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COMPANY ONLINE STORE PRODUCTS SERVICES INDUSTRIES MORGAN POLL PAPERS PRESS RELEASES CONSUMER CONFIDENCE READERSHIP UNEMPLOYMENT THE REACTOR 
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L-NP Suffers Big Loss in Support After Rate Increase
In early March, shortly after the Reserve Bank of Australia announced a rise in interest rates, primary support for the L-NP Coalition fell 4% to 42%, 4.4% below the result obtained by the L-NP at the recent Federal election. Support for the ALP rose 4.5%, now at 43%. This is 5.4% above the ALP result at the Federal election and the highest result it has received since. If preferences of minor parties were allocated as they were at the 2004 Federal election (ALP — 60.5%, L-NP — 39.5%) the two-party preferred vote would be ALP — 52%, L-NP — 48%. Had an election been held in early March, the ALP would have won, the latest Morgan Poll finds. Among the minor parties, support for the Greens was 7% (down 0.5%), Australian Democrats 1.5% (down 0.5%), Family First 2.5% (up 1.5%), One Nation 1% (up 0.5%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 3% (down 1.5%). Gary Morgan says: “The substantial loss in support for the L-NP and the swing to the ALP is the electorate’s knee-jerk reaction to the rise in interest rates. “In the same period, Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence recorded a drop of 10.5 points — the largest drop since October 2001. Now at 121.5 points for March, the drop further indicates the electorate’s caution towards Australia ’s economy. (See www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2005/373/ ) “A telephone Morgan Poll conducted last week also showed that the majority of the electorate (63%) disapproved of Prime Minister John Howard’s decision to send an extra 450 Australian troops to Iraq . (See www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2005/3842/ )
“The next Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention will be released this Friday, March 18, and will show whether the swing to the ALP will be sustained.” During the period:
On the question of who the electorate thinks will win the next Federal election, the L-NP is leading the ALP by 26%. Now 57% (down 6.5% since late February) of electors think the L-NP will win the Federal election while 31% (up 7.5%) think the ALP will win (12% can’t say). This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekend of March 5/6 2005, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,015 electors. Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today - which party would receive your first preference?” Of all electors surveyed, 3.5% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.
For further information:
THINK WILL WIN Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition ot the Labor Party?"
FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)
Morgan Poll sampling tolerance: The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution 3% (down 0.5%) did not name a party. View Federal Voting Intention Trend
Finding No. 3843 is taken from Computer Report No. 2025 |
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