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L-NP Would Win Election, ALP Support Stable Under Beazley
In early February, primary support for the L-NP Coalition was unchanged at 45%, 1.4% below the result obtained by the L-NP at the recent Federal election. Support for the ALP dropped by 0.5% to 37.5% - 0.1% below the ALP result at the Federal election. If preferences of minor parties were allocated as they were at the 2004 Federal election (ALP — 60.5%, L-NP — 39.5%) the two-party preferred vote would be L-NP — 52%, ALP — 48%. Had an election been held in early February, the Coalition would have been returned with a slightly decreased majority, the latest Morgan Poll finds. Among the minor parties, support for the Greens was 9% (up 1%), Australian Democrats 2% (unchanged), Family First 2% (unchanged), One Nation 1% (down 0.5%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 3.5% (unchanged). Gary Morgan says: “Despite speculation of rising interest rates, Coalition support is still strong. “Special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research shows many L-NP supporters are happy with the way the Federal Government has handled the economy so far, and have confidence in how they will deal with the impending interest rates issue. ” During the period:
Special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research in which respondents gave their reason for voting was conducted on February 12/13, 2005. Many L-NP supporters mentioned Australia ’s robust economy as their reason for voting for the current Government. Comments included: “Because of potential tax cuts — the Opposition isn’t really an opposition” , “Liberal policies balance social security and economics”, “Mainly interest rates — Labor doesn’t know how to handle interest rates and the economy in general” , “Encourage economic development” and “They look after the economy better than anyone else — I think John Howard has done a fantastic job.” Some L-NP supporters also mentioned the Government’s conservatism, saying: “John Howard has got good Christian morals and that’s the way to go”, “I have the same conservative leanings” and “I prefer a more conservative approach”. Many ALP supporters were critical of John Howard and the L-NP Government’s policies, saying “I don’t like John Howard, he doesn’t listen to people and he’s so much like Bush” , “Public services are being down graded by the current Government, and I’m also concerned with forms of corruption” , “I very much object to the social agenda of this Government, particularly in regard to refugees, education and foreign policy” and “ I’m grossly dissatisfied with the current Government” . ALP supporters were typically satisfied with the Labor Party and its policies, saying: “The Labor party has a better emphasis on education”, “Kim Beazley is the only person who could do a better job than John Howard”, “The ALP is more socially progressive” and “Because of high taxes I don’t trust the Liberals” . On the question of who the electorate thinks will win the next Federal election, the L-NP is leading the ALP by a huge 45.5%. Now 67% (unchanged since late January) of electors think the L-NP will win the Federal election while 21.5% (unchanged) think the ALP will win (11.5% can’t say). This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekends of February 5/6 & 12/13, 2005, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,102 electors. Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today - which party would receive your first preference?” Of all electors surveyed, a low 3.5% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.
For further information:
THINK WILL WIN Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition ot the Labor Party?"
FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)
Morgan Poll sampling tolerance: The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution 3% (up 0.5%) did not name a party. View Federal Voting Intention Trend Finding No. 3836 is taken from Computer Report No. 2019 |
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