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ALP Primary Support Up 4% To 43%, L-NP Down 3.5% To 40.5%, ALP Would Win
In early April, after the Reserve Bank announced a hold on interest rates and before Prime Minister John Howard announced changes to the Medicare system, primary support for the ALP rose 4% to 43%, 5.4% above the result obtained by the ALP at the October 2004 Federal election. Support for the L-NP fell 3.5%, now at 40.5%. This is 5.9% below the L-NP result at the Federal election. If preferences of minor parties were allocated as they were at the 2004 Federal election (ALP — 60.5%, L-NP — 39.5%) the two-party preferred vote would be ALP — 53%, L-NP — 47%. Had an election been held in early April, the ALP would have won, the latest Morgan Poll finds. Among the minor parties, support for the Greens was 8% (unchanged), Australian Democrats 1.5% (unchanged), Family First 2% (unchanged), One Nation 1.5% (up 0.5%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 3.5% (down 1%). Gary Morgan says: “The latest results must be of concern to the L-NP, and Mr Howard in particular. “Even before the latest back flip - changing the Medicare ‘Safety Net’ - was announced, there was concern in the electorate about broken promises and the Government not delivering on promises. “There is also a continued undercurrent of ‘dishonesty’ and ‘lies’ emerging throughout the qualitative research, especially associated with John Howard. “However, the real concern for the L-NP must be interest rates. Support for the L-NP is driven predominantly by their perceived strength as better economic managers and their ability to keep interest rates low. “The electorate remains concerned about interest rates, despite the Reserve Bank deciding to hold interest rates in April. “Continued discussion about the sale of WMC Resources to BHP Billiton and the undercurrent of concerns over overseas control and uranium issues is just another thing for the Howard L-NP Government to deal with at this time.” During the period:
Special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research in which respondents gave their reason for voting was conducted on April 9/10, 2005. Many L-NP supporters mentioned the economy as their reason for voting for the current Government. Comments included: “[The Liberal Party have] done a good job of the economy. The country is going well”, “We have quality of life”, “Historically good managers of economy”, “The Liberal Party has put Australia on a strong economic footing”, “The economy — more jobs”, “Labor are not good economically” and “I don’t think the Labor Party can control money, they would get us into the red”. L-NP supporters were generally satisfied with Mr Howard and the L-NP, saying: “Howard is honest and I trust him”, “They have kept the country afloat and I like John Howard, he is a good leader”, “I like John Howard. He’s a great, honest PM. Trustworthy” and “The country is pretty good with the Liberal Party”. Some L-NP supporters were critical of Mr Beazley’s leadership and Labor Party policies, with comments such as: “I dislike the leader of ALP”, “The Opposition has no good leader for the top job” and “I’ve lost faith in Labor across the board and their in-house fighting”. Many ALP Supporters were dissatisfied with Mr Howard and the L-NP Government policies, with comments such as: “I want to see some changes to the refugee detention problems”, “Because the Liberal Governments is liberal with the truth”, “I disagree with the Liberals actions on detention and Centrelink changes”, “Lying cheating Prime Minister, you can’t believe a word they say” and “Growing disillusionment with Howard Government, time for a change. Howard is too far to the right”. ALP supporters were typically satisfied with the Labor Party and its policies, saying: “The Labor Party considers family values”, “The Labor Party is less conservative. It is a worker’s Party. Grass root level”, “The ALP is far more in touch with the common people, the Liberals govern for business” and “Labor are socially aware. They give everyone a fair go” On the question of who the electorate thinks will win the next Federal election, the L-NP is leading the ALP by 29.5%. Now 57.5% (unchanged since late March) of electors think the L-NP will win the Federal election while 28% (unchanged) think the ALP will win (14.5% can’t say). This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekends of April 2/3 and 9/10, 2005, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,006 electors. Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today - which party would receive your first preference?” Of all electors surveyed, 4.5% (unchanged) did not name a party.
For further information:
THINK WILL WIN Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition ot the Labor Party?"
FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)
Morgan Poll sampling tolerance: The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution 4.5% (unchanged) did not name a party. View Federal Voting Intention Trend
Finding No. 3852 is taken from Computer Report No. 2030 |
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