Home |  site-map |  indonesia |  indonesian-single-source-articles |  asteroid-user-registration |

Roy Morgan OZ Panel Login  |  Mail Diary Panel Login |   careers |  contact-us |

 Search:  Entire Site Polls Press Releases 

Prime Minister John Howard’s approval and image ratings have soared in a week that saw both the L-NP and the ALP launch their key election policies. Now, 57% (up 4% since September 22/23) of electors believe Mr Howard would make a better Prime Minister than Opposition Leader Mark Latham (34%, down 2%), a special telephone Morgan Poll finds.

Approval of the way Mr Howard is handling his job as Prime Minister has risen to 56% (up 2%), while a 38% disapprove (6% can’t say). Mr Latham’s approval has remained unchanged at 55%, with 34% of electors disapproving of the way he is handling his job as Opposition Leader (11% can’t say).

Two weeks ago Mr Latham rated ahead of Mr Howard on four of the nine image dimensions surveyed after weeks steadily rising image ratings.

While, Mr Howard’s image rating has improved, Mr Latham’s rating has dropped on all nine dimensions. Mr Latham is only ahead of Mr Howard on looking after families’ needs (Latham 44% cf Howard 43%) and showing more fairness to everyone (Latham 42% cf. Howard 39%).

Mr Howard’s biggest gains were for “minimising tax” (Howard 40%, up 9% cf. Latham 33%, down 8%) and “more capable and intelligent” (Howard 55%, up 9% cf Latham 22%, down 6%).

Mr Howard is still seen as being the stronger leader (Howard 65% cf. Latham 24%) and better at managing Australia ’s economy (Howard 63% cf. Latham 21%). Mr Howard is also seen as best for keeping Australia safe and secure (Howard 56% cf. Latham 28%), making clearer policy statements (Howard 48% cf. Latham 29%) and being more honest and trustworthy (Howard 36% cf. Latham 33%).

Gary Morgan says:

“This latest telephone Morgan Poll shows John Howard's image has improved since his Coalition Policy launch and heavy Liberal Party TV advertising criticising Mark Latham. The latest telephone Morgan Poll was taken after Mark Latham’s Policy launch. It is unlikely its full impact has been measured by this latest poll.

“Now 60% of electors think the L-NP will win, only 26% of ALP with 14% undecided.

“As I have been saying, telephone polls are biased towards the Party who receives the best publicity and who electors think will win. The best examples of inaccurate telephone poll results on voting intention were before the 1994 Federal Election (when Hewson lost) and the 1999 Victorian State Election (when Kennett lost). Public opinion poll followers should study Anthony Wells’ Guide to Opinion Polls and in particular, note the article on how The Times UK pollster, Populus, now weight their results by “past vote”. If the latest telephone Morgan Poll were weighted by “past vote”, the result would be much closer! (See also note below).

“Although the L-NP are leading 52.5% (up 1% on last week’s telephone Morgan Poll); 47.5% ALP (down 1% in the week), the election will be close. The final “face-to-face Morgan Poll”, being conducted this weekend, will show with a week to go whether last weekend’s “face-to-face” Morgan Poll result.

(L-NP - 50%; ALP - 50%) showing a close election (a hung Parliament?) is still the situation or not.

“Special analysis of “voting intention” from this latest telephone Morgan Poll in 27 marginal L-NP seats (341 electors sampled) and 19 marginal ALP seats (250 electors sampled) showed a close election — too close to call!

Marginal L-NP seats — 51% L-NP; 49% ALP

Marginal ALP seats — 51% ALP; 49% L-NP

“Note: We have demonstrated similar differences when measuring Consumer Confidence by telephone interviews and face-to-face interviews. Consumer Confidence measured by telephone shows much wilder fluctuations than when measured by face-to-face. The attached Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating summarises results from both methods measured in May, June and July. You’ll see while the face-to-face ‘Ratings’ show little change from May to July, the telephone ‘Ratings’ showed significant increases in Consumer Confidence. This would be of little concern, except the “money market” values the dollar on the Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (conducted by telephone) which asks exactly the same questions and shows similar wild fluctuations due to telephone interviewing.”

These are the findings of a special telephone Morgan Poll conducted September 29/30, 2004, with an Australia-wide cross section of 1,010 electors.

Gary Morgan : Office (03) 9224 5213 Mobile 0411 129 094 Home (03) 9419 3242

Michele Levine : Office (03) 9224 5215 Mobile 0411 129 093 Home (03) 9817 3066

1. APPROVAL OF LEADERS

© 2007 Roy Morgan Research. All Rights Reserved
privacy-statement