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In mid-March, a fortnight after the Reserve Bank of Australia announced a rise in interest rates, primary support for the L-NP Coalition rose 2.5% to 44.5%, 1.9% below the result obtained by the L-NP at the recent Federal election. Support for the ALP fell 6%, now at 37%. This is 0.6% below the ALP result at the Federal election.

If preferences of minor parties were allocated as they were at the 2004 Federal election (ALP — 60.5%, L-NP — 39.5%) the two-party preferred vote would be L-NP — 52%, ALP — 48%. Had an election been held in mid- March, the L-NP would have won, the latest Morgan Poll finds.

Among the minor parties, support for the Greens was 10% (up 3%), Australian Democrats 1% (down 0.5%), Family First 2.5% (unchanged), One Nation 1% (unchanged) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 4% (up 1%).

Gary Morgan says:

“Earlier this week we released a Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention that reflected the electorate’s knee-jerk reaction to the interest rate rise. The ALP was ahead on both Primary support (ALP — 43%, L-NP — 42%, others 15%) and two-party preferred vote (ALP — 52% cf L-NP — 48%).

“This latest Morgan Poll shows the L-NP regain its lead (L-NP — 52% cf ALP — 48%) and suggests last week’s ALP lead could not be sustained.

“Special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research conducted March 12/13 shows that many L-NP supporters approve of the way the current Government is handling the economy.”

During the period:

•  Federal Treasurer Peter Costello refused to confirm or deny speculation that this year’s budget could be more than $10 billion in surplus. Some economists believe the Budget could provide a windfall that is nearly double Treasury’s most recent estimate. Extra revenue is likely to have come from increased company profits and high personal income tax from rising wages.

•  Prime Minister John Howard urged people to have perspective on the state of the economy, saying interest rates were historically low despite the recent rise and that recent job figures showed the underlying strength of the economy.

•  Australia played host to Prince Charles as well as Denmark ’s Crown Prince Frederik and Crown Princess Mary.

Special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research in which respondents gave their reason for voting was conducted on March 12/13, 2005.

Many L-NP supporters mentioned Australia ’s robust economy as their reason for voting for the current Government. Comments included: “The Coalition offers the best monetary policies” , “Liberal Party have managed the economy well, the people of Australia seem well-off under the Liberal Government”, “They have controlled the economy well — the State Labor Government’s are ruining the economy with taxes” , “For its taxation levels and tax breaks” and “Good track record for economy, jobs and interest rates.”

Some L-NP supporters also mentioned the Government’s conservatism, saying: “John Howard is the best Prime Minister and a Christian” .

Many ALP supporters mentioned the Howard Government’s upcoming Senate majority as their reason for supporting the ALP, with comments such as “I believe the policies of the Liberal Party are a bit harsh. When they have control of the Senate we will be going backwards” , “The extent of the majority now in Canberra is excessive and dangerous” and “Don’t agree with some of the decisions made by the current Government. In July they will get control — I’m worried about that.”

Other ALP supporters were critical of John Howard and the L-NP Government’s policies, particularly in relation to the War in Iraq, saying “The current Government is too conservative — the Capital is not caring for the people” , “John Howard lies and does not have his priorities right” , “I’m not happy with the Liberal’s attitude to War” , “I don’t like the Liberals and the War in Iraq” and “ I don’t like John Howard — taxes are too high” .

ALP supporters were typically satisfied with the Labor Party and its policies, saying: “I like Kim Beazley better than John Howard”, “The Labor Party will increase the welfare of families”, “The ALP want to lower HECS fees” and “The ALP look after the workers — Liberals are trying to change the Industrial Relations system”.

On the question of who the electorate thinks will win the next Federal election, the L-NP is leading the ALP by 32.5%. Now 60% (up 3% since early March) of electors think the L-NP will win the Federal election while 27.5% (down 3.5%) think the ALP will win (12.5% can’t say).

This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekend of March 12/13 2005, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 989 electors. Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today - which party would receive your first preference?” Of all electors surveyed, 3.5% (unchanged) did not name a party.

For further information:

Blayney Morgan:      Office (03) 9224 5206       Mobile 0411 442 454

THINK WILL WIN

Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition ot the Labor Party?"

Think Will Win	L-NP	ALP	Can't Say
	%	%	%
October 30/31 & November 6/7, 2004	56	28	16
November 13/14 & 20/21, 2004	55.5	30	14.5
November 27/28 & December 4/5, 2004	63.5	23	13.5
December 11/12 & 18/19, 2004	64	23.5	12.5
January 8/9 & 15/16, 2005	69.5	19.5	11
January 22/23 & 29/30, 2005	67	21.5	11.5
February 5/6 & 12/13, 2005	67	21.5	11.5
February 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	63.5	23.5	13
March 5/6, 2005	57	31	12
March 12/13, 2005	60	27.5	12.5

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

PRIMARY VOTE	L-NP	ALP	Aust. Dem. #	The Greens	Family First#	One Nation #	Ind./ Others#
Election March 2, 1996	47.3 (8.6)	38.8	6.8	1.7	*	N/A	5.4
Election October 3, 1998 1	39.5 (5.3)	40.1	5.1	2.1	*	8.5	4.7
Election November 10, 2001	43 (5.6)	37.8	5.4	4.4	*	4.3	5.1
Election October 9, 2004	46.4 (5.9)	37.6	1.2	7.2	2	1.2	4.4
MORGAN POLL
Oct 30/31 & Nov 6/7, 2004	44.5 (2.5)	39.5	2	8.5	2	1	2.5
Nov 13/14 & 20/21, 2004	44 (3)	39	2	8.5	1.5	1	4
Nov 27/28 & Dec 4/5, 2004	46.5 (2.5)	36	1.5	9	2.5	1	3.5
Dec 11/12 & 18/19, 2004	45.5 (3)	36.5	1.5	9.5	2	1.5	3.5
Jan 8/9 & 15/16, 2005	47 (3.5)	37	1.5	7.5	2	1	4
Jan 22/23 & 29/30, 2005	45 (2.5)	38	2	8	2	1.5	3.5
Feb 5/6 & 12/13, 2005	45 (2.5)	37.5	2	9	2	1	3.5
Feb 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	46 (2.5)	38.5	2	7.5	1	0.5	4.5
Mar 5/6, 2005	42 (2.5)	43	1.5	7	2.5	1	3
Mar 12/13, 2005	44.5 (2.5)	37	1	10	2.5	1	4
Note: National Party results are in brackets # Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution *The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004 1 October 3, 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.

Morgan Poll sampling tolerance:

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample size	Percentage estimate
	25-75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
1000	Â ± 3	Â ± 2	Â ± 1½

# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution
Sample: 989 electors interviewed face-to-face on March 12/13, 2005

3.5% (unchanged) did not name a party.

View Federal Voting Intention Trend

Finding No. 3844 is taken from Computer Report No. 2026

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