ALP would easily win Federal Election
Not a conducive time for L-NP to call the Federal Election
| Finding No. 3772 -
This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekends of August 14/15 and 21/22, 2004, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,926 electors. Electors were asked: “If a Federal Election for the House of Representatives were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?” Of all electors surveyed, 5.5% (up 1%) did not name a party.:
August 28, 2004 |
In late August, as Prime Minister John Howard faced increased criticism over the Children Overboard issue, the two-party-support for the ALP was up 2% to 55.5% while Coalition support was down to 44.5% - its lowest since March, 2004. Primary support for the ALP rose 0.5% to 43.5% whilst L-NP support fell 1% to 39%. If a Federal election had been held in late August the ALP would have won easily, the latest Morgan Poll finds.
Among the minor parties, support for the Greens was 9% (up 1%), Other Parties and Independent Candidates 5% (down 0.5%), Australian Democrats 2% (down 0.5%), and One Nation 1.5% (up 0.5%).
In late August, on the important question of who the electorate thinks will win the next election, the L-NP is leading the ALP by 17%. Now 50% (down 2.5%) of electors think the L-NP will win the next Federal election while 33% (down 0.5%) think the ALP will win (17% can’t say).
Gary Morgan says:
"With serious questions over honesty in sport (drugs) and politics (lies) over the last two weeks, support for the L-NP Government has dropped to its lowest level since March.
"It must be noted that in March more electors expected the ALP than the L-NP to win the next Federal Election. While today more electors expect the L-NP to win. This is a particularly dangerous situation for the L-NP - and not conducive to the Prime Minister calling the Federal Election. Disenchanted L-NP voters will feel comfortable registering a "protest vote" against the Prime Minister and the Government without believing that there is a serious chance that the L-NP will be ousted and an ALP Government elected."
During the polling period:
• Prime Minister John Howard agreed to accept Labor's amendments to Australia 's Free Trade Agreement (FTA).
• Former Defence advisor Mike Scrafton revealed he told Mr Howard prior to the November 2001 Federal election that there was no evidence to support the claim that asylum seekers were throwing their children overboard.
• Opposition Leader Mark Latham spent a brief time in hospital with pancreatitis.
• Oil prices reached record levels in London and New York as threats of sabotage in Iraq left oil supply in uncertainty. As a result, Australia ’s major airlines implemented fuel levies.
• Liberal candidate for Parramatta, Ross Cameron — who has campaigned strongly on Christian and moral values — publicly admitted cheating on his wife.
• Mr Howard unveiled a $36 million biodiversity policy, negotiated with South Australian Senator, Meg Lees, aimed at areas around the country that are under immediate threat.
Preferences of minor parties were divided, with supporters of the Greens (ALP — 83.5% cf L-NP — 16.5%), Australian Democrats (ALP — 80% cf L-NP — 20%) and Other Parties and Independents (ALP — 61.5% cf LNP — 38.5%) favoring the Opposition while supporters of One Nation (L-NP — 65.5% cf ALP — 34.5%) favored the Coalition.
This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekends of August 14/15 and 21/22, 2004, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,926 electors. Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?” Of all electors surveyed, 5.5% (up 1%) did not name a party.
Think will win
Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who do you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"
|
L-NP |
ALP |
Can't Say |
|
% |
% |
% |
|
November 22/23, 2003 |
68 |
22 |
10 |
|
November 29/30, 2003 |
66 |
21 |
13 |
|
December 6/7, 2003 |
60 |
24 |
15 |
|
December 13/14 & December 20/21, 2003 |
57 |
29 |
14 |
|
January 3/4 & January 10/11, 2004 |
59 |
28 |
13 |
|
January 17/18 & January 24/25, 2004 |
55 |
32 |
13 |
|
January 31/ February 1 & February 7/8, 2004 |
51 |
36 |
13 |
|
February 14/15 & February 21/22, 2004 |
43 |
42 |
15 |
|
February 28/29 & March 6/7, 2004 |
45 |
40 |
15 |
|
March 13/14 & March 20/21, 2004 |
41.5 |
43.5 |
15 |
|
March 27/28 & April 3/4, 2004 |
43.5 |
45.5 |
11 |
| April 10/11 & April 17/18, 2004 |
48.5 |
38 |
13.5 |
|
April 24/25 & May 1/2, 2004 |
48.5 |
38.5 |
13 |
| May 15/16, 2004 |
52.5 |
35 |
12.5 |
| May 22/23 & May 29/30, 2004 |
44.5 |
41 |
14.5 |
| June 5/6 & June 12/13, 2004 |
46 |
40 |
14 |
| June 19/20 & June 26/27, 2004 |
49 |
35.5 |
15.5 |
| July 3/4, 2004 |
49 |
35 |
16 |
| July 10/11, 2004 |
54 |
32 |
14 |
| July 17/18 & 24/25, 2004 |
49.5 |
36 |
14.5 |
| July 31/ August 1 & August 7/8, 2004 |
52.5 |
33.5 |
14 |
| August 14/15 & 21/22, 2004 |
50 |
33 |
17 |
For further information:
|
Gary Morgan/ Michele Levine: |
Mobile - 00 11 1 609 947 8105 |
|
Karen Schwensen: |
Mobile - 0401 994 204 |
VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)
| PRIMARY VOTE |
L-NP |
ALP |
Aust.
Dem. # |
The
Greens |
One
Nation # |
Ind./
Others |
| Election March 2, 1996 |
47.3 (8.6) |
38.8 |
6.8 |
1.7 |
N/A |
5.4 |
| Election October 3, 1998 1 |
39.5 (5.3) |
40.1 |
5.1 |
2.1 |
8.5 |
4.7 |
| Election November 10, 2001 |
43 (5.6) |
37.8 |
5.4 |
4.4 |
4.3 |
5.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| MORGAN POLL 2004 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| January 3/4 & January 10/11 |
40(2) |
45 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
2 |
4 |
| January 17/18 & January 24/25 |
39 (3) |
44 |
2.5 |
8 |
2 |
4.5 |
| January 31/ February 1 & February 7/8 |
38 (3) |
48 |
2.5 |
5.5 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
| February 14/15 & February 21/22 |
40.5 (3) |
45.5 |
2 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
4 |
| February 28/29 & March 6/7 |
39(3) |
46 |
2.5 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
| March 13/14 & March 20/21 |
39.5(2) |
45.5 |
2 |
7 |
1 |
5 |
|
March 27/28 & April 3/4 |
39.5(3.5) |
43.5 |
2.0 |
9.5 |
1.5 |
4 |
| April 10/11 & April 17/18 |
41(1.5) |
45 |
2 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
3 |
|
April 24/25 & May 1/2 |
42(2.5) |
44 |
2 |
7 |
1 |
4 |
| May 15/16 |
42.5 |
41 |
2.5 |
8 |
2 |
4 |
| May 22/23 & May 29/30 |
40 (2.5) |
45.5 |
3 |
7 |
1 |
3.5 |
| June 5/6 & June 12/13 |
42.5 (2.5) |
43.5 |
1.5 |
7 |
1 |
4.5 |
| June 19/20 & June 26/27 |
41 (3.5) |
45.5 |
2 |
6.5 |
1 |
4 |
| July 3/4 |
42.5 (2.5) |
43.5 |
2 |
7 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
| July 10/11 |
41.5 (2.5) |
46 |
2 |
8 |
0.5 |
2 |
| July 17/18 & 24/25 |
41.5 (2.5) |
42 |
2.5 |
7.5 |
1 |
5.5 |
| July 31/ August 1 & August 7/8 |
40 (1.5) |
43 |
2.5 |
8 |
1 |
5.5 |
| August 14/15 & 21/22 |
39 (2.5) |
43.5 |
2 |
9 |
1.5 |
5 |
Note: National Party results are in brackets
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution
1 October 3, 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle. |
| TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE |
|
L-NP |
ALP |
| Election March 2, 1996 |
53.6 |
46.4 |
| Election October 3, 1998 1 |
49 |
51 |
| Election November 10, 2001 |
51 |
49 |
|
|
|
| MORGAN POLL 2004 |
|
|
| January 3/4 & January 10/11 |
44.5 |
55.5 |
| January 17/18 & January 24/25 |
45 |
55 |
| January 31/ February 1 & February 7/8 |
43.5 |
56.5 |
| February 14/15 & February 21/22 |
44.5 |
55.5 |
| February 28/29 & March 6/7 |
44.5 |
55.5 |
| March 13/14 & March 20/21 |
44.5 |
55.5 |
|
March 27/28 & April 3/4 |
45 |
55 |
| April 10/11 & April 17/18 |
45.5 |
54.5 |
|
April 24/25 & May 1/2 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
| May 15/16 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
| May 22/23 & May 29/30 |
45 |
55 |
| June 5/6 & June 12/13 |
47 |
53 |
| June 19/20 & June 26/27 |
46 |
54 |
| July 3/4 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
| July 10/11 |
46 |
54 |
| July 17/18 & 24/25 |
47 |
53 |
| July 31/ August 1 & August 7/8 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
| August 14/15 & 21/22 |
44.5 |
55.5 |
|
L-NP “Two-Party” estimate includes those who didn’t vote ALP or give their preference to the ALP. If the Newcastle two-Party preferred vote for the October 3, 1998 election is excluded the Australia-wide “two-Party” preferred vote is L-NP - 49.0% cf ALP - 51.0%. |
| TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES |
|
July 10/11, 2004 |
July 17/18 & July 24/25, 2004 |
July 31/ August 1 & August 7/8, 2004 |
August 14/15 & August 21/22, 2004 |
| MORGAN POLL |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
| Australian Democrats # |
31 |
69 |
33.5 |
66.5 |
35 |
65 |
20 |
80 |
| The Greens |
15 |
85 |
16 |
84 |
26 |
74 |
16.5 |
83.5 |
| One Nation # |
84 |
16 |
57 |
43 |
48 |
52 |
65.5 |
34.5 |
| Independent/ Other |
58 |
42 |
46.5 |
53.5 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
38.5 |
61.5 |
| # Sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution |
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution
Sample: 1,926 electors interviewed face-to-face on August 14/15 & 21/22, 2004
5.5% (up 1%) did not name a party.
View Federal Voting Intention Trend
Finding No. 3772 is taken from Computer Report No. 1982
|
