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Howard Government Remains Strong Six Weeks Into Fourth Term
In late November, six weeks into the Howard Government’s fourth term in office, Primary support for the L-NP Coalition was 44% (down 2.4% since the October 9 Federal election) with support for the ALP at 39% (up 1.4%). The decrease in L-NP support was driven by a decrease in support for the National Party since the election. Within the Federal Coalition, support for the Liberal Party was 41% (up 0.5%) and support for the National Party 3% (down 2.9%). Among the minor parties, Australian Democrats support was 2% (up 0.8%), The Greens 8.5% (up 1.3%), Family First 1.5% (down 0.5%), One Nation 1% (down 0.2%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 4% (down 0.4%). If preferences of minor parties were allocated as they were at the 2004 Federal election (ALP — 61.5%, L-NP — 38.5%) the two-party preferred vote would be L-NP — 50.5%, ALP — 49.5%. Gary Morgan says: “The actual distribution of preferences appears to be more related to the ‘How to Vote’ cards, than electors stated preferences for the party that would be their next choice to be in Government. “The final 2004 Federal Election Morgan Poll was accurate on ALP, L-NP and other Parties. However, electors allocated their preferences differently at the Federal election from how they said they would give their preferences when interviewed by the Morgan Poll. “Preferences for the 2004 Federal Election Morgan Poll of the election were allocated L-NP — 22% cf ALP — 78%, overestimating preferences to Labor. At the Federal election, preferences of minor parties and independent candidates were allocated L-NP - 38.5% cf ALP — 61.5%. “When the detailed electoral results are available, the Morgan Poll will provide an analysis of the allocation of preferences for each of the minor parties, including Family First. This will provide a better insight into the flow of preferences, and how this critical element of an election needs to be followed in the future.” During the week prior to polling:
On the question of who the electorate thinks will win the next Federal election, the L-NP is leading the ALP by 25%. Now 55.5% (down 0.5% since early November) of electors think the L-NP will win the Federal election while 30% (up 2%) think the ALP will win (14.5% can’t say). This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekends of November 13/14 & 20/21, 2004, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,090 electors. Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today - which party would receive your first preference?” Of all electors surveyed, a low 2.5% did not name a party. For further information:
THINK WILL WIN Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition ot the Labor Party?"
FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)
Morgan Poll sampling tolerance: The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution 2.5% did not name a party. View Federal Voting Intention Trend
Finding No. 3808 is taken from Computer Report No. 2003 |
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