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In mid-December, shortly after Prime Minister John Howard celebrated his milestone as Australia ’s second longest serving Prime Minister, primary support for the L-NP Coalition was 45.5% - only 0.9% below the result obtained by the L-NP at the recent Federal election. Support for the ALP was at 36.5% - 1.1% below the ALP result at the Federal election.

If preferences of minor parties were allocated as they were at the 2004 Federal election (ALP — 61.5%, L-NP — 38.5%) the two-party preferred vote would be L-NP — 52.5%, ALP — 47.5%. Had an election been held in mid-December, the Coalition would have been returned with the same majority, the latest Morgan Poll finds.

Among the minor parties, support for The Greens was 9.5% (up 2.3% since the October election), Australian Democrats 1.5% (up 0.3%), Family First 2% (unchanged), One Nation 1.5% (up 0.3%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 3.5% (down 0.9%).

During the week prior to polling:

•  Debate over the leadership of the Labor Party continued, with Queensland Premier Peter Beattie calling for a decision on Opposition Leader Mark Latham’s future to be made before Christmas. Federal Labor MP Bob McMullen rejected calls for a decision to be made before the end of the year.

•  Despite the Federal Government’s refusal to ratify the Kyoto protocol, Environment Minister Ian Campbell released a report which shows Australia is on track to meet greenhouse gas emission targets set under the international agreement.

•  The Federal Government announced spending a further $590m to upgrade security at Australian embassies around the world.

•  A remote Aboriginal community from WA initiated a deal with the Federal Government, under which the Federal Government will provide petrol bowsers and improved health care if the community ensures children are bathed every day.

•  It was reported that Foreign Minister Alexander Downer was approached to become the next head of the United Nations’ International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

•  A leaked document from the Department of Transport and Regional Services showed $60m was promised under a controversial funding program during the six-week Federal election campaign, with 80% being allocated to key electorates in Queensland and Tasmania .

•  Australian Democrats Senator Andrew Bartlett announced he would go on a hunger strike in support of the detainees at the Baxter detention centre in South Australia, pledging to remain on the strike for as long as the detainees.

On the question of who the electorate thinks will win the next Federal election, the L-NP is leading the ALP by a significant 40.5%. Now 64% (up 0.5% since early December) of electors think the L-NP will win the Federal election while 23.5% (up 0.5%) think the ALP will win (12.5% can’t say).

This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekends of December 11/12 & 18/19, 2004, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,136 electors. Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today - which party would receive your first preference?” Of all electors surveyed, a low 3% (unchanged) did not name a party.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:	Office (03) 9224 5213	Mobile 0411 129 094	Home (03) 9419 3242
Michele Levine:	Office (03) 9224 5215	Mobile 0411 129 093	Home (03) 9817 3066

THINK WILL WIN

Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition ot the Labor Party?"

Think Will Win	L-NP	ALP	Can't Say
	%	%	%
October 30/31 & November 6/7, 2004	56	28	16
November 13/14 & 20/21, 2004	55.5	30	14.5
November 27/28 & December 4/5, 2004	63.5	23	13.5
December 11/12 & 18/19, 2004	64	23.5	12.5

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

PRIMARY VOTE	L-NP	ALP	Aust. Dem. #	The Greens	Family First#	One Nation #	Ind./ Others
Election March 2, 1996	47.3 (8.6)	38.8	6.8	1.7	*	N/A	5.4
Election October 3, 1998 1	39.5 (5.3)	40.1	5.1	2.1	*	8.5	4.7
Election November 10, 2001	43 (5.6)	37.8	5.4	4.4	*	4.3	5.1
Election October 9, 2004	46.4 (5.9)	37.6	1.2	7.2	2	1.2	4.4
MORGAN POLL
Oct 30/31 & Nov 6/7, 2004	44.5 (2.5)	39.5	2	8.5	2	1	2.5
Nov 13/14 & 20/21, 2004	44 (3)	39	2	8.5	1.5	1	4
Nov 27/28 & Dec 4/5, 2004	46.5 (2.5)	36	1.5	9	2.5	1	3.5
Dec 11/12 & 18/19, 2004	45.5 (3)	36.5	1.5	9.5	2	1.5	3.5
Note: National Party results are in brackets # Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution *The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004 1 October 3, 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.

Morgan Poll sampling tolerance:

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample size	Percentage estimate
	25-75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
1000	Â ± 3	Â ± 2	Â ± 1½

# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution
Sample: 2,136 electors interviewed face-to-face on December 11/12 & 18/19, 2004

3% (unchanged) did not name a party.

View Federal Voting Intention Trend

Finding No. 3818 is taken from Computer Report No. 2007

© 2007 Roy Morgan Research. All Rights Reserved
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