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In early May, just before the L-NP Government released the Federal Budget and during a period of leadership tension within the Liberal Party, primary support for the ALP rose 2.5% to 42.5, 4.9% above the ALP result at the October 2004 Federal election. Support for the L-NP remained stable at 42%. This is 4.4% below the L-NP result at the Federal election.

If preferences of minor parties were allocated as they were at the 2004 Federal election (ALP — 60.5%, L-NP — 39.5%) the two-party preferred vote would be ALP — 52%, L-NP — 48%. Had an election been held in early May, the ALP would have won with minor party preferences, the latest Morgan Poll finds.

Among the minor parties, support for the Greens was 8% (down 0.5%), Australian Democrats 1.5% (down 0.5%), Family First 1.5% (unchanged), One Nation 1% (unchanged) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 3.5% (down 1.5%).

Gary Morgan says:

“The latest Morgan Poll shows the ALP slightly ahead of the L-NP in primary voting intention. This poll was taken just before the Government released the 2005/2006 Federal Budget. The next Morgan Poll will indicate what effect, if any, this budget has had on Federal Voting Intention.”

During the period:

•  Speculation over the leadership of the Liberal Party arose after Prime Minister John Howard indicated he plans to stay in the top job until the next election. Mr Howard and Treasurer, Peter Costello, discussed tensions over the leadership during a meeting in Sydney , and although Mr Costello said leadership speculation is not in the interests of the Government and the Liberal Party, he did not rule out a leadership challenge.

•  Australian Citizen Douglas Wood was taken captive by Iraqi militants. On a videotape released by his captors, Mr Wood pleaded with Prime Minister Howard to withdraw Australian troops from Iraq . A Government task force was sent to Iraq to negotiate Mr Wood's release, but Mr Howard said Australia would not withdraw the 900 troops stationed in Iraq .

•  The Federal Government said it was confident a single national industrial relations system will go ahead. Workplace Relations Minister Kevin Andrews said that there is no doubt that the Federal Government has the constitutional power to be able to bring up to 85% of employees in Australia into one national system.

•  The Australian Immigration department admitted it wrongly deported an Australian woman, Vivian Alvarez, four years ago. Acting Immigration Minister, Peter McGauran indicated that the department has also uncovered other cases of wrongful detention on its files.

•  New South Wales and Western Australian Governments continued to debate the issue of GST revenue with Treasurer Peter Costello. The New South Wales Government released legal advice which it says proves the states and territories have met their obligations and do not need to abolish any more business taxes.

•  British Prime Minister Tony Blair was elected for a third consecutive term in office. The Labor Party won the required 324 seats to win Government but its majority was slashed by nearly 100 seats to 66.

Special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research in which respondents gave their reason for voting was conducted on May 7/8, 2005.

Many L-NP supporters mentioned satisfaction with current policies as their reason for voting for the Government, with comments such as: “The L-NP are a progressive party with better governance and less restrictive policies”, I believe in Industrial Reform and Privatisation” and “The Liberal Party are the one party with leadership. They have done well with welfare — more flexible and manageable. I like their policy for the aged”.

L-NP supporters were generally satisfied with Mr Howard’s leadership of the L-NP, however Mr Costello seemed to be a less appealing option, with common responses being: “I like Howard. If no Howard I would vote Labor”, “Howard is balanced and trustworthy”, “Howard is very sensible and weighs his decisions very well” and “I would consider Labor if things change. I am not keen on Costello as a leader”.

Some L-NP supporters were critical of Labor Party policies and leadership, with comments such as: “I don’t like Labor, they put the country in debt”, “I don’t believe Labor have the drive or the potential to lead the country”, “ The Labor Party only spends, and doesn’t consider what it has to spend” and “The Labor party has no leaders”.

Many ALP Supporters were dissatisfied with Mr Howard and the L-NP Government policies, particularly in regard to the war on Iraq, with comments such as: “I can’s stand Howard, his policy on asylum seekers is appalling. He tells lies. I opposed the Iraq war”, “I don’t trust the L-NP’s close relationship with the USA . I do not trust John Howard, he is easily led.”, “I do not like John Howard’s war agenda”, “I disagree with the Liberals sending troops overseas.” and “Howard’s mandatory detention policy is inhumane”.

ALP supporters were typically satisfied with the Labor Party and its policies, saying: “The Labor Party are more progressive with education, the economy and aged care”, “Labor is the peoples party. They reflect the hope and aspirations of the people” and “Labor addresses the needs of the people who are most needy”.

On the question of who the electorate thinks will win the next Federal election, the L-NP is leading the ALP by 30%. Now 59% (up 4% since mid April) of electors think the L-NP will win the Federal election while 29% (down 2.5%) think the ALP will win (12% can’t say).

This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekends of April 30/May 1 & May 7/8, 2005, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,795 electors. Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today - which party would receive your first preference?” Of all electors surveyed , 4% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.

For further information:

Michele Levine

Office (03) 9224 5215

Mobile 0411 129 093

Home (03) 9817 3066

THINK WILL WIN

Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition ot the Labor Party?"

Think Will Win	L-NP	ALP	Can't Say
	%	%	%
October 30/31 & November 6/7, 2004	56	28	16
November 13/14 & 20/21, 2004	55.5	30	14.5
November 27/28 & December 4/5, 2004	63.5	23	13.5
December 11/12 & 18/19, 2004	64	23.5	12.5
January 8/9 & 15/16, 2005	69.5	19.5	11
January 22/23 & 29/30, 2005	67	21.5	11.5
February 5/6 & 12/13, 2005	67	21.5	11.5
February 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	63.5	23.5	13
March 5/6, 2005	57	31	12
March 12/13, 2005	60	27.5	12.5
March 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	57.5	28	14.5
April 2/3 & 9/10, 2005	57.5	28	14.5
April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005	55	31.5	13.5
April 30/May 1 & May 7/8	59	29	12

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

PRIMARY VOTE	L-NP	ALP	Aust. Dem. #	The Greens	Family First#	One Nation #	Ind./ Others#
Election March 2, 1996	47.3 (8.6)	38.8	6.8	1.7	*	N/A	5.4
Election October 3, 1998 1	39.5 (5.3)	40.1	5.1	2.1	*	8.5	4.7
Election November 10, 2001	43 (5.6)	37.8	5.4	4.4	*	4.3	5.1
Election October 9, 2004	46.4 (5.9)	37.6	1.2	7.2	2	1.2	4.4
MORGAN POLL
Oct 30/31 & Nov 6/7, 2004	44.5 (2.5)	39.5	2	8.5	2	1	2.5
Nov 13/14 & 20/21, 2004	44 (3)	39	2	8.5	1.5	1	4
Nov 27/28 & Dec 4/5, 2004	46.5 (2.5)	36	1.5	9	2.5	1	3.5
Dec 11/12 & 18/19, 2004	45.5 (3)	36.5	1.5	9.5	2	1.5	3.5
Jan 8/9 & 15/16, 2005	47 (3.5)	37	1.5	7.5	2	1	4
Jan 22/23 & 29/30, 2005	45 (2.5)	38	2	8	2	1.5	3.5
Feb 5/6 & 12/13, 2005	45 (2.5)	37.5	2	9	2	1	3.5
Feb 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	46 (2.5)	38.5	2	7.5	1	0.5	4.5
Mar 5/6, 2005	42 (2.5)	43	1.5	7	2.5	1	3
Mar 12/13, 2005	44.5 (2.5)	37	1	10	2.5	1	4
Mar 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	44 (2.5)	39	1.5	8	2	1	4.5
Apr 2/3 & 9/10, 2005	40.5 (1.5)	43	1.5	8	2	1.5	3.5
April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005	42 (2)	40	2	8.5	1.5	1	5
April 30/May 1 & May 7/8	42(2.5)	42.5	1.5	8	1.5	1	3.5
Note: National Party results are in brackets # Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution *The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004 1 October 3, 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.

Morgan Poll sampling tolerance:

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample size	Percentage estimate
	25-75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
1000	Â ± 3	Â ± 2	Â ± 1½

# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution
Sample: 1,795 electors interviewed face-to-face on April 30/May 1 & May 7/8, 2005

4% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.

View Federal Voting Intention Trend

Finding No. 3861 is taken from Computer Report No. 2038

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