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COMPANY ONLINE STORE PRODUCTS SERVICES INDUSTRIES MORGAN POLL PAPERS PRESS RELEASES CONSUMER CONFIDENCE READERSHIP UNEMPLOYMENT THE REACTOR 
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L-NP Support Up 2.5% to 44.5% Two Weeks After Rate Rise
In mid-March, a fortnight after the Reserve Bank of Australia announced a rise in interest rates, primary support for the L-NP Coalition rose 2.5% to 44.5%, 1.9% below the result obtained by the L-NP at the recent Federal election. Support for the ALP fell 6%, now at 37%. This is 0.6% below the ALP result at the Federal election. If preferences of minor parties were allocated as they were at the 2004 Federal election (ALP — 60.5%, L-NP — 39.5%) the two-party preferred vote would be L-NP — 52%, ALP — 48%. Had an election been held in mid- March, the L-NP would have won, the latest Morgan Poll finds. Among the minor parties, support for the Greens was 10% (up 3%), Australian Democrats 1% (down 0.5%), Family First 2.5% (unchanged), One Nation 1% (unchanged) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 4% (up 1%). Gary Morgan says: “Earlier this week we released a Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention that reflected the electorate’s knee-jerk reaction to the interest rate rise. The ALP was ahead on both Primary support (ALP — 43%, L-NP — 42%, others 15%) and two-party preferred vote (ALP — 52% cf L-NP — 48%). “This latest Morgan Poll shows the L-NP regain its lead (L-NP — 52% cf ALP — 48%) and suggests last week’s ALP lead could not be sustained. “Special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research conducted March 12/13 shows that many L-NP supporters approve of the way the current Government is handling the economy.” During the period:
Special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research in which respondents gave their reason for voting was conducted on March 12/13, 2005. Many L-NP supporters mentioned Australia ’s robust economy as their reason for voting for the current Government. Comments included: “The Coalition offers the best monetary policies” , “Liberal Party have managed the economy well, the people of Australia seem well-off under the Liberal Government”, “They have controlled the economy well — the State Labor Government’s are ruining the economy with taxes” , “For its taxation levels and tax breaks” and “Good track record for economy, jobs and interest rates.” Some L-NP supporters also mentioned the Government’s conservatism, saying: “John Howard is the best Prime Minister and a Christian” . Many ALP supporters mentioned the Howard Government’s upcoming Senate majority as their reason for supporting the ALP, with comments such as “I believe the policies of the Liberal Party are a bit harsh. When they have control of the Senate we will be going backwards” , “The extent of the majority now in Canberra is excessive and dangerous” and “Don’t agree with some of the decisions made by the current Government. In July they will get control — I’m worried about that.” Other ALP supporters were critical of John Howard and the L-NP Government’s policies, particularly in relation to the War in Iraq, saying “The current Government is too conservative — the Capital is not caring for the people” , “John Howard lies and does not have his priorities right” , “I’m not happy with the Liberal’s attitude to War” , “I don’t like the Liberals and the War in Iraq” and “ I don’t like John Howard — taxes are too high” . ALP supporters were typically satisfied with the Labor Party and its policies, saying: “I like Kim Beazley better than John Howard”, “The Labor Party will increase the welfare of families”, “The ALP want to lower HECS fees” and “The ALP look after the workers — Liberals are trying to change the Industrial Relations system”. On the question of who the electorate thinks will win the next Federal election, the L-NP is leading the ALP by 32.5%. Now 60% (up 3% since early March) of electors think the L-NP will win the Federal election while 27.5% (down 3.5%) think the ALP will win (12.5% can’t say). This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekend of March 12/13 2005, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 989 electors. Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today - which party would receive your first preference?” Of all electors surveyed, 3.5% (unchanged) did not name a party.
For further information: Blayney Morgan: Office (03) 9224 5206 Mobile 0411 442 454 THINK WILL WIN Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition ot the Labor Party?"
FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)
Morgan Poll sampling tolerance: The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution 3.5% (unchanged) did not name a party. View Federal Voting Intention Trend
Finding No. 3844 is taken from Computer Report No. 2026 |
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