Final Morgan Poll - ALP Ahead, Too Close to Call - Possible Hung Parliament
| Finding No. 3795 -
October 09, 2004 |
On election eve support for the ALP was 51%, on a two-party preferred basis, ahead of the L-NP (49%). When electors were surveyed and asked who they were going to vote for, primary support for the L-NP was 45.5%, while primary support for the ALP was 38.5%. Support for the Greens was 9.5%, Other Parties and Independent Candidates 4.5%, Australian Democrats 1%, and One Nation 1%.
If the Federal election had been held on election eve, the outcome on these figures would have been too close to call — dependent on marginal L-NP seats and with the serious possibility of a “hung” Parliament, according to the final telephone Morgan Poll taken October 7/8.
An analysis of the two-party preferred vote in marginal seats shows the ALP well ahead in the 11 most marginal ALP seats (ALP 61% cf L-NP 39%) and support in the 27 most marginal L-NP seats also favored the ALP (ALP 50.5% cf L-NP 49.5%).
On the important question of who the electorate thinks will win the Federal election on October 9, the L-NP is leading the ALP by 48%. Now 67% of electors think the L-NP will win the Federal election on October 9 while 19% think the ALP will win (14% can’t say). This is the highest ‘think will win’ recorded for the L-NP this year.
Gary Morgan says:
“On election eve, with most of the campaigning over, the electorate has settled on a two-party preferred position that puts the ALP ahead of the L-NP.
“The final result — who wins Government — will depend on how the critical individual marginal L-NP seats fall. “The ALP most marginal seats look solid for the ALP (ALP 61% cf L-NP 39%) although there is a chance that the Coalition will gain the Tasmanian seat of Bass.
“However, the L-NP marginals are not looking strong enough to ensure an L-NP majority (ALP 50.5% cf L-NP 49.5%).
“In such a close situation, preferences of the minor parties will be critical, as will the ‘point-of-vote’ material and skills and persuasion of those manning booths in marginal electorates.”
Preferences of the Greens (ALP — 94% cf L-NP — 6%), the Australian Democrats (ALP — 55.5% cf L-NP — 44.5%) and Other Parties and Independents (ALP — 53.5% cf L-NP — 46.5%) favored the Opposition, while supporters of One Nation (L-NP — 68% cf ALP — 32%) favored the Coalition.
While more people still believe Mr Howard (54%, down 3% since September 29/30) would make a better Prime Minister than Mr Latham (37%, up 3%), approval of the way Mr Howard is handling his job as Prime Minister dropped 3% to 53% since late September. Approval for the way Mr Latham is handling his job as Opposition Leader was up 3% to 58%.
This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted by telephone on the evenings of October 7/8, 2004, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,311 electors. Electors were asked: “Thinking about the Federal election for the House of Representatives on October 9 (tomorrow) - which Party will receive your first preference?” Of all electors surveyed, 4% did not name a party.
2004 Election - Summary of Marginal Seats
| |
|
|
L-NP |
ALP |
| 26 L-NP Marginal Seats |
Sample Size |
|
% |
% |
| Election Nov 10, 2001* |
|
|
52.5 |
47.5 |
| Telephone Morgan Poll |
341 |
Sept 29/30 |
51 |
49 |
| Face-to-face Morgan Poll |
387 |
Sept 25/26 & Oct 2/3 |
50 |
50 |
| Telephone Morgan Poll |
492 |
Oct 7/8 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
| 11 ALP Most Marginal Seats |
|
|
|
|
| Election Nov 10, 2001* |
|
|
47 |
53 |
| Telephone Morgan Poll |
150 |
Sept 29/30 |
50 |
50 |
| Face-to-face Morgan Poll |
159 |
Sept 25/26 & Oct 2/3 |
38 |
62 |
| Telephone Morgan Poll |
202 |
Oct 7/8 |
39 |
61 |
*Average of two-party percentage vote for each seat based on redistributed seats
For further information:
|
Gary Morgan: |
Office (03) 9224 5213 |
Mobile 0411 129 094 |
Home (03) 9419 3242 |
|
Michele Levine: |
Office (03) 9224 5215 |
Mobile 0411 129 093 |
Home (03) 9817 3066 |
THINK WILL WIN
Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the Federal election on October 9 (tomorrow)?"
| Think Will Win |
L-NP |
ALP |
Can't Say |
| Election March 2, 1996 |
47.3 (8.6) |
38.8 |
6.8 |
| Election October 3, 1998 1 |
39.5 (5.3) |
40.1 |
5.1 |
| Election November 10, 2001 |
43 (5.6) |
37.8 |
5.4 |
|
|
|
|
| FACE-TO-FACE MORGAN POLL |
|
|
|
| October 2/3, 2004 |
55 |
32.5 |
12.5 |
| TELEPHONE MORGAN POLL |
|
|
|
| October 7/8, 2004 |
67 |
19 |
14 |
Note: National Party results are in brackets
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution
1 October 3, 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle. |
FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)
| PRIMARY VOTE |
L-NP |
ALP |
Aust.
Dem. # |
The
Greens |
One
Nation # |
Ind./
Others |
| Election March 2, 1996 |
47.3 (8.6) |
38.8 |
6.8 |
1.7 |
N/A |
5.4 |
| Election October 3, 1998 1 |
39.5 (5.3) |
40.1 |
5.1 |
2.1 |
8.5 |
4.7 |
| Election November 10, 2001 |
43 (5.6) |
37.8 |
5.4 |
4.4 |
4.3 |
5.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| FACE-TO-FACE MORGAN POLL |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| October 2/3, 2004 |
41.5 (4) |
40.5 |
2 |
9 |
1 |
6 |
| TELEPHONE MORGAN POLL |
|
|
|
|
|
|
| October 7/8, 2004 |
45.5 (5) |
38.5 |
1 |
9.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
Note: National Party results are in brackets
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution
1 October 3, 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle. |
| TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE |
|
L-NP |
ALP |
| Election March 2, 1996 |
53.6 |
46.4 |
| Election October 3, 1998 1 |
49 |
51 |
| Election November 10, 2001 |
51 |
49 |
|
|
|
| FACE-TO-FACE MORGAN POLL |
|
|
| October 2/3, 2004 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
| TELEPHONE MORGAN POLL |
|
|
| October 7/8, 2004 |
49 |
51 |
|
NP “two-Party” estimate includes those who didn’t vote ALP or give their preference to the ALP. If the Newcastle two-Party preferred vote for the October 3, 1998 election is excluded the Australia-wide “two-Party” preferred vote is L-NP - 49.0% cf ALP - 51.0%. |
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES (%) |
| |
Face-to-face |
Telephone |
| |
Sept 18/19 |
Sept 25/26 |
Oct 2/3 |
Oct 7/8 |
| MORGAN POLL |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
|
L-NP |
ALP |
| Australian Democrats # |
22 |
78 |
31.5 |
68.5 |
43.5 |
56.5 |
|
44.5 |
55.5 |
|
The Greens |
13 |
87 |
24 |
76 |
18.5 |
81.5 |
|
6 |
94 |
|
One Nation# |
55 |
45 |
60 |
40 |
43.5 |
56.5 |
|
68 |
32 |
|
Independent/Other |
30 |
70 |
61 |
39 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
|
46.5 |
53.5 |
#Sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.
APPROVAL OF LEADERS
Table 1. Thinking of Mr Howard and Mr Latham. In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister - Mr Howard or Mr Latham?
|
Analysis by Federal Voting Intention |
|
Total June 2/3 |
Total June 30/ July 1 |
Total
Aug
4-8 |
Total
Aug
11/12 |
Total
Aug
18/19 |
Total Sept
1/2 |
Total
Sept
15/16 |
Total
Sept
22/23 |
Total
Sept
29/30 |
Total
Oct
7/8 |
L-NP |
ALP |
Aust
Dem.# |
The
Greens# |
Ind/
Other# |
No
Answer# |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Howard |
50 |
55 |
58 |
50 |
49 |
51 |
49 |
53 |
57 |
54 |
94 |
18 |
42 |
10 |
67 |
35 |
|
Latham |
38 |
34 |
34 |
40 |
40 |
38 |
42 |
36 |
34 |
37 |
3 |
72 |
28 |
76 |
25 |
15 |
|
Someone else |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
4 |
1 |
- |
6 |
|
Can't say |
11 |
10 |
7 |
9 |
10 |
9 |
8 |
9 |
8 |
8 |
2 |
8 |
26 |
13 |
8 |
44 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
|
# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution |
Table 2. Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr Howard is handling his job as Prime Minister?
|
Analysis by Federal Voting Intention |
|
Total April 11/12 , 2003 |
Total June 2/3, 2004 |
Total June 30/ July 1 , 2004 |
Total
Aug
4-8,
2004 |
Total
Aug
11/12,
2004 |
Total
Aug
18/19,
2004 |
Total
Sept
1/2,
2004 |
Total
Sept
15/16,
2004 |
Total
Sept
22/23,
2004 |
Total
Sept
29/30,
2004 |
Total
Oct
7/8,
2004 |
L-NP |
ALP |
Aust
Dem.# |
The
Greens# |
Ind/
Other# |
No
Answer# |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Approve |
65 |
48 |
55 |
58 |
47 |
47 |
50 |
51 |
54 |
56 |
53 |
90 |
20 |
43 |
15 |
60 |
35 |
|
Disapprove |
28 |
45 |
38 |
34 |
44 |
47 |
43 |
43 |
38 |
38 |
40 |
5 |
72 |
45 |
83 |
29 |
48 |
|
Can't say |
7 |
7 |
7 |
8 |
9 |
6 |
7 |
6 |
8 |
6 |
7 |
5 |
8 |
12 |
2 |
11 |
17 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
|
# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution |
Table 3. Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr Latham is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition?
|
Analysis by Federal Voting Intention |
|
|
Total June 2/3 |
Total
June 30/ July 1 |
Total Aug
4-8 |
Total Aug
11/12 |
Total Aug
18/19 |
Total Sept
1/2 |
Total
Sept
15/16 |
Total
Sept
22/23 |
Total
Sept
29/30 |
Total
Oct
7/8 |
L-NP |
ALP |
Aust
Dem.# |
The
Greens# |
Ind/
Other# |
No
Answer# |
|
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Approve |
56 |
50 |
53 |
56 |
58 |
58 |
64 |
55 |
55 |
58 |
42 |
77 |
59 |
69 |
58 |
36 |
|
Disapprove |
32 |
37 |
34 |
30 |
32 |
30 |
26 |
33 |
34 |
30 |
48 |
11 |
35 |
17 |
37 |
30 |
|
Can't say |
12 |
13 |
13 |
14 |
10 |
12 |
10 |
12 |
11 |
12 |
10 |
12 |
6 |
14 |
5 |
34 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
|
# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution |
Morgan Poll sampling tolerance:
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|
Sample size |
Percentage estimate |
| |
25-75% |
10% or 90% |
5% or 95% |
|
1000 |
 ± 3 |
 ± 2 |
 ± 1½ |
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution
Sample: 1,311 electors interviewed face-to-face on October 7/8, 2004
4% did not name a party.
View Federal Voting Intention Trend
Finding No. 3795 is taken from Computer Report No. 1995
|
