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In early September, one week into the Federal election campaign and a week before the bomb in Jakarta , two-party support for the ALP was up 0.5% to 56% - its highest since February this year - while Coalition support was down to 44%. Primary support for the ALP fell 0.5% to 43% with L-NP support also falling 0.5%, now at 38.5%. If a Federal election had been held in early September the ALP would have won easily, the latest Morgan Poll finds.

Among the minor parties, support for the Greens was 10.5% (up 1.5%), Other Parties and Independent Candidates 5.5% (up 0.5%), Australian Democrats 2% (unchanged), and One Nation 0.5% (down 1%).

In early September, on the important question of who the electorate thinks will win the next election, the L-NP is leading the ALP by 11%. Now 47.5% (down 2.5%) of electors think the L-NP will win the next Federal election while 36.5% (up 3.5%) think the ALP will win (16% can’t say).

Gary Morgan says:

“ Until the bomb in Jakarta the ALP looked set to win the Federal election.

"The bomb in Jakarta has essentially reset the clock. The race will start again from a different starting point after September 11. The debate on Sunday September 12 will be significant in setting the agenda

“The 2004 Federal election result will be decided on the issues of economic management, taxation, health, education and unemployment (including hidden unemployment). The ‘sleepers’ are Iraq — whether Australians are killed or taken hostage, industrial relations, Labor controlling all State Parliaments and the Federal Parliament, terrorism, how long Howard stays, and whether electors think it is ‘time for a change’.”

During the polling period:

•  Prime Minister John Howard called the Federal election for October 9, 2004.

•  Prior to the election announcement, Treasurer Peter Costello outlined a vision for the Liberal Party, mentioning no children in detention, higher levels of immigration and a republic.

•  The ALP released a dossier entitled Truth Overboard — 27 Lies Told By John Howard and Counting . Mr Howard later released a statement addressing each of the ALP’s allegations.

•  Mr Howard warns of higher interest rates if a Labor Government is elected. Mr Latham signed a “guarantee” to keep interest rates low. It is expected the Reserve Bank will not change interest rates during the election campaign.

•  A military trial began for Australian Guantanamo Bay detainee David Hicks. The US Military trial has been criticised by Human Rights officials, but the US Military is insisting Hicks will get a “full and fair trial”.

•  A Russian school was seized by 26 hostage-takers, ending in siege that killed more than 330 people, including 155 children.

•  The Australian Olympic team returned home as the most successful Australian team ever, with 17 gold medals.

Preferences of all minor parties favored the Opposition; the Greens (ALP — 84% cf L-NP — 16%), Other Parties and Independents (ALP — 59% cf LNP — 41%), Australian Democrats (ALP — 57% cf L-NP — 43%) and One Nation (ALP — 57% cf L-NP — 43%).

Special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research in which respondents gave their reason for voting was conducted on September 4/5, 2004.

Many Liberal supporters mentioned their lack of confidence in the ALP as their reason for voting for the current Government. Comments included: “Other parties don’t come up to scratch - too much in-fighting” and “Because Latham is not a strong person” . Some electors cited Labor’s relationship with unions as the reason they will vote Liberal, saying “I believe in ALP policies and would vote for them only if they weren’t associated with unions” and “Liberal policies are better - unions have influence over Labor policies” .

Confidence in the Liberal Party’s economic management was a big issue for Liberal Party supporters, with comments such as; “I think they are better money managers, I feel the ALP is less fiscally responsible” , “I remember Labor interest rates shot up — unemployment was up” and “Howard is a secure leader on economics” .

Economic issues were also mentioned by ALP supporters, with many electors critical of Liberal’s economic policies; “I feel we’ve gone backwards with Howard financially” , “ The poorer and unemployed will get a better deal from the ALP” , “Too much wealth being shifted to the rich” .

International issues and the War in Iraq continued to be a concern, with some ALP supporters saying; “Dissatisfied with international decisions of current government — especially wars and asylum seekers” , “Disagree with war policies with US and refugees” and “[Labor has] better ideas about war — John Howard is too American” .

John Howard’s honesty was also mentioned by many ALP supporters, saying “Dishonesty of the Liberal Party” , “ Honesty and truth in government” , “Honesty issues ”, “Don’t like the PM and the way he has conducted himself over last 12 months — untrustworthy” and “lies and truthfulness ie. children overboard debate” .

This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekends of August 28/29 and September 4/5, 2004, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,866 electors. Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?” Of all electors surveyed, 5.5% (unchanged) did not name a party.

Think will win

Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who do you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"

	L-NP	ALP	Can't Say
	%	%	%
November 22/23, 2003	68	22	10
November 29/30, 2003	66	21	13
December 6/7, 2003	60	24	15
December 13/14 & December 20/21, 2003	57	29	14
January 3/4 & January 10/11, 2004	59	28	13
January 17/18 & January 24/25, 2004	55	32	13
January 31/ February 1 & February 7/8, 2004	51	36	13
February 14/15 & February 21/22, 2004	43	42	15
February 28/29 & March 6/7, 2004	45	40	15
March 13/14 & March 20/21, 2004	41.5	43.5	15
March 27/28 & April 3/4, 2004	43.5	45.5	11
April 10/11 & April 17/18, 2004	48.5	38	13.5
April 24/25 & May 1/2, 2004	48.5	38.5	13
May 15/16, 2004	52.5	35	12.5
May 22/23 & May 29/30, 2004	44.5	41	14.5
June 5/6 & June 12/13, 2004	46	40	14
June 19/20 & June 26/27, 2004	49	35.5	15.5
July 3/4, 2004	49	35	16
July 10/11, 2004	54	32	14
July 17/18 & 24/25, 2004	49.5	36	14.5
July 31/ August 1 & August 7/8, 2004	52.5	33.5	14
August 14/15 & 21/22, 2004	50	33	17
August 28/29 & September 4/5, 2004	47.5	36.5	16

For further information:

Gary Morgan:	Office (03) 9224 5213	Mobile 0411 129 094	Home (03) 9419 3242
Michele Levine:	Office (03) 9224 5215	Mobile 0411 129 093	Home (03) 9817 3066

VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

PRIMARY VOTE	L-NP	ALP	Aust. Dem. #	The Greens	One Nation #	Ind./ Others
Election March 2, 1996	47.3 (8.6)	38.8	6.8	1.7	N/A	5.4
Election October 3, 1998 1	39.5 (5.3)	40.1	5.1	2.1	8.5	4.7
Election November 10, 2001	43 (5.6)	37.8	5.4	4.4	4.3	5.1
MORGAN POLL 2004
January 3/4 & January 10/11	40(2)	45	1.5	7.5	2	4
January 17/18 & January 24/25	39 (3)	44	2.5	8	2	4.5
January 31/ February 1 & February 7/8	38 (3)	48	2.5	5.5	1.5	4.5
February 14/15 & February 21/22	40.5 (3)	45.5	2	6.5	1.5	4
February 28/29 & March 6/7	39(3)	46	2.5	7.5	1.5	3.5
March 13/14 & March 20/21	39.5(2)	45.5	2	7	1	5
March 27/28 & April 3/4	39.5(3.5)	43.5	2.0	9.5	1.5	4
April 10/11 & April 17/18	41(1.5)	45	2	7.5	1.5	3
April 24/25 & May 1/2	42(2.5)	44	2	7	1	4
May 15/16	42.5	41	2.5	8	2	4
May 22/23 & May 29/30	40 (2.5)	45.5	3	7	1	3.5
June 5/6 & June 12/13	42.5 (2.5)	43.5	1.5	7	1	4.5
June 19/20 & June 26/27	41 (3.5)	45.5	2	6.5	1	4
July 3/4	42.5 (2.5)	43.5	2	7	0.5	4.5
July 10/11	41.5 (2.5)	46	2	8	0.5	2
July 17/18 & 24/25	41.5 (2.5)	42	2.5	7.5	1	5.5
July 31/ August 1 & August 7/8	40 (1.5)	43	2.5	8	1	5.5
August 14/15 & 21/22	39 (2.5)	43.5	2	9	1.5	5
August 28/29 & September 4/5	38.5 (3)	43	2	10.5	0.5	5.5
Note: National Party results are in brackets # Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution 1 October 3, 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE
	L-NP	ALP
Election March 2, 1996	53.6	46.4
Election October 3, 1998 1	49	51
Election November 10, 2001	51	49
MORGAN POLL 2004
January 3/4 & January 10/11	44.5	55.5
January 17/18 & January 24/25	45	55
January 31/ February 1 & February 7/8	43.5	56.5
February 14/15 & February 21/22	44.5	55.5
February 28/29 & March 6/7	44.5	55.5
March 13/14 & March 20/21	44.5	55.5
March 27/28 & April 3/4	45	55
April 10/11 & April 17/18	45.5	54.5
April 24/25 & May 1/2	46.5	53.5
May 15/16	47.5	52.5
May 22/23 & May 29/30	45	55
June 5/6 & June 12/13	47	53
June 19/20 & June 26/27	46	54
July 3/4	48.5	51.5
July 10/11	46	54
July 17/18 & 24/25	47	53
July 31/ August 1 & August 7/8	46.5	53.5
August 14/15 & 21/22	44.5	55.5
August 28/29 & September 4/5	44	56
NP “two-Party” estimate includes those who didn’t vote ALP or give their preference to the ALP. If the Newcastle two-Party preferred vote for the October 3, 1998 election is excluded the Australia-wide “two-Party” preferred vote is L-NP - 49.0% cf ALP - 51.0%.

TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES
	July 17/18 & July 24/25, 2004		July 31/ August 1 & August 7/8, 2004		August 14/15 & August 21/22, 2004		August 28/29 & September 4/5, 2004
MORGAN POLL	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP
Australian Democrats #	33.5	66.5	35	65	20	80	43	57
The Greens	16	84	26	74	16.5	83.5	16	84
One Nation #	57	43	48	52	65.5	34.5	43	57
Independent/ Other	46.5	53.5	50.5	49.5	38.5	61.5	41	59
# Sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution

# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution
Sample: 1,866 electors interviewed face-to-face on August 28/29 & September 4/5, 2004

5.5% (unchanged) did not name a party.

View Federal Voting Intention Trend

Finding No. 3777 is taken from Computer Report No. 1985

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