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While the majority of Australian electors prefer Peter Costello as Treasurer (57%) over Simon Crean (27%) and Alexander Downer as Foreign Minister (49%) over Kevin Rudd (37%), the ALP Shadow Ministers are preferred for the Defence, Health and Education portfolios, a special telephone Morgan Poll finds.

Kim Beazley is preferred by the majority of electors (56%) as Defence Minister, over incumbent Robert Hill (31%). Kim Beazley is favored by 83% of ALP supporters and 32% of L-NP supporters, while 55% of L-NP supporters favored Robert Hill.

Deputy Opposition Leader and Shadow Education Minister Jenny Macklin was the preferred candidate for the Education portfolio, favored by 39% of electors, compared to 27% preferring Brendan Nelson.

In a closer result, 38% of electors favored Julia Gillard for the Health portfolio over incumbent Tony Abbott (37%) by only 1%. While, as expected, L-NP supporters favored Tony Abbott (63%) and ALP supporters favored Julia Gillard (59%), supporters of all minor parties favored Julia Gillard (Australian Democrats 65%, Greens 67%, other parties and independent candidates 43%).

Meanwhile, Prime Minister John Howard is still seen as the better Prime Minister by the majority of electors (53%, up 4% since September 15/16), with 36% (down 6%) of electors saying Opposition Leader Mark Latham would make the better Prime Minister.

Approval of the way Mr Howard is handling his job as Prime Minister has continued to steadily increase, now at 54% (up 3%). Mr Latham’s approval - while still high - has fallen 9% since September 15/16. Now, 55% of electors approve of the way Mr Latham is handling his job as Opposition Leader.

Gary Morgan says:

“The election is going to be close. In the first telephone Morgan Poll since the candidates were announced, and it was clear which seats were being contested by the various Parties, the electorate has firmed up.

“Less than 4% of electors did not give a preference. Support for the National Party has increased, and in some electorates where individual local candidates are important, the Greens, Independents and other parties were strong.

“Overall— the latest telephone Morgan Poll shows L-NP has gained support on a two-party preferred basis (L-NP - 51.5%, ALP — 48.5%).

“While this may be a re-focus on Iraq and national security - with the recent beheadings of hostages in Iraq - the next face-to-face Morgan Poll, which will be released on Monday September 27, will show the true position.”

These are the findings of a special telephone Morgan Poll conducted September 22/23, 2004, with an Australia-wide cross section of 993 electors.

For further information:

Gary Morgan : Office (03) 9224 5213 Mobile 0411 129 094 Home (03) 9419 3242

Michele Levine : Office (03) 9224 5215   Mobile 0411 129 093   Home (03) 9817 3066

1. MINISTERS

Table 1. Treasurer

Respondents were asked: "In your opinion, who would make the better Treasurer - Peter Costello or Simon Crean?"

		Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
2004	Sept 22/23	L-NP	ALP	Aust Dem#	The Greens	Ind/Other	No Answer#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Costello	57	83	33	49	47	56	45
Crean	27	7	48	29	37	14	19
Someone else	1	-	1	-	1	5	-
Neither/same	5	3	6	17	3	4	11
Can't say	10	7	12	5	12	21	25
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

#Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Table 2. Minister for Foreign Affairs

Respondents were asked: "In your opinion, who would make the better Minister for Foreign Affairs - Alexander Downer or Kevin Rudd?"

		Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
2004	Sept 22/23	L-NP	ALP	Aust Dem#	The Greens	Ind/Other	No Answer#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Downer	49	76	27	43	26	43	33
Rudd	37	14	58	29	65	35	22
Someone else	1	1	1	-	-	1	-
Neither/same	4	2	4	11	3	7	6
Can't say	9	7	10	17	6	14	39
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

#Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Table 3. Minister for Defence

Respondents were asked: "In your opinion, who would make the better Minister for Defence - Robert Hill or Kim Beazley?"

		Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
2004	Sept 22/23	L-NP	ALP	Aust Dem#	The Greens	Ind/Other	No Answer#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Hill	31	55	7	24	20	49	15
Beazley	56	32	83	63	67	39	49
Someone else	-	-	-	-	-	1	-
Neither/same	2	3	2	-	3	1	3
Can't say	11	10	8	13	10	10	33
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

#Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Table 4. Minister for Education

Respondents were asked: "In your opinion, who would make the better Minister for Education - Brendan Nelson or Jenny Macklin?"

		Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
2004	Sept 22/23	L-NP	ALP	Aust Dem#	The Greens	Ind/Other	No Answer#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Nelson	27	44	15	24	16	24	4
Macklin	39	22	58	42	58	35	6
Someone else	1	-	1	2	-	1	-
Neither/same	5	5	4	9	1	3	10
Can't say	28	29	22	23	25	37	80
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

#Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Table 5. Minister for Health

Respondents were asked: "In your opinion, who would make the better Minister for Health - Tony Abbott or Julia Gillard?"

		Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
2004	Sept 22/23	L-NP	ALP	Aust Dem#	The Greens	Ind/Other	No Answer#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Abbott	37	63	18	14	13	32	22
Gillard	38	12	59	65	67	43	27
Someone else	-	-	1	-	-	1	2
Neither/same	4	4	5	-	3	4	4
Can't say	21	21	17	21	17	20	45
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

#Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

2. APPROVAL OF LEADERS

Table 1. Thinking of Mr Howard and Mr Latham. In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister - Mr Howard or Mr Latham?

									Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
2004	Total June 2/3	Total June 30/ July 1	Total August 4-8	Total August 11/12	Total August 18/19	Total September 1/2	Total September 15/16	Total September 22/23	L-NP	ALP	Aust Dem.#	The Greens	Ind/ Other	No Answer#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Howard	50	55	58	50	49	51	49	53	91	16	45	34	61	38
Latham	38	34	34	40	40	38	42	36	4	70	40	58	19	14
Someone else	1	1	1	1	1	2	1	2	1	1	-	2	8	2
Can't say	11	10	7	9	10	9	8	9	4	13	15	6	12	46
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Table 2. Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr Howard is handling his job as Prime Minister?

										Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Total April 11/12 , 2003	Total June 2/3, 2004	Total June 30/ July 1 , 2004	Total August 4-8, 2004	Total August 11/12, 2004	Total August 18/19, 2004	Total September 1/2, 2004	Total September 15/16, 2004	Total September 22/23, 2004	L-NP	ALP	Aust Dem.#	The Greens	Ind/ Other	No Answer#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	65	48	55	58	47	47	50	51	54	88	22	60	26	60	44
Disapprove	28	45	38	34	44	47	43	43	38	7	68	38	70	31	29
Can't say	7	7	7	8	9	6	7	6	8	5	10	2	4	9	27
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Table 3. Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr Latham is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition?

										Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
2004		Total June 2/3	Total June 30/ July 1	Total August 4-8	Total August 11/12	Total August 18/19	Total September 1/2	Total September 15/16	Total September 22/23	L-NP	ALP	Aust Dem.#	The Greens	Ind/ Other	No Answer#
		%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve		56	50	53	56	58	58	64	55	39	78	45	59	37	37
Disapprove		32	37	34	30	32	30	26	33	49	11	54	35	49	29
Can't say		12	13	13	14	10	12	10	12	12	11	1	6	14	34
Total		100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Roy Morgan International Poll sampling tolerance:

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects should be made as appropriate.

Sample size	Percentage estimate
	25-75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
1000	±3	±2	±1 1/2

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