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L-NP Could Lose Up To Three Senate Seats and Greens Gain Four
The L-NP could lose up to three Senate seats at the forthcoming Senate election, while the Greens are in a strong position to win four seats, according to a special Senate Morgan Poll conducted over the weekends of September 11/12 and 18/19. Overall, support for the Coalition in the Senate since the 2001 Federal Senate election was down 5% to 37% with the ALP support up 2.4% to 36.5%. Support for the Greens was up 7.1% to 12% which would result in a gain of at least four Senate seats. Among the minor parties support for the Australian Democrats was down 1.2% to 6%, One Nation support was down 4.1% to 1.5% and support for Other Parties and Independent Candidates up 0.8% to 7%. Preferences will decide the outcome of the final Senate seats up for election in each State at the next Federal election. However if the October 9 Senate election had been held last weekend, on the latest Morgan Poll result, the following outcome would have been likely: Results by State: In New South Wales , the Senate the L-NP and ALP would most likely win two seats each, the Greens a seat with the sixth seat being a contest between the ALP, the Australian Democrats and an Independent — not the Liberal Party. In Victoria , the ALP and L-NP would have each won two seats with the Greens also winning a seat, resulting in the loss of a Liberal Senator. The remaining seat would either go to the ALP or the Australian Democrats. In Queensland , the ALP and L-NP would each have won two seats with Pauline Hanson also winning a seat. The remaining seat going to either the Greens or the Democrats — preferences following a vote for Pauline Hanson will be important. In South Australia , the Liberal Party would win two of its three seats up for re-election, the ALP would gain a seat, winning three seats. The remaining seat would be a contest between the Australian Democrats, Greens and an Independent — not the Liberal Party. In Western Australia , the ALP and Liberal Party would each win two seats with the Greens also winning a seat. The remaining seat would be a contest between the Liberal Party and the Australian Democrats. In Tasmania , the Liberal Party would retain its two seats, with the ALP winning two seats (unchanged) and the Greens winning a seat. The remaining seat would be contested between the ALP and an Independent. The composition of the full Senate after a half Senate election in September 2004 would have been: L-NP (32 seats, down 3 seats), the ALP (27 seats), Australian Democrats (4 seats), Pauline Hanson (1 seat), Australian Greens 6 seats (a gain of four seats) with 6 seats too close to call. These are the main findings of the latest Morgan Poll which was conducted face-to-face among 2,037 electors in all electorates throughout Australia the weekends September 11/12 & 18/19, 2004. Respondents were asked: “At the Federal election for the Senate on October 9 — which Party will receive your first preference?” Of all electors surveyed, 8.5% were undecided on voting intention.
Gary Morgan : Office (03) 9224 5213 Mobile 0411 129 094 Home (03) 9419 3242 Michele Levine : Office (03) 9224 5215 Mobile 0411 129 093 Home (03) 9817 3066
Senate Voting Intention Respondents were asked: "At the Federal election on October 9 - which party wil receive your first preference?"
Senate Vote by State New South Wales
Victoria
- not mentioned * includes Independent vote Queensland
*13.5% on September 18/19 after Pauline Hanson announced she would be a candidate. South Australia
Western Australia
Tasmania
*did not stand - not mentioned For Senators to be elected they must obtain 7/7% or more of the vote (the quota) in a State when all Senators (12 per State) are to be elected. At an election for half the Senate the quota is 14.3% and six Senators are elected from each State. Because of this, it is more difficult for minor parties and independents to be elected at "half Senate" elections. Senate Voting Intention Analysis by House of Representatives Voting Intention
Finding No. 3786 is taken from Computer Report No. 1991 |
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