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In early August, amidst heated debate over the Free Trade Agreement, support for the ALP on a two-party preferred basis was virtually unchanged at 53.5% (up 0.5%), while Coalition support fell 0.5% to 46.5%. Primary support for the ALP rose 1% to 43% whilst L-NP support fell 1.5% to 40%. If a Federal election had been held in early August the ALP would have won, the latest Morgan Poll finds.

Among the minor parties, support for the Greens was 8% (up 0.5%), Other Parties and Independent Candidates 5.5% (unchanged), Australian Democrats 2.5% (unchanged), and One Nation 1% (unchanged).

In early August, on the important question of who the electorate thinks will win the next election, the L-NP is leading the ALP by 19%. Now 52.5% (up 3%) of electors think the L-NP will win the next Federal election while 33.5% (down 2.5%) think the ALP will win (14% can’t say).

Gary Morgan says:

“Special Roy Morgan qualitative research shows that many electors are supporting the ALP because of their concern over the situation in Iraq and Mr Howard’s credibility.

However, those choosing to support the Coalition express uncertainty over the Oppositions policies and leadership capabilities.

Both parties are competing in a volatile political environment and for this reason much can happen between now and when the election is held. The election, whenever held, will be close.”

During the polling period:

•  While the US Free Trade Agreement (FTA) had been signed by President Bush, a stand-off continued between Prime Minister John Howard and Opposition Leader Mark Latham over a Labor amendment designed to safeguard the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme. The Government had already agreed to one Labor amendment to protect the amount of local content in the Australian media.

•  Foreign Minister Alexander Downer attracted criticism from the Philippines and Spain by blaming the withdrawal of Spanish and Filipino troops for encouraging terrorists to threaten Australia .

•  Mr Howard celebrated his 65 th birthday reiterating that he has no plans to retire.

•  The United Nations Security Council passed a resolution warning Sudan to end humanitarian atrocities in Dafur. The Australian Government has said it would be likely to contribute troops to any UN peacekeeping mission in the area.

•  Foreign Minister Alexander Downer claimed negotiations with East Timor over maritime boundaries were in jeopardy because of comments by Mr Latham that if Labor is elected they would restart the talks.

•  Following a security scare on board an international flight from Sydney , the Federal Government announced it will review how much information passengers should be told during an emergency situations on flights.

Preferences of minor parties were divided, with supporters of the Greens (ALP — 74% cf L-NP — 26%), Australian Democrats (ALP — 65% cf L-NP — 35%) and One Nation (ALP — 52% cf LNP — 48%) favoring the Opposition while supporters of Other Parties and Independents (L-NP — 50.5% cf ALP — 49.5%) favored the Coalition.

Special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research in which respondents gave their reason for voting was conducted on August 7/8, 2004.

Many Liberal supporters mentioned their lack of confidence in the ALP as their reason for voting for the current Government. Comments included: “I don’t think the Opposition is united” , “ALP too shaky” , “Not sure what the Opposition leader’s policies are” and “ Labor Party too unsettled” .

Liberal supporters were happy with the performance of the Government, and with John Howard’s leadership; “I like what the Prime Minister is doing with this country” , “I like the strength of a leader who doesn’t waver under pressure” , “John Howard has more credibility than Mark Latham” and “John Howard is better at managing the economy and protecting the country.”

Lack of honesty from the Liberal Party was a reason given by many ALP supporters for voting against the current Government. Comments included: “Don’t like the deception of the current government”, “Too many unexplained mistakes by Howard” and “I don’t believe the current Prime Minister tells the truth” .

With debate over the US Free Trade Agreement continuing in Parliament, many ALP supporters let their views be known, with comments such as “the health issue in the US Free Trade Agreement” , “Liberals are too Americanised” and “Not happy with John Howard’s alliance with the USA ” .

The War in Iraq was also mentioned by many ALP supporters. “John Howard did the wrong thing going into Iraq”, “Against Liberals because they made a decision to go to war”, “I don’t like Howard and his war policies — don’t like how he follows Bush” and “I don’t like them following Bush like puppets” were common responses .

This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekends of July 31/ August 1 and August 7/8, 2004, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,909 electors. Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?” Of all electors surveyed, 4.5% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.

Think will win

Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who do you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"

	L-NP	ALP	Can't Say
	%	%	%
November 22/23, 2003	68	22	10
November 29/30, 2003	66	21	13
December 6/7, 2003	60	24	15
December 13/14 & December 20/21, 2003	57	29	14
January 3/4 & January 10/11, 2004	59	28	13
January 17/18 & January 24/25, 2004	55	32	13
January 31/ February 1 & February 7/8, 2004	51	36	13
February 14/15 & February 21/22, 2004	43	42	15
February 28/29 & March 6/7, 2004	45	40	15
March 13/14 & March 20/21, 2004	41.5	43.5	15
March 27/28 & April 3/4, 2004	43.5	45.5	11
April 10/11 & April 17/18, 2004	48.5	38	13.5
April 24/25 & May 1/2, 2004	48.5	38.5	13
May 15/16, 2004	52.5	35	12.5
May 22/23 & May 29/30, 2004	44.5	41	14.5
June 5/6 & June 12/13, 2004	46	40	14
June 19/20 & June 26/27, 2004	49	35.5	15.5
July 3/4, 2004	49	35	16
July 10/11, 2004	54	32	14
July 17/18 & 24/25, 2004	49.5	36	14.5
July 31/ August 1 & August 7/8, 2004	52.5	33.5	14

For further information:

Gary Morgan:	Office (03) 9224 5213	Mobile 0411 129 094	Home (03) 9419 3242
Michele Levine	Office (03) 9224 5215	Mobile 0411 129 093	Home (03) 9817 3066

VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

PRIMARY VOTE	L-NP	ALP	Aust. Dem. #	The Greens	One Nation #	Ind./ Others
Election March 2, 1996	47.3 (8.6)	38.8	6.8	1.7	N/A	5.4
Election October 3, 1998 1	39.5 (5.3)	40.1	5.1	2.1	8.5	4.7
Election November 10, 2001	43 (5.6)	37.8	5.4	4.4	4.3	5.1
MORGAN POLL 2004
January 3/4 & January 10/11	40(2)	45	1.5	7.5	2	4
January 17/18 & January 24/25	39 (3)	44	2.5	8	2	4.5
January 31/ February 1 & February 7/8	38 (3)	48	2.5	5.5	1.5	4.5
February 14/15 & February 21/22	40.5 (3)	45.5	2	6.5	1.5	4
February 28/29 & March 6/7	39(3)	46	2.5	7.5	1.5	3.5
March 13/14 & March 20/21	39.5(2)	45.5	2	7	1	5
March 27/28 & April 3/4	39.5(3.5)	43.5	2.0	9.5	1.5	4
April 10/11 & April 17/18	41(1.5)	45	2	7.5	1.5	3
April 24/25 & May 1/2	42(2.5)	44	2	7	1	4
May 15/16	42.5	41	2.5	8	2	4
May 22/23 & May 29/30	40 (2.5)	45.5	3	7	1	3.5
June 5/6 & June 12/13	42.5 (2.5)	43.5	1.5	7	1	4.5
June 19/20 & June 26/27	41 (3.5)	45.5	2	6.5	1	4
July 3/4	42.5 (2.5)	43.5	2	7	0.5	4.5
July 10/11	41.5 (2.5)	46	2	8	0.5	2
July 17/18 & 24/25	41.5 (2.5)	42	2.5	7.5	1	5.5
July 31/ August 1 & August 7/8	40 (1.5)	43	2.5	8	1	5.5
Note: National Party results are in brackets # Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution 1 October 3, 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE
	L-NP	ALP
Election March 2, 1996	53.6	46.4
Election October 3, 1998 1	49	51
Election November 10, 2001	51	49
MORGAN POLL 2004
January 3/4 & January 10/11	44.5	55.5
January 17/18 & January 24/25	45	55
January 31/ February 1 & February 7/8	43.5	56.5
February 14/15 & February 21/22	44.5	55.5
February 28/29 & March 6/7	44.5	55.5
March 13/14 & March 20/21	44.5	55.5
March 27/28 & April 3/4	45	55
April 10/11 & April 17/18	45.5	54.5
April 24/25 & May 1/2	46.5	53.5
May 15/16	47.5	52.5
May 22/23 & May 29/30	45	55
June 5/6 & June 12/13	47	53
June 19/20 & June 26/27	46	54
July 3/4	48.5	51.5
July 10/11	46	54
July 17/18 & 24/25	47	53
July 31/ August 1 & August 7/8	46.5	53.5
NP “two-Party” estimate includes those who didn’t vote ALP or give their preference to the ALP. If the Newcastle two-Party preferred vote for the October 3, 1998 election is excluded the Australia-wide “two-Party” preferred vote is L-NP - 49.0% cf ALP - 51.0%.

TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES
	July 3/4, 2004		July 10/11, 2004		July 17/18 & July 24/25, 2004		July 31/ August 1 & August 7/8, 2004
MORGAN POLL	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP
Australian Democrats #	64	36	31	69	33.5	66.5	35	65
The Greens	14	86	15	85	16	84	26	74
One Nation #	27	73	84	16	57	43	48	52
Independent/ Other	63	37	58	42	46.5	53.5	50.5	49.5
# Sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution

# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution
Sample: 1,909 electors interviewed face-to-face on July 31/ August 1 & August 7/8, 2004

4.5% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.

View Federal Voting Intention Trend

Finding No. 3768 is taken from Computer Report No. 1981

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