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In late March, primary support for the L-NP Coalition fell 0.5% to 44%, 2.4% below the result obtained by the L-NP at the recent Federal election. Support for the ALP rose 2%, now at 39%. This is 1.4% above the ALP result at the Federal election.

If preferences of minor parties were allocated as they were at the 2004 Federal election (ALP — 60.5%, L-NP — 39.5%) the two-party preferred vote would be L-NP — 50.5%, ALP — 49.5%. Had an election been held in late March, the result would have been close and would be decided on minor party preferences, the latest Morgan Poll finds.

Among the minor parties, support for the Greens was 8% (down 2%), Australian Democrats 1.5% (up 0.5%), Family First 2% (down 0.5%), One Nation 1% (unchanged) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 4.5% (up 0.5%).

Gary Morgan says:

“This latest Morgan Poll shows the Primary vote has stabilised after the reaction against interest rates in early March. Primary support for the ALP has risen and an election at this time would be close.”

During the period:

•  Federal Treasurer Peter Costello met with State and Territory Treasurers after offering $330 million funding in return for the abolition of range of State stamp duties. Mr Costello says it is a good deal which will cut taxes in Australia by $8.5 billion. Victorian Treasurer John Brumby said none of the State or Territory Treasurers would agree to the deal and it was hard to imagine a worse offer. Prime Minister John Howard said he would not rule out rewriting the GST funding arrangements if the Treasurers did not agree.

•  Mr Howard revealed the Federal Government will release a group of long-term detainees from immigration detention on the understanding that the detainees will return to their home country once they are able to do so. Refugee advocates protested at the Baxter Detention Centre over the Easter weekend.

•  It was reported that Liberal Senator Ross Lightfoot helped carry $25,000 in cash into Iraq for Australia ’s largest oil company, Woodside Petroleum. The Opposition demanded an investigation, while Senator Lightfoot denies the allegations and is considering legal action. Mr Howard says Senator Lightfoot’s denial is ‘credible’.

•  Parliament passed legislation to dissolve the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Commission (ATSIC).

On the question of who the electorate thinks will win the next Federal election, the L-NP is leading the ALP by 29.5%. Now 57.5% (down 2.5% since mid March) of electors think the L-NP will win the Federal election while 28% (up 0.5%) think the ALP will win (14.5% can’t say).

This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekends of March 19/20 and 26/27 2005, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,891 electors. Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today - which party would receive your first preference?” Of all electors surveyed, 4.5% (up 1%) did not name a party.

For further information:

Gary Morgan	Office (03) 9224 5213	Mobile 0411 129 094	Home (03) 9419 3242
Michele Levine	Office (03) 9224 5215	Mobile 0411 129 093	Home (03) 9817 3066

THINK WILL WIN

Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition ot the Labor Party?"

Think Will Win	L-NP	ALP	Can't Say
	%	%	%
October 30/31 & November 6/7, 2004	56	28	16
November 13/14 & 20/21, 2004	55.5	30	14.5
November 27/28 & December 4/5, 2004	63.5	23	13.5
December 11/12 & 18/19, 2004	64	23.5	12.5
January 8/9 & 15/16, 2005	69.5	19.5	11
January 22/23 & 29/30, 2005	67	21.5	11.5
February 5/6 & 12/13, 2005	67	21.5	11.5
February 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	63.5	23.5	13
March 5/6, 2005	57	31	12
March 12/13, 2005	60	27.5	12.5
Mar 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	57.5	28	14.5

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

PRIMARY VOTE	L-NP	ALP	Aust. Dem. #	The Greens	Family First#	One Nation #	Ind./ Others#
Election March 2, 1996	47.3 (8.6)	38.8	6.8	1.7	*	N/A	5.4
Election October 3, 1998 1	39.5 (5.3)	40.1	5.1	2.1	*	8.5	4.7
Election November 10, 2001	43 (5.6)	37.8	5.4	4.4	*	4.3	5.1
Election October 9, 2004	46.4 (5.9)	37.6	1.2	7.2	2	1.2	4.4
MORGAN POLL
Oct 30/31 & Nov 6/7, 2004	44.5 (2.5)	39.5	2	8.5	2	1	2.5
Nov 13/14 & 20/21, 2004	44 (3)	39	2	8.5	1.5	1	4
Nov 27/28 & Dec 4/5, 2004	46.5 (2.5)	36	1.5	9	2.5	1	3.5
Dec 11/12 & 18/19, 2004	45.5 (3)	36.5	1.5	9.5	2	1.5	3.5
Jan 8/9 & 15/16, 2005	47 (3.5)	37	1.5	7.5	2	1	4
Jan 22/23 & 29/30, 2005	45 (2.5)	38	2	8	2	1.5	3.5
Feb 5/6 & 12/13, 2005	45 (2.5)	37.5	2	9	2	1	3.5
Feb 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	46 (2.5)	38.5	2	7.5	1	0.5	4.5
Mar 5/6, 2005	42 (2.5)	43	1.5	7	2.5	1	3
Mar 12/13, 2005	44.5 (2.5)	37	1	10	2.5	1	4
Mar 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	44 (2.5)	39	1.5	8	2	1	4.5
Note: National Party results are in brackets # Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution *The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004 1 October 3, 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.

Morgan Poll sampling tolerance:

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample size	Percentage estimate
	25-75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
1000	Â ± 3	Â ± 2	Â ± 1½

# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution
Sample: 1,891 electors interviewed face-to-face on March 19/20 & 26/27, 2005

4.5% (up 1%) did not name a party.

View Federal Voting Intention Trend

Finding No. 3848 is taken from Computer Report No. 2029

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