L-NP Primary Support Up 1.5% to 42%, ALP Down 3% to 40%, Election Would Be Close
| Finding No. 3859 -
April 30, 2005 |
In mid-April, primary support for the L-NP rose 1.5 to 42%, 4.4% below the result obtained by the L-NP at the October 2004 Federal election. Support for the ALP fell 3%, now at 40%. This is 2.4% above the ALP result at the Federal election.
If preferences of minor parties were allocated as they were at the 2004 Federal election (ALP — 60.5%, L-NP — 39.5%) the two-party preferred vote would be ALP — 51%, L-NP — 49%. Had an election been held in mid-April, the ALP would have won with minor party preferences, the latest Morgan Poll finds.
Among the minor parties, support for the Greens was 8.5% (up 0.5%), Australian Democrats 2% (up 0.5%), Family First 1.5% (down 0.5%), One Nation 1% (down 0.5%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 5% (up 1.5%).
Gary Morgan says:
“While the latest Morgan Poll shows a small swing towards the L-NP, it is still a long way from the Coalition’s January high of 47%.
“This result comes after the Federal Government reached an agreement with several of the Labor State Governments, which will result in the abolition of a range of state stamp duties in return for the state’s share of GST funding.”
During the period:
• Prime Minister John Howard announced that the Government would be lifting the threshold on the Medicare Safety Net. The changes to the safety net are said to hit lower income earners the hardest. This comes after the Federal Health Minister Tony Abbot last year referred to the Medicare Safety net a s “ an absolutely rock solid, iron-clad commitment”.
• Speculation arose that the Government may cut Medicare funding for IVF treatments in the upcoming Federal Budget.
• After drawn out negotiations Treasurer Peter Costello accepted a deal for six of the States and Territories to abolish of range of State stamp duties in return for their share of GST revenue. Victoria , Queensland , Tasmania , South Australia , the ACT and the Northern Territory have agreed to cut State-based taxes such as stamp duty on leases, mortgages and bonds. New South Wales and Western Australian Governments are still in negotiations with the Federal Government.
• Malaysia 's Prime Minister, Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, says Australia must sign the non-aggression pact if it wants to take part in the East Asia Summit later this year. The Australian Government has been under pressure to sign the pact .
• Germany ’s Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger (Pope Benedict XVI ) was elected as the successor to Pope John Paul II.
• Former Queensland Premier Sir Joh Bjelke-Petersen passed away in a Kingaroy hospital.
• The trial of accused drug smuggler Schapelle Corby continued in Indonesia . Prosecutors will push for a life sentence if Schapelle is found guilty.
• Nine Australians were detained in Bali after being caught attempting to export a large quantity of heroin.
On the question of who the electorate thinks will win the next Federal election, the L-NP is leading the ALP by 23.5%. Now 55% (down 2.5% since early April) of electors think the L-NP will win the Federal election while 31.5% (up 3.5%) think the ALP will win (13.5% can’t say).
This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekends of April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,984 electors. Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today - which party would receive your first preference?” Of all electors surveyed , 4.5% (unchanged) did not name a party.
For further information:
|
Michele Levine |
Office (03) 9224 5215 |
Mobile 0411 129 093 |
Home (03) 9817 3066 |
THINK WILL WIN
Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition ot the Labor Party?"
| Think Will Win |
L-NP |
ALP |
Can't Say |
| |
% |
% |
% |
| October 30/31 & November 6/7, 2004 |
56 |
28 |
16 |
| November 13/14 & 20/21, 2004 |
55.5 |
30 |
14.5 |
| November 27/28 & December 4/5, 2004 |
63.5 |
23 |
13.5 |
| December 11/12 & 18/19, 2004 |
64 |
23.5 |
12.5 |
| January 8/9 & 15/16, 2005 |
69.5 |
19.5 |
11 |
| January 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 |
67 |
21.5 |
11.5 |
| February 5/6 & 12/13, 2005 |
67 |
21.5 |
11.5 |
| February 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
63.5 |
23.5 |
13 |
| March 5/6, 2005 |
57 |
31 |
12 |
| March 12/13, 2005 |
60 |
27.5 |
12.5 |
| March 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
57.5 |
28 |
14.5 |
| April 2/3 & 9/10, 2005 |
57.5 |
28 |
14.5 |
| April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005 |
55 |
31.5 |
13.5 |
FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)
| PRIMARY VOTE |
L-NP |
ALP |
Aust.
Dem. # |
The
Greens |
Family
First# |
One
Nation # |
Ind./
Others# |
| Election March 2, 1996 |
47.3 (8.6) |
38.8 |
6.8 |
1.7 |
* |
N/A |
5.4 |
| Election October 3, 1998 1 |
39.5 (5.3) |
40.1 |
5.1 |
2.1 |
* |
8.5 |
4.7 |
| Election November 10, 2001 |
43 (5.6) |
37.8 |
5.4 |
4.4 |
* |
4.3 |
5.1 |
| Election October 9, 2004 |
46.4 (5.9) |
37.6 |
1.2 |
7.2 |
2 |
1.2 |
4.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| MORGAN POLL |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Oct 30/31 & Nov 6/7, 2004 |
44.5 (2.5) |
39.5 |
2 |
8.5 |
2 |
1 |
2.5 |
| Nov 13/14 & 20/21, 2004 |
44 (3) |
39 |
2 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
4 |
| Nov 27/28 & Dec 4/5, 2004 |
46.5 (2.5) |
36 |
1.5 |
9 |
2.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
| Dec 11/12 & 18/19, 2004 |
45.5 (3) |
36.5 |
1.5 |
9.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
| Jan 8/9 & 15/16, 2005 |
47 (3.5) |
37 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
2 |
1 |
4 |
| Jan 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 |
45 (2.5) |
38 |
2 |
8 |
2 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
| Feb 5/6 & 12/13, 2005 |
45 (2.5) |
37.5 |
2 |
9 |
2 |
1 |
3.5 |
| Feb 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
46 (2.5) |
38.5 |
2 |
7.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
| Mar 5/6, 2005 |
42 (2.5) |
43 |
1.5 |
7 |
2.5 |
1 |
3 |
| Mar 12/13, 2005 |
44.5 (2.5) |
37 |
1 |
10 |
2.5 |
1 |
4 |
| Mar 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
44 (2.5) |
39 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
4.5 |
| Apr 2/3 & 9/10, 2005 |
40.5 (1.5) |
43 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
| April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005 |
42 (2) |
40 |
2 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
5 |
|
Note: National Party results are in brackets
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution
*The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004
1 October 3, 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle. |
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%) |
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
L-NP |
ALP |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
Election March 2, 1996 |
53.6 |
46.4 |
|
|
|
Election October 3, 1998 |
49 |
51 |
|
|
| Election November 10, 2001 |
51 |
49 |
|
|
| Election October 9, 2004 |
52.7 |
47.3 |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
MORGAN POLL |
Preferences distributed
by how electors
say they will vote |
Preferences distributed
by how electors voted
at the 2004 election |
| Oct 30/31 & Novr 6/7, 2004 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
| Nov 13/14 & 20/21, 2004 |
50 |
50 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
| Nov 27/28 & Dec 4/5, 2004 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
53 |
47 |
| Dec 11/12 & 18/19, 2004 |
51 |
49 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
| Jan 8/9 & 15/16, 2005 |
53.5 |
46.5 |
53 |
47 |
| Jan 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
| Feb 5/6 & 12/13, 2005 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
52 |
48 |
| Feb 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
52 |
48 |
52 |
48 |
| Mar 5/6, 2005 |
47.5 |
52.5 |
48 |
52 |
| Mar 12/13, 2005 |
51.5 |
48.5 |
52 |
48 |
| Mar 19/20 & 26/27, 2005 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
| April 2/3 & 9/10, 2005 |
46 |
54 |
47 |
53 |
| April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005 |
48 |
52 |
49 |
51 |
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES (%) |
| |
Mar 12/13 |
Mar 19/20 & 26/27 |
Apr 2/3 & 9/10 |
Apr 16/17 & 23/24 |
| MORGAN POLL |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
| Australian Democrats # |
25.5 |
74.5 |
44.5 |
55.5 |
52.5 |
47.5 |
16 |
84 |
|
The Greens |
21 |
79 |
20 |
80 |
13.5 |
86.5 |
14 |
86 |
|
Family First# |
55 |
45 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
49 |
51 |
50 |
50 |
|
One Nation # |
75.5 |
24.5 |
40.5 |
59.5 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
70.5 |
29.5 |
|
Independent/Other |
49.5 |
50.5 |
50.5 |
49.5 |
49.5 |
50.5 |
46 |
54 |
Morgan Poll sampling tolerance:
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|
Sample size |
Percentage estimate |
| |
25-75% |
10% or 90% |
5% or 95% |
|
1000 |
 ± 3 |
 ± 2 |
 ± 1½ |
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution
Sample: 1,984 electors interviewed face-to-face on April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005
4.5% (unchanged) did not name a party.
View Federal Voting Intention Trend
Finding No. 3859 is taken from Computer Report No. 2037 |
