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Shortly after the Reserve Bank of Australia announced a 0.25% rise in interest rates, the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating has recorded a significant drop of 10.5 points to 121.5 points in March, down from a high 132.0 points in February.

This is the biggest drop since 2001, when the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating fell 14.1 points from 120.9 points in September to 106.8 points in October. The latest result is 13.3 points higher than the March average of 108.2 and 8.9 points lower than a year ago.

The drop is primarily driven by consumer’s attitude to Australia ’s economic conditions over the next twelve months and the sense that now is not a good time to buy.

The proportion of Australians expecting good economic times over the coming year fell 11% to 39%, with 23% (up 8%) expecting bad times. Meanwhile, 36% (down 5%) in March expect Australia to experience good economic conditions over the next five years, with 16% (up 3%) expecting bad economic times over the same period.

Now, fewer Australians (50%, down 8% since February) are saying now is a good time to buy major household items, such as electrical appliances or furniture. Eighteen percent (up 7%) said now is a bad time to buy major household items.

Australians’ attitude to their own financial situation and prospects are also down since February. Looking ahead, 44% (down 2%) of Australians expect to be better off financially this time next year, while 15% (up 4%) expect to be worse off. Thirty five percent (down 1%) say their personal financial situation is better now than it was last year, with 24% (up 3%) saying they are now worse off.

The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,181 face-to-face interviews conducted Australia-wide on the weekend of March 5/6, 2005.

Further information:

Monthly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating Figures
Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Yearly Average
1973			119.2			117.0			108.4			103.8	112.1
1974			103.2			95.6			90.6			92.2	95.4
1975			114.0			104.2			100.8			103.0	105.5
1976	113.6		107.0	110.2		107.0	105.6		108.0	108.8	101.2		107.7
1977	104.2		98.6	101.6		103.8	99.4		105.0	104.4	109.4		103.3
1978	119.2		114.8	110.8		109.6	101.6		91.2	104.4	103.6		106.9
1979	110.2		106.2	109.4		92.6	90.2		99.4	97.6	98.8		100.6
1980	98.8		100.8	97.4		101.6	98.2		104.4	109.8	106.4		102.2
1981	113.4		111.8	101.8		100.8	95.0		92.4	98.2	98.0		101.4
1982	92.4		91.8	93.6		92.2	80.4		84.6	81.2	75.2		86.4
1983	87.8		97.4	96.0		95.4	98.2		100.6	106.4	113.2		99.4
1984	124.6		120.8	120.8		115.6	116.6		118.2	117.8	114.6		118.6
1985	114.8		110.2	99.4		98.0	100.8		106.8	107.8	94.8		104.1
1986	105.4		103.8	94.6	94.8	91.6	79.8	79.8	78.8	89.8	85.6	88.8	90.3
1987	90.4	88.0	86.8	90.8	91.8	93.4	98.6	96.4	94.8	104.0	87.2	93.0	92.9
1988	100.4	98.8	103.6	106.2	104.0	104.0	107.6	108.2	112.4	108.8	104.2	105.8	105.3
1989	105.0	94.6	88.4	88.4	87.4	72.8	73.0	78.8	82.0	79.0	81.0	80.0	84.2
1990	101.6	95.6	83.4	88.3	84.7	83.1	79.6	83.9	75.6	71.4	73.1	71.3	82.6
1991	78.5	85.4	85.0	87.2	87.7	88.6	98.1	95.2	93.3	95.8	91.1	83.0	89.1
1992	93.6	95.9	96.2	105.4	101.6	97.7	95.4	96.9	96.8	101.2	93.6	92.9	97.3
1993	100.8	100.4	105.9	102.3	102.2	96.2	96.6	100.8	90.2	103.5	111.9	108.5	101.6
1994	120.5	127.5	125.7	127.7	125.2	128.0	127.6	123.8	123.6	124.6	118.1	118.0	124.2
1995	112.3	112.4	113.9	114.7	112.0	112.4	110.2	115.5	111.7	116.2	114.3	111.9	113.1
1996	116.7	119.1	123.7	121.5	118.8	117.8	112.3	114.4	113.2	111.3	113.4	113.2	116.3
1997	119.2	115.1	116.2	112.5	114.2	115.5	110.7	111.7	112.4	112.8	111.6	110.6	113.5
1998	117.8	116.0	114.9	110.2	114.4	109.8	107.6	111.1	111.0	113.9	114.2	114.7	112.8
1999	122.1	121.8	122.5	119.6	122.5	122.2	118.2	122.8	122.3	119.6	122.8	122.2	121.6
2000	122.3	119.9	112.9	116.6	112.0	108.7	114.8	119.1	115.8	115.6	110.3	112.3	115.0
2001	119.9	109.5	106.2	103.6	107.4	108.6	115.3	116.4	120.9*	106.8	109.4	113.3	111.4
2002	124.8	123.0	122.3	123.2	124.0	116.4	123.4	119.9	122.1	117.2	114.0	109.6	120.0
2003	122.5	113.4	109.9	120.8	127.0	122.4	123.2	122.4	123.2	121.2	124.2	120.4	120.9
2004	126.0	126.8	130.4	124.4	125.0	125.6	128.9	127.6	126	128.9	124.8	125.5	126.7
2005	133.2	132.0	121.5										128.9
Monthly Average	110.4	110.3	108.2	106.9	108.2	104.6	103.7	107.6	104.3	106.1	104.1	104.0	106.4
* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for September 15/16, 2001, conducted by telephone, was 102.3.

 

Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating* for the component questions over the more recent surveys are as follows:
2004		Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	June	July	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Interviews		983	1142	1038	1231	1160	1092	1246	1157	967	1187	1110	1120
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year?
Over the past year	better off	32	33	34	33	33	35	36	35	38	35	34	36
	worse off	29	29	25	26	27	26	23	27	23	25	21	23
QUESTION 1 difference		3	4	9	7	6	9	13	8	15	10	13	13
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now?
	better off	43	44	46	42	42	44	43	46	46	46	40	46
	worse off	14	14	10	13	16	12	13	12	13	11	13	12
QUESTION 2 difference		29	30	36	29	26	32	30	34	33	35	27	34
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in Australia as a whole. In the next 12 months, do you expect we?ll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad?
	good times	45	47	48	43	43	41	44	43	39	45	45	46
	bad times	18	20	14	19	20	18	16	16	16	14	16	16
QUESTION 3 difference		27	27	34	24	23	23	28	27	23	31	29	30
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in Australia as a whole, we?ll have continuous good times during the next 5 years of so> or we?ll have bad times> or some good and some bad?
	good times	35	41	39	35	35	35	37	37	33	37	34	33
	bad times	14	17	13	18	15	14	15	15	13	15	19	16
QUESTION 4 difference		21	24	26	17	20	21	22	11	20	22	15	17
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time> or a bad time> for people to buy major household times?
	good time to buy	63	62	59	60	60	56	62	58	53	58	53	51
	bad time to buy	13	13	12	13	10	13	10	11	14	13	13	18
QUESTION 5 difference		50	49	47	47	50	43	52	47	39	45	40	33
Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating		126.0	126.8	130.4	124.4	125.0	125.6	128.9	127.6	126	128.9	124.8	125.5
* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100.0 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give a favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.

 

Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating* for the component questions over the more recent surveys are as follows:
2005		Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	June	July	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Interviews		1,141	1,250	1,181
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year?
Over the past year	better off	36	36	35
	worse off	21	21	24
QUESTION 1 difference		15	15	11
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now?
	better off	47	46	44
	worse off	11	11	15
QUESTION 2 difference		36	35	29
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in Australia as a whole. In the next 12 months, do you expect we?ll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad?
	good times	52	50	39
	bad times	14	15	23
QUESTION 3 difference		38	35	16
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in Australia as a whole, we?ll have continuous good times during the next 5 years of so> or we?ll have bad times> or some good and some bad?
	good times	41	41	36
	bad times	14	13	16
QUESTION 4 difference		27	28	20
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time> or a bad time> for people to buy major household times?
	good time to buy	61	58	50
	bad time to buy	11	11	18
QUESTION 5 difference		50	47	32
Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating		133.2	132.0	121.5
* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100.0 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give a favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.

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