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On the weekend, with a week to go to the Federal election and after both major Parties announced their key election policies at their campaign launches, two-party support for the ALP was 51.5% (up 1.5% since last week) while Coalition support was down to 48.5%. Primary support for the L-NP fell 2.5% to 41.5%, while primary support for the ALP was virtually unchanged at 40.5% (up 0.5%). If a Federal election had been held on the weekend the ALP would have won a close election with minor party preferences, the latest Morgan Poll, taken October 2/3, finds.

Among the minor parties, support for the Greens was 9% (unchanged), Other Parties and Independent Candidates 6% (up 1%), Australian Democrats 2% (up 1%), and One Nation 1% (unchanged).

An analysis of the two-party preferred vote in marginal seats over the last two weeks shows the ALP well ahead in the ALP marginals (ALP 62% cf L-NP 38%) while support is divided in marginal seats held by the L-NP (L-NP 50% cf ALP 50%).

On the important question of who the electorate thinks will win the Federal election on October 9, the L-NP is leading the ALP by 22.5%. Now 55% (down 4%) of electors think the L-NP will win the Federal election on October 9 while 32.5% (up 2.5%) think the ALP will win (12.5% can’t say).

Gary Morgan says:

“With one week to go, the face-to-face Morgan Poll gives the ALP a good chance of winning next week’s election.

“The two-party preferred vote is 51.5% ALP ahead of 48.5% L-NP. However, the real test is always the marginal seats. In the two weekends (September 25/26 and October 2/3) the ALP was ahead in ALP marginals (62% ALP cf 38% L-NP) suggesting it is unlikely they will lose any marginal seat.

“In the L-NP marginals the two parties are neck-and-neck (L-NP 50% cf ALP 50%), suggesting the L-NP could lose some critical marginal seats.

“This coming week will be critical. Electors can change their vote as they did in the last Federal election; and election day surveys show over 20% of electors don’t decide how they will vote until they are in the booth.

“How to vote cards will be crucial as will manning of the booths, posters and other “point of vote” messages/propaganda — watch out for dirty tricks!

“The final telephone Morgan Poll will be conducted Wednesday and Thursday evenings and reported Friday, election eve.”

During the week prior to polling:

•  Prime Minister John Howard unveiled the Coalition’s campaign launch with $6 billion of pledges that focused on families and small businesses and aims at countering Labor’s school policy.

•  At the ALP campaign launch, the focus was on older voters as Opposition Leader Mark Latham announced a $2.9 billion Medicare Gold scheme that would take full responsibility for hospital costs for those aged 75 and over, guaranteeing older electors a bed.

•  Opposition Leader Mark Latham released a $1.6 billion early childhood package that included a universal access to a free day of child care each week.

•  A nation-wide child porn ring was uncovered by the Federal Police with hundreds of people charged, including a child-care centre owner, police and teachers. Two of the accused have committed suicide.

•  The hostage crisis in Iraq continued, with Briton Ken Bigley still held hostage. Meanwhile, two Italian women aid workers were freed after being held hostage for three weeks. Fierce fighting continued with heavy casualties.

•  Russian cabinet agreed to submit the Kyoto Protocol for ratification. If ratified by the Russian parliament, the Kyoto Protocol will come into force. To date, Australia and the US have not ratified the agreement.

Analysis by age shows support for the ALP increased among younger voters, particularly with electors aged 18-24 (ALP 69%, up 6%), 25-34 (ALP 56%, up 2.5%) and 35-49 (ALP 55% up 3.5%). L-NP support increased among electors aged 50-64 (L-NP 53.5%, up 2%) while support of those over 65 - after the proposal of Labor’s Medicare Gold - shifted slightly to the ALP (L-NP 58%, down 3%).

While the two-party preferences of Men have remained virtually unchanged (ALP 51%, up 0.5%), the last week has seen preferences of Women move away from the L-NP (ALP 52.5%, up 3.5%). City electors showed more support for the ALP (56%, up 3.5%) while the L-NP held the Country elector’s preferences (L-NP 55.5%, up 1.5%).

Preferences of the Greens (ALP — 81.5% cf L-NP — 18.5%), Australian Democrats (ALP — 56.5% cf L-NP — 43.5%) and One Nation (ALP — 56.5% cf LNP — 43.5%) favored the Opposition, while supporters of Other Parties and Independents (L-NP — 58.5% cf ALP — 41.5%) favored the Coalition.

This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekend of October 2/3, 2004, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,019 electors. Electors were asked: “Thinking about the Federal election for the House of Representatives on October 9 - which Party will receive your first preference?” Of all electors surveyed, 5% did not name a party.

Analysis by Area, Gender and Age
		Area		Gender		Age
	Total	City	Country	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50-64	65+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
L-NP	48.5	44	55.5	49	47.5	31	44	45	53.5	58
ALP	51.5	56	44.5	51	52.5	69	56	55	46.5	42
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Think will win

Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who do you THINK will win the Federal election on October 9?"

	L-NP	ALP	Can't Say
	%	%	%
November 22/23, 2003	68	22	10
November 29/30, 2003	66	21	13
December 6/7, 2003	60	24	15
December 13/14 & December 20/21, 2003	57	29	14
January 3/4 & January 10/11, 2004	59	28	13
January 17/18 & January 24/25, 2004	55	32	13
January 31/ February 1 & February 7/8, 2004	51	36	13
February 14/15 & February 21/22, 2004	43	42	15
February 28/29 & March 6/7, 2004	45	40	15
March 13/14 & March 20/21, 2004	41.5	43.5	15
March 27/28 & April 3/4, 2004	43.5	45.5	11
April 10/11 & April 17/18, 2004	48.5	38	13.5
April 24/25 & May 1/2, 2004	48.5	38.5	13
May 15/16, 2004	52.5	35	12.5
May 22/23 & May 29/30, 2004	44.5	41	14.5
June 5/6 & June 12/13, 2004	46	40	14
June 19/20 & June 26/27, 2004	49	35.5	15.5
July 3/4, 2004	49	35	16
July 10/11, 2004	54	32	14
July 17/18 & 24/25, 2004	49.5	36	14.5
July 31/ August 1 & August 7/8, 2004	52.5	33.5	14
August 14/15 & 21/22, 2004	50	33	17
August 28/29 & September 4/5, 2004	47.5	36.5	16
September 11/12, 2004	56.5	29.5	14
September 18/19, 2004	56	29	15
September 25/26, 2004	59	30	11
October 2/3, 2004	55	32.5	12.5

For further information:

Gary Morgan:	Office (03) 9224 5213	Mobile 0411 129 094	Home (03) 9419 3242
Michele Levine:	Office (03) 9224 5215	Mobile 0411 129 093	Home (03) 9817 3066

VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

PRIMARY VOTE	L-NP	ALP	Aust. Dem. #	The Greens	One Nation #	Ind./ Others
Election March 2, 1996	47.3 (8.6)	38.8	6.8	1.7	N/A	5.4
Election October 3, 1998 1	39.5 (5.3)	40.1	5.1	2.1	8.5	4.7
Election November 10, 2001	43 (5.6)	37.8	5.4	4.4	4.3	5.1
MORGAN POLL 2004
January 3/4 & January 10/11	40(2)	45	1.5	7.5	2	4
January 17/18 & January 24/25	39 (3)	44	2.5	8	2	4.5
January 31/ February 1 & February 7/8	38 (3)	48	2.5	5.5	1.5	4.5
February 14/15 & February 21/22	40.5 (3)	45.5	2	6.5	1.5	4
February 28/29 & March 6/7	39(3)	46	2.5	7.5	1.5	3.5
March 13/14 & March 20/21	39.5(2)	45.5	2	7	1	5
March 27/28 & April 3/4	39.5(3.5)	43.5	2.0	9.5	1.5	4
April 10/11 & April 17/18	41(1.5)	45	2	7.5	1.5	3
April 24/25 & May 1/2	42(2.5)	44	2	7	1	4
May 15/16	42.5	41	2.5	8	2	4
May 22/23 & May 29/30	40 (2.5)	45.5	3	7	1	3.5
June 5/6 & June 12/13	42.5 (2.5)	43.5	1.5	7	1	4.5
June 19/20 & June 26/27	41 (3.5)	45.5	2	6.5	1	4
July 3/4	42.5 (2.5)	43.5	2	7	0.5	4.5
July 10/11	41.5 (2.5)	46	2	8	0.5	2
July 17/18 & 24/25	41.5 (2.5)	42	2.5	7.5	1	5.5
July 31/ August 1 & August 7/8	40 (1.5)	43	2.5	8	1	5.5
August 14/15 & 21/22	39 (2.5)	43.5	2	9	1.5	5
August 28/29 & September 4/5	38.5 (3)	43	2	10.5	0.5	5.5
September 11/12	40 (2)	43.5	2	8	1	5.5
September 18/19	42.5 (2.5)	41	2	7.5	1	6
September 25/26	44 (4)	40	1	9	1	5
October 2/3	41.5 (4)	40.5	2	9	1	6
Note: National Party results are in brackets # Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution 1 October 3, 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE
	L-NP	ALP
Election March 2, 1996	53.6	46.4
Election October 3, 1998 1	49	51
Election November 10, 2001	51	49
MORGAN POLL 2004
January 3/4 & January 10/11	44.5	55.5
January 17/18 & January 24/25	45	55
January 31/ February 1 & February 7/8	43.5	56.5
February 14/15 & February 21/22	44.5	55.5
February 28/29 & March 6/7	44.5	55.5
March 13/14 & March 20/21	44.5	55.5
March 27/28 & April 3/4	45	55
April 10/11 & April 17/18	45.5	54.5
April 24/25 & May 1/2	46.5	53.5
May 15/16	47.5	52.5
May 22/23 & May 29/30	45	55
June 5/6 & June 12/13	47	53
June 19/20 & June 26/27	46	54
July 3/4	48.5	51.5
July 10/11	46	54
July 17/18 & 24/25	47	53
July 31/ August 1 & August 7/8	46.5	53.5
August 14/15 & 21/22	44.5	55.5
August 28/29 & September 4/5	44	56
Setpember 11/12	45.5	54.5
September 18/19	47	53
September 25/26	50	50
October 2/3	48.5	51.5
NP “two-Party” estimate includes those who didn’t vote ALP or give their preference to the ALP. If the Newcastle two-Party preferred vote for the October 3, 1998 election is excluded the Australia-wide “two-Party” preferred vote is L-NP - 49.0% cf ALP - 51.0%.

TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES
	September 11/12, 2004		September 18/19, 2004		September 25/26, 2004		October 2/3, 2004
MORGAN POLL	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP
Australian Democrats #	20	80	22	78	31.5	68.5	43.5	56.5
The Greens	15.5	84.5	13	87	24	76	18.5	81.5
One Nation #	53	47	55	45	60	40	43.5	56.5
Independent/ Other	62	38	30	70	61	39	58.5	41.5
# Sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution

Morgan Poll sampling tolerance:

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample size	Percentage estimate
	25-75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
1000	Â ± 3	Â ± 2	Â ± 1½

# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution
Sample: 1,019 electors interviewed face-to-face on October 2/3, 2004

5% did not name a party.

View Federal Voting Intention Trend

Finding No. 3794 is taken from Computer Report No. 1993

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