L-NP Support Up, But ALP Retains Lead
| Finding No. 3751 -
June 17, 2004 |
In early June, support for the ALP fell 2% to 43.5% whilst L-NP support was up 2.5% to 42.5%. On a two-party preferred basis, support for the ALP was down 2% to 53% while Coalition support was 47%. If a Federal election had been held in early June the ALP would have won easily, the latest Morgan Poll finds.
Among the minor parties, support for the Greens was 7% (unchanged), Australian Democrats 1.5% (down 1.5%), One Nation 1% (unchanged) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 4.5% (up 1%).
In early June, on the important question of who the electorate thinks will win the next election, the L-NP leads the ALP by 6%, as the gap widened. Now 46% (up 1.5%) think L-NP will win while 40% (down 1%) think the ALP will win (14% can’t say).
During the polling period:
- Australian Guantanamo Bay prisoner David Hicks was charged with conspiracy to commit war crimes, attempted murder and aiding the enemy on June 11.
- During Prime Minister John Howard’s visit to the White House, US President George W. Bush criticised Opposition leader Mark Latham’s policy on Iraq saying withdrawing Australian troops from Iraq would be “disastrous”.
- Prime Minister John Howard and Defence Minister Robert Hill admitted the public had been misled over when the Australian military became aware of the abuse of prisoners in Iraq . Whilst it was revealed that reports were made to the Defence Department about the abuse as early as October last year, Mr Howard claims he did not know until April this year.
- Despite heated local opposition, former Midnight Oil singer and well-known political activist Peter Garrett has been “fast-tracked” to the safe Sydney seat of Kingsford Smith as a Federal Labor candidate.
Special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research in which respondents gave their reason for voting was conducted on June 5/6, 2004.
Liberal Party supporters were typically satisfied with the Government’s performance, particularly on the economic front, and felt that the Prime Minister was doing a good job. Comments included: “The Liberals are good financial managers”, “I like the conservative approach to financial spending and planning”, “Interest rates are sensible and unemployment is down” and “John Howard seems like a more stable leader than Mark Latham” .
Other Liberal Party supporters were against change and felt things were going well: ”They have proved themselves over the years”, “Quite satisfied with the way things are going” and “Stable Government, don’t trust the Opposition” .
ALP supporters typically preferred the Party’s policies and felt that it was a better Party to look after people. Comments included: “Social justice policies are better including health and education”, “They will help people who are less fortunate”, “Better deal for workers, especially those on lower incomes” and “They have people friendly policies”.
Many more ALP supporters mentioned the war in Iraq than did Liberal Party supporters with comments such as : “I am totally against Iraq invasion”, “Don’t like Howard’s decision over Iraq ” and “Felt they should not have gone to Iraq ” .
Some ALP supporters expressed dissatisfaction with Prime Minister, John Howard: “I don’t think Howard is a good leader”, “I think John Howard has made too many mistakes”,” I want to get rid of John Howard” and “I don’t approve of what John Howard has done”. Other ALP supporters thought it was time for a new Government: “About time we had a change of Government”, “Need a change” and “Time for a change” , were common responses.
Gary Morgan says:
“The ALP has maintained a winning position in every face to face Morgan Poll we have conducted this year.
The Iraq situation (weapons of mass destruction, prisoner abuse and continued trouble in Iraq ) has significantly damaged Mr Howard’s image. However he is still seen as a strong leader, and stronger than Mr Latham. ”
Preferences of supporters of the Greens (ALP — 83% cf L-NP — 17%), the Australian Democrats (ALP 63% cf L-NP - 37%) and Other Parties and Independents (ALP — 63% cf L-NP — 37%) favoured the Opposition. Supporters of One Nation (L-NP 64% cf ALP 36%) favoured the Coalition.
This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekends of June 5/6 and 12/13, 2004, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,272 electors. Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?” Of all electors surveyed, 6% (up 1%) did not name a party.
Think will win
Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who do you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"
|
L-NP |
ALP |
Can't Say |
|
% |
% |
% |
|
November 22/23, 2003 |
68 |
22 |
10 |
|
November 29/30, 2003 |
66 |
21 |
13 |
|
December 6/7, 2003 |
60 |
24 |
15 |
|
December 13/14 & December 20/21, 2003 |
57 |
29 |
14 |
|
January 3/4 & January 10/11, 2004 |
59 |
28 |
13 |
|
January 17/18 & January 24/25, 2004 |
55 |
32 |
13 |
|
January 31/ February 1 & February 7/8, 2004 |
51 |
36 |
13 |
|
February 14/15 & February 21/22, 2004 |
43 |
42 |
15 |
|
February 28/29 & March 6/7, 2004 |
45 |
40 |
15 |
|
March 13/14 & March 20/21, 2004 |
41.5 |
43.5 |
15 |
|
March 27/28 & April 3/4, 2004 |
43.5 |
45.5 |
11 |
| April 10/11 & April 17/18, 2004 |
48.5 |
38 |
13.5 |
|
April 24/25 & May 1/2, 2004 |
48.5 |
38.5 |
13 |
| May 15/16, 2004 |
52.5 |
35 |
12.5 |
| May 22/23 & May 29/30, 2004 |
44.5 |
41 |
14.5 |
| June 5/6 & June 12/13, 2004 |
46 |
40 |
14 |
For further information:
|
Gary Morgan: |
Mobile: 0411 129 094 |
Michele Levine: |
Mobile: 0411 129 093 |
|
Karen Schwensen: |
Mobile: 0401 994 204 |
|
|
VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)
| PRIMARY VOTE |
L-NP |
ALP |
Aust.
Dem. # |
The
Greens |
One
Nation # |
Ind./
Others |
| Election March 2, 1996 |
47.3 (8.6) |
38.8 |
6.8 |
1.7 |
N/A |
5.4 |
| Election October 3, 1998 1 |
39.5 (5.3) |
40.1 |
5.1 |
2.1 |
8.5 |
4.7 |
| Election November 10, 2001 |
43 (5.6) |
37.8 |
5.4 |
4.4 |
4.3 |
5.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| MORGAN POLL 2004 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| January 3/4 & January 10/11 |
40(2) |
45 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
2 |
4 |
| January 17/18 & January 24/25 |
39 (3) |
44 |
2.5 |
8 |
2 |
4.5 |
| January 31/ February 1 & February 7/8 |
38 (3) |
48 |
2.5 |
5.5 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| February 14/15 & February 21/22 |
40.5 (3) |
45.5 |
2 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
4 |
| February 28/29 & March 6/7 |
39(3) |
46 |
2.5 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
| March 13/14 & March 20/21 |
39.5(2) |
45.5 |
2 |
7 |
1 |
5 |
|
March 27/28 & April 3/4 |
39.5(3.5) |
43.5 |
2.0 |
9.5 |
1.5 |
4 |
| April 10/11 & April 17/18 |
41(1.5) |
45 |
2 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
3 |
|
April 24/25 & May 1/2, 2004 |
42(2.5) |
44 |
2 |
7 |
1 |
4 |
| May 15/16 |
42.5 |
41 |
2.5 |
8 |
2 |
4 |
| May 22/23 & May 29/30, 2004 |
40 (2.5) |
45.5 |
3 |
7 |
1 |
3.5 |
| June 5/6 & June 12/13, 2004 |
42.5 (2.5) |
43.5 |
1.5 |
7 |
1 |
4.5 |
Note: National Party results are in brackets
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution
1 October 3, 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle. |
| TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE |
|
L-NP |
ALP |
| Election March 2, 1996 |
53.6 |
46.4 |
| Election October 3, 1998 1 |
49 |
51 |
| Election November 10, 2001 |
51 |
49 |
|
|
|
| MORGAN POLL 2004 |
|
|
| January 3/4 & January 10/11 |
44.5 |
55.5 |
| January 17/18 & January 24/25 |
45 |
55 |
| January 31/ February 1 & February 7/8 |
43.5 |
56.5 |
| February 14/15 & February 21/22 |
44.5 |
55.5 |
| February 28/29 & March 6/7 |
44.5 |
55.5 |
| March 13/14 & March 20/21 |
44.5 |
55.5 |
|
March 27/28 & April 3/4 |
45 |
55 |
| April 10/11 & April 17/18 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
|
April 24/25 & May 1/2, 2004 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
| May 15/16 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
| May 22/23 & May 29/30 |
45 |
55 |
| June 5/6 & June 12/13, 2004 |
47 |
53 |
|
NP “two-Party” estimate includes those who didn’t vote ALP or give their preference to the ALP. If the Newcastle two-Party preferred vote for the October 3, 1998 election is excluded the Australia-wide “two-Party” preferred vote is L-NP - 49.0% cf ALP - 51.0%. |
| TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES |
|
April 24/25
& May 1/2,
2004 |
May 15/16,
2004 |
May 22/23
& May 29/30, 2004 |
June 5/6 & June 12/13, 2004 |
| MORGAN POLL |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
| Australian Democrats # |
34.5 |
65.5 |
29.5 |
70.5 |
20.5 |
79.5 |
37 |
63 |
| The Greens |
12 |
88 |
18 |
82 |
18.5 |
81.5 |
17 |
83 |
| One Nation # |
57.5 |
42.5 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
64 |
36 |
| Independent/ Other |
44.5 |
55.5 |
28.5 |
71.5 |
54 |
46 |
37 |
63 |
| # Sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution |
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution
Sample: 2,272 electors interviewed face-to-face on June 5/6 & June 12/13, 2004
6% (up 1%) did not name a party.
View Federal Voting Intention Trend
Finding No. 3751 is taken from Computer Report No. 1967 |
