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In the latest Morgan Poll before the Iraqi handover, support for the ALP rose 2% to 45.5% whilst L-NP support fell 1.5% to 41%. On a two-party preferred basis, support for the ALP was up 1% to 54% while Coalition support was 46%. If a Federal election had been held in late June before the Iraqi handover, the ALP would have won easily.

However, a special telephone Morgan Poll taken immediately after the US formally handed over sovereignty of Iraq to the interim Iraqi Government, shows Mr Howard is enjoying increased voter confidence. A clear majority of electors now believe Mr Howard (55%) would make a better Prime Minister than Mr Latham (34%). The gap has widened between the two leaders since the electorate was last asked this question in early June, when 50% of electors said Mr Howard would make a better Prime Minister and 38% said Mr Latham. Now 55% (up 7% since early June to 55%) approve of the way Mr Howard is handling his job as Prime Minister, while 50% (down 6%) approve of the way Mr Latham is handling his job as Opposition Leader. Mr Howard’s image has also improved on all dimensions surveyed — and he is now ahead of Mr Latham on the critical issue of honesty and trust (36% Mr Howard cf 33% Mr Latham).

More electors now approve of the way Mr Howard is handling his job as Prime Minister (55%, up 7%) than Mr Latham’s handling of his job as Opposition Leader (50%). Mr Howard’s approval rating is still 10% below the high of 65% in mid-April 2003. In April 2003, only 28% of electors disapproved of Mr Howard’s job performance, compared to 38% saying they disapproved in the latest telephone poll.

When asked to choose between Mr Howard and Mr Latham on nine specific issues, preferences for Mr Howard have either risen or remained steady on all issues. Mr Latham’s approval has dropped on all fronts, most significantly, more electors now think Mr Howard is more ‘honest and trustworthy’ than Mr Latham (36% Mr Howard cf 33% Mr Latham). Mr Latham is equal with Mr Howard only on ‘showing more fairness to everyone’ (39% Mr Latham cf 39% Mr Howard) and as ‘better at looking after families’ needs’ (42% cf 42%).

Gary Morgan says:

“Prior to the Iraqi handover, the ALP was clearly ahead of the L-NP, and in a winning electoral position. However, on the important question of who the electorate ‘thinks will win’ the next election, the gap had widened — the L-NP was ahead of the ALP by 13.5% (this foreshadows that the next telephone polls will be biased toward the L-NP — even having them in a winning position).

The Iraqi handover has seen a strong swing toward Mr Howard, according to the latest Morgan Poll telephone poll, the first poll taken after the Iraqi handover. However, the important poll to watch will be the next face-to-face Morgan Poll, which will provide a clearer picture of the electorate’s considered response after the Iraqi handover.”

The Morgan Poll telephone poll was conducted on June 30/July 1, 2004 with 593 electors Australia-wide. The latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekends of June 19/20 and 26/27, 2004, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,264 electors. Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?” Of all electors surveyed, 5.5% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.

For further information:

Gary Morgan: Office (03) 9224 5213    Mobile 0411 129 094    Home (03) 9419 3242

Michele Levine: Office (03) 9224 5215    Mobile 0411 129 093    Home (03) 9817 3066   
 

Better Prime Minister

Respondents were asked "Thinking of Mr howard and Mr Latham. In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister - Mr howard or Mr Latham?"

			Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	June 2/3 2004	June 30/ July 1 2004	L-NP	ALP	Aust Dem.#	The Greens	Ind/ Other#	No Answer#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Howard	50	55	92	20	35	15	39	17
Latham	38	34	3	71	37	65	33	16
Someone else	1	1	1	1	-	3	4	-
Can't say	11	10	4	8	28	17	24	67
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Approval of Mr Howard

Respondents were asked "Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mr Howard is handling his job as Prime Minister?"

				Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	April 11/12 2003	June 2/3 2004	June 30/ July 1 2004	L-NP	ALP	Aust Dem.#	The Greens	Ind/ Other#	No Answer#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	65	48	55	88	27	25	13	34	22
Disapprove	28	45	38	6	66	64	83	61	29
Can’t say	7	7	7	6	7	11	4	5	49
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Approval of Mr Latham

Respondents were asked "Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mr Latham is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition"

			Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	June 2/3 2004	June 30/ July 1 2004	L-NP	ALP	Aust Dem.#	The Greens	Ind/ Other#	No Answer#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	56	50	36	72	56	47	49	23
Disapprove	32	37	53	14	39	38	44	22
Can’t say	12	13	11	14	5	15	7	55
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

				Equal/
		Howard	Latham	Neither	Can't Say
	2004	%	%	%	%
Who is the stronger leader?	Mar 31/Apr 1	55	32	4	9
	May 26/27	61	25	5	9
	June 30/July 1	64	23	3	10
Who would be better at managing	Mar 31/Apr 1	55	25	4	16
Australia's economy?	May 12	58	27	6	9
	May 19/20	56	31	6	7
	June 30/July 1	62	23	4	11
Who would you trust more to keep	Mar 31/Apr 1	51	32	8	9
Australia safe and secure?	May 12	53	33	9	5
	May 19/20	51	33	8	8
	June 30/July 1	57	30	5	8
Who is more capable	Mar 31/Apr 1	49	27	8	16
and intelligent?	May 26/27	45	25	14	16
	June 30/July 1	51	23	10	16
Who makes clearer	Mar 31/Apr 1	47	34	6	13
policy statements	May 26/27	54	26	8	12
	June 30/July 1	56	23	8	13
Who shows more fairness to	Mar 31/Apr 1	35	46	5	14
everyone?	May 26/27	33	45	10	12
	June 30/July 1	39	39	6	16
Who would be better at looking	Mar 31/Apr 1	34	50	5	11
after your family's needs?	May 12	43	44	6	7
	May 19/20	39	47	7	7
	June 30/July 1	42	42	5	11
Who is more honest and	Mar 31/Apr 1	32	35	11	22
trustworthy?	May 26/27	32	37	15	16
	June 30/July 1	36	33	13	18
Who would be best for minimising	Mar 31/Apr 1	29	39	15	17
the tax you pay?	May 12	44	38	9	9
	May 19/20	37	38	12	13
	June 30/July 1	38	31	9	22

Think will win

Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who do you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"

	L-NP	ALP	Can't Say
	%	%	%
November 22/23, 2003	68	22	10
November 29/30, 2003	66	21	13
December 6/7, 2003	60	24	15
December 13/14 & December 20/21, 2003	57	29	14
January 3/4 & January 10/11, 2004	59	28	13
January 17/18 & January 24/25, 2004	55	32	13
January 31/ February 1 & February 7/8, 2004	51	36	13
February 14/15 & February 21/22, 2004	43	42	15
February 28/29 & March 6/7, 2004	45	40	15
March 13/14 & March 20/21, 2004	41.5	43.5	15
March 27/28 & April 3/4, 2004	43.5	45.5	11
April 10/11 & April 17/18, 2004	48.5	38	13.5
April 24/25 & May 1/2, 2004	48.5	38.5	13
May 15/16, 2004	52.5	35	12.5
May 22/23 & May 29/30, 2004	44.5	41	14.5
June 5/6 & June 12/13, 2004	46	40	14
June 19/20 & June 26/27, 2004	49	35.5	15.5

VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

PRIMARY VOTE	L-NP	ALP	Aust. Dem. #	The Greens	One Nation #	Ind./ Others
Election March 2, 1996	47.3 (8.6)	38.8	6.8	1.7	N/A	5.4
Election October 3, 1998 1	39.5 (5.3)	40.1	5.1	2.1	8.5	4.7
Election November 10, 2001	43 (5.6)	37.8	5.4	4.4	4.3	5.1
MORGAN POLL 2004
January 3/4 & January 10/11	40(2)	45	1.5	7.5	2	4
January 17/18 & January 24/25	39 (3)	44	2.5	8	2	4.5
January 31/ February 1 & February 7/8	38 (3)	48	2.5	5.5	1.5	4.5
February 14/15 & February 21/22	40.5 (3)	45.5	2	6.5	1.5	4
February 28/29 & March 6/7	39(3)	46	2.5	7.5	1.5	3.5
March 13/14 & March 20/21	39.5(2)	45.5	2	7	1	5
March 27/28 & April 3/4	39.5(3.5)	43.5	2.0	9.5	1.5	4
April 10/11 & April 17/18	41(1.5)	45	2	7.5	1.5	3
April 24/25 & May 1/2	42(2.5)	44	2	7	1	4
May 15/16	42.5	41	2.5	8	2	4
May 22/23 & May 29/30	40 (2.5)	45.5	3	7	1	3.5
June 5/6 & June 12/13	42.5 (2.5)	43.5	1.5	7	1	4.5
June 19/20 & June 26/27	41 (3.5)	45.5	2	6.5	1	4
Note: National Party results are in brackets # Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution 1 October 3, 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE
	L-NP	ALP
Election March 2, 1996	53.6	46.4
Election October 3, 1998 1	49	51
Election November 10, 2001	51	49
MORGAN POLL 2004
January 3/4 & January 10/11	44.5	55.5
January 17/18 & January 24/25	45	55
January 31/ February 1 & February 7/8	43.5	56.5
February 14/15 & February 21/22	44.5	55.5
February 28/29 & March 6/7	44.5	55.5
March 13/14 & March 20/21	44.5	55.5
March 27/28 & April 3/4	45	55
April 10/11 & April 17/18	45.5	54.5
April 24/25 & May 1/2	46.5	53.5
May 15/16	47.5	52.5
May 22/23 & May 29/30	45	55
June 5/6 & June 12/13	47	53
June 19/20 & June 26/27	46	54
NP “two-Party” estimate includes those who didn’t vote ALP or give their preference to the ALP. If the Newcastle two-Party preferred vote for the October 3, 1998 election is excluded the Australia-wide “two-Party” preferred vote is L-NP - 49.0% cf ALP - 51.0%.

TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES
	May 15/16, 2004		May 22/23 & May 29/30, 2004		June 5/6 & June 12/13, 2004		June 5/6 & June 12/13, 2004
MORGAN POLL	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP
Australian Democrats #	29.5	70.5	20.5	79.5	37	63	46.5	53.5
The Greens	18	82	18.5	81.5	17	83	13.5	86.5
One Nation #	47.5	52.5	48.5	51.5	64	36	63.5	36.5
Independent/ Other	28.5	71.5	54	46	37	63	50.5	49.5
# Sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution

# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution
Sample: 1,264 electors interviewed face-to-face on June 19/20 & June 26/27, 2004

5.5% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.

View Federal Voting Intention Trend

“2004 Federal Budget Improves Mr Howard’s Image And L-NP Support”/news/polls/2004/3740/

“Support for 2004 Federal Budget Declines Mr Howard’s Image Slips”/news/polls/2004/3743/

Finding No. 3755 is taken from Computer Report No. 1971

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