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In two weeks that saw the Leader’s Debate following the Jakarta bombing and the ALP tax and education policies, the telephone Morgan Poll recorded a strong improvement in Opposition Leader Mark Latham’s image and a swing to the ALP.

Now, Mr Latham’s approval is at an all-time high, with 64% (up 6% from early September) of electors now saying they approve of the way Mr Latham is handling his job as Opposition Leader (26% disapprove, 10% can’t say). Prime Minister John Howard experienced a slight rise in approval (51%, up 1%), a special telephone Morgan Poll finds.

While preference for Mr Howard as Prime Minister decreased in the last week, more electors still believe Mr Howard (49%, down 2%) would make a better Prime Minister than Mr Latham, now 42% (up 4%).

Gary Morgan says:

“This telephone Morgan Poll clearly shows a change in the mood of the electorate, with a high acceptance of Mr Latham’s education and taxation policies.

“As we have said previously, telephone polls are biased towards the party which receives the best publicity. This week has clearly been a good one for the ALP and is reflected in this telephone poll (54.5% ALP, 45.5% L-NP).

“However, this poll is similar to the face-to-face Morgan Poll conducted before the bombing in Indonesia . The next face-to-face Morgan Poll — surveying this weekend and to be released on Monday - will show whether or not this strong ALP support is a considered and sustained response of the electorate or not.”

Three weeks into the Federal election campaign Mr Latham’s rating has improved on eight of the nine image dimensions surveyed, while Mr Howard’s rating has fallen on all but three. Mr Latham has equaled or achieved his highest ratings yet on five image questions covering issues of fairness, honesty, security, policies, and tax.

Notably, on the question of taxation, more electors now believe Mr Latham is best for minimising tax (41% up 5%, Howard 31% down 7%). While Mr Howard’s rating remains unchanged at being better at managing Australia ’s economy (58%), Mr Latham’s rating has increased 1% to 27%, his highest result since May 19/20, 2004. Mr Latham has also achieved his highest rating for making clearer policy statements, (35% up 7%, Howard 47% up 1%).

On another high-profile election issue, Mr Howard’s honesty rating has fallen to its lowest result since April 1, 2004, with 31% (down 7%) of electors believing Mr Howard is more honest and trustworthy than Mr Latham at 42% (up 5%). Mr Latham has also rated ahead of Mr Howard on showing more fairness to everyone (Latham 49%, Howard 34%) and being better at looking after families’ needs (Latham 49%, Howard 38%).

Mr Howard is still regarded by the electorate as more capable and intelligent (46%, up 2%) than Mr Latham (28%, down 1%), as the stronger leader (Howard 58% down 1%, Latham 29% up 1%) and as the leader trusted to keep Australia safe and secure (Howard 48% down 4%, Latham 38% up 9%).

Education Policy

The ALP education policy has the approval of the electorate, with 52% of electors saying they preferred the ALP education policy while 28% preferred the L-NP education policy (3% neither/same, 17% can’t say).

Taxation Policy

However, in relation to the ALP Taxation Policy, 28% said they would be better off, 41% not (25% the same, 14% worse off and 2% can’t say). Almost a third (31%) couldn’t say whether they would be better off or not under the ALP Taxation Policy.

Electors were divided about which tax policies would benefit them, with 36% saying they would be better off under the ALP tax package and 31% saying they’d be better off under the L-NP tax package (11% neither/same, 22% can’t say).

This telephone Morgan Poll was conducted September 15/16, 2004, with 1,055 electors Australia-wide.

Gary Morgan : Office (03) 9224 5213 Mobile 0411 129 094 Home (03) 9419 3242

Michele Levine : Office (03) 9224 5215 Mobile 0411 129 093 Home (03) 9817 3066

1. APPROVAL OF LEADERS

3. TAX POLICIES

Electors were told: "Last week Opposition Leader Mark Latham announced the Labor Party's tax policy."

Electors were then asked: "Will you and your family be better off under the Labor Party's tax policy or not?"

Table 4. Will you and your family be better off under the Labor Party's tax policy or not?

			Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	September 8/9 2004	September 15/16 2004	L-NP	ALP	Aust Dem.#	The Greens	Ind/ Other#	No Answer#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Yes, will be better off	27	28	11	44	22	42	10	11
No, will not be better off	41	41*	64	24	18	23	37	31
Can’t say	32	31	25	32	60	35	53	58
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

*25% same, 14% worse off, 2% can't say

Table 5. Under which tax package do you think you'd personally be better off - the Liberal-National Party tax package or the Labor Party tax package?

			Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
		September 15/16 2004	L-NP	ALP	Aust Dem.#	The Greens	Ind/ Other#	No Answer#
		%	%	%	%	%	%	%
L-NP tax package		31	62	11	4	14	23	10
ALP tax package		36	11	57	63	54	25	30
Neither/same		11	9	12	7	8	19	25
Can’t say		22	18	20	26	24	33	35
Total		100	100	100	100	100	100	100
# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

4. EDUCATION POLICIES

Electors were then told: "This week Opposition Leader Mark Latham announced the labor Party's education policy."

Electors were then asked: "Which education policy do you prefer, the Liberal-National Party education policy ot the Labor Party education policy?"

Table 6. Which education policy do you prefer, the Liberal-National Party education policy ot the Labor Party education policy?

			Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
		September 15/16 2004	L-NP	ALP	Aust Dem.#	The Greens	Ind/ Other#	No Answer#
		%	%	%	%	%	%	%
L-NP education policy		28	56	6	23	13	33	19
ALP education policy		52	21	81	57	70	39	37
Neither/same		3	4	1	2	5	2	17
Can’t say		17	19	12	18	12	26	27
Total		100	100	100	100	100	100	100
# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

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