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COMPANY ONLINE STORE PRODUCTS SERVICES INDUSTRIES MORGAN POLL PAPERS PRESS RELEASES CONSUMER CONFIDENCE READERSHIP UNEMPLOYMENT THE REACTOR 
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ALP Now Ahead But More Electors Think L-NP Will Win
In mid-July, primary support for the ALP rose 2.5% to 46% whilst L-NP support was down 1% to 41.5%. On a two-party preferred basis, support for the ALP was up 2.5% to 54% while Coalition support fell 2.5% to 46%. If a Federal election had been held in mid-July the ALP would have won, the latest Morgan Poll finds. Among the minor parties, support for the Greens was 8% (up 1%), Australian Democrats 2% (unchanged), Other Parties and Independent Candidates 2% (down 2.5%) and One Nation 0.5% (unchanged). In mid-July, on the important question of who the electorate thinks will win the next election, the gap between the two major parties widened further, with the L-NP leading the ALP by 22%. Now 54% (up 5%) think L-NP will win while 32% (down 3%) think the ALP will win (14% can’t say). During the polling period:
Special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research in which respondents gave their reason for voting was conducted on July 10/11, 2004. Many ALP supporters mentioned the lack of honesty from the Liberal Party as their reason for voting against the current Government. Comments included: “I don’t trust the Prime Minister”, “I’m disillusioned with Howard”, “Liberals are dishonest and think the average Aussie is stupid” , “We should rely on ourselves, not the Americans” and “Like children overboard — too many lies being told by Howard.” The war in Iraq was also mentioned by many ALP supporters. “Not happy with the Liberals over the war”, “A chance Labor could actually change something — agree with their views on Iraq ”, “I don’t like Australia being in Iraq ” and “Howard has upset me with the war” were common responses. Some ALP supporters mentioned Peter Costello as their reasons for supporting the ALP, saying “The thought of Peter Costello as Prime Minister scares me” and “We don’t want Costello to be Prime Minister” . Others agreed with Labor’s addition of Peter Garrett to the party, saying “Peter Garrett increases the vision and foresight for the future” and “I really support the addition of Garrett to the party.” Liberal Party supporters were typically satisfied with the Government’s performance, particularly on the economic front, and felt that the Prime Minister was doing a good job. Comments included: “They’re strong with economic policy — a family based party”, “Sound leadership and economic experience”, “Think John Howard is a good bloke, the country is stable, not too much unemployment” and “More competent and intelligent leadership and stability”. Other Liberal Party supporters were against change and mentioned their uncertainty of Labor’s policies: “Don’t like Leader of the Opposition — unclear policies”, “Liberals are a known entity — uncertain about Opposition — not sure about policies” and “I’ve always voted Labor but I prefer Howard as Prime Minister”. Gary Morgan says “ Despite high consumer confidence (128.9) (see www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2004/332/) and a large majority of electors expecting that the L-NP will win the next election (54%), the last week has seen a real drop in support for the L-NP. This is despite the Federal Government’s substantial advertising campaign on the benefits of Medicare. The Iraq situation is obviously a concern to the electorate as shown by their comments; and Richard Armitage’s comments on the ALP have not helped the L-NP Government. However, although the ALP is in front today, much can happen during the campaign.” Preferences of minor parties were divided, with supporters of the Greens (ALP — 85% cf L-NP — 15%) and Australian Democrats (ALP — 69% cf L-NP — 31%) favoring the Opposition while supporters of One Nation (L-NP — 84% cf ALP — 16%) and Other Parties and Independents (L-NP — 58% cf ALP — 42%) favored the Coalition. This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekend of July 10/11, 2004, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,055 electors. Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?” Of all electors surveyed, 4.5% (down 2%) did not name a party. Think will win Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who do you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"
For further information:
VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution 4.5% (down 2%) did not name a party. View Federal Voting Intention Trend
“2004 Federal Budget Improves Mr Howard’s Image And L-NP Support”/news/polls/2004/3740/ “Support for 2004 Federal Budget Declines Mr Howard’s Image Slips”/news/polls/2004/3743/ Finding No. 3761 is taken from Computer Report No. 1977 |
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