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In mid May, just after the L-NP Government released the 2005/2006 Federal Budget, primary support for the L-NP rose 1% to 43%, 3.4% below the L-NP result at the October 2004 Federal election. Support for the ALP fell 1.5%, now at 41%. This is 3.4% above the ALP result at the Federal election.

If preferences of minor parties were allocated as they were at the 2004 Federal election (ALP — 60.5%, L-NP — 39.5%) the ‘two-party’ preferred vote would be ALP — 50.5% (down 1.5%), L-NP — 49.5% (up 1.5%). Had an election been held in mid May, the election would be too close to call, the latest Morgan Poll finds.

Among the minor parties, support for the Greens was 8% (unchanged), Australian Democrats 1.5% (unchanged), Family First 2% (up 0.5%), One Nation 0.5% (down 0.5%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 4% (up 0.5%).

Gary Morgan says:

“The first Morgan Poll taken after the 2005/2006 Federal Budget shows an increase in primary support for the L-NP. On a ‘two-party’ preferred basis the vote would be too close to call, however support for the L-NP has increased, indicating a positive response toward the Budget.”

During the period:

•  Treasurer Peter Costello announced his 10th Federal Budget. Mr Costello said it is a "Budget for the future”. The Budget delivered tax cuts to all tax payers, including businesses, abolished the superannuation surcharge which affected middle and upper income earners and delivered financial ‘back to work’ incentives. The Budget also confirmed that the Federal Government plans to establish a 'Future Fund' to help pay for unfunded superannuation liabilities and save for the demands of an ageing Australian population.

•  In his reply to the Budget, Labor Opposition leader Kim Beazley said the ALP is not against tax reform, however the proposed tax cuts do not deliver enough tax relief for low and middle-income earners. He vowed to vote against the outlined tax restructure in the Senate.

•  The Australian Council of Trade Unions said it will continue to oppose the Federal Government's proposed changes to the industrial relations (IR) system, through protests, strong advertising and educational campaigns. The Government intends to centralise the system and institute individual workplace agreements between workers and employers.

•  Australian citizen Douglas Wood remained hostage in Iraq . The deadline for the removal of Australian Troops from Iraq passed and the Australian Government continued to make it clear they would not bend to the demands of the Iraqi Militants. Several efforts were made to secure Mr Wood’s release, with an Australian Muslim leader, Sheikh Taj El-din Al Hilaly, traveling to Iraq to aid negotiations, and Mr Wood’s family offering a donation to the people of Iraq.

•  The Queensland woman, who was wrongfully deported from Australia four years ago, was located in a hospice north of Manilla. Vivian Solon, also known as Vivian Alvarez, was reunited with her sister and is planning a trip to Australia to see her two children. Prime Minister John Howard offered an apology for the wrongful deportation and said says he will wait for the results of the closed inquiry being held by the former Australian Federal Police commissioner, Mick Palmer, before considering what further steps should be taken.

On the question of who the electorate thinks will win the next Federal election, the L-NP is leading the ALP by 40%. Now 63.5% (up 4.5% since early May) of electors think the L-NP will win the Federal election while 23.5% (down 5.5%) think the ALP will win (13% can’t say).

This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekend of May 14/15, 2005, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,007 electors. Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today - which party would receive your first preference?” Of all electors surveyed , 5% (up 1%) did not name a party.

For further information:

Gary Morgan	Office (03) 9224 5213	Mobile 0411 129 094	Home (03) 9419 3242
Michele Levine	Office (03) 9224 5215	Mobile 0411 129 093	Home (03) 9817 3066

THINK WILL WIN

Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition ot the Labor Party?"

Think Will Win	L-NP	ALP	Can't Say
	%	%	%
October 30/31 & November 6/7, 2004	56	28	16
November 13/14 & 20/21, 2004	55.5	30	14.5
November 27/28 & December 4/5, 2004	63.5	23	13.5
December 11/12 & 18/19, 2004	64	23.5	12.5
January 8/9 & 15/16, 2005	69.5	19.5	11
January 22/23 & 29/30, 2005	67	21.5	11.5
February 5/6 & 12/13, 2005	67	21.5	11.5
February 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	63.5	23.5	13
March 5/6, 2005	57	31	12
March 12/13, 2005	60	27.5	12.5
March 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	57.5	28	14.5
April 2/3 & 9/10, 2005	57.5	28	14.5
April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005	55	31.5	13.5
April 30/May 1 & May 7/8	59	29	12
May 14/15, 2005	63.5	23.5	13

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

PRIMARY VOTE	L-NP	ALP	Aust. Dem. #	The Greens	Family First#	One Nation #	Ind./ Others#
Election March 2, 1996	47.3 (8.6)	38.8	6.8	1.7	*	N/A	5.4
Election October 3, 1998 1	39.5 (5.3)	40.1	5.1	2.1	*	8.5	4.7
Election November 10, 2001	43 (5.6)	37.8	5.4	4.4	*	4.3	5.1
Election October 9, 2004	46.4 (5.9)	37.6	1.2	7.2	2	1.2	4.4
MORGAN POLL
Oct 30/31 & Nov 6/7, 2004	44.5 (2.5)	39.5	2	8.5	2	1	2.5
Nov 13/14 & 20/21, 2004	44 (3)	39	2	8.5	1.5	1	4
Nov 27/28 & Dec 4/5, 2004	46.5 (2.5)	36	1.5	9	2.5	1	3.5
Dec 11/12 & 18/19, 2004	45.5 (3)	36.5	1.5	9.5	2	1.5	3.5
Jan 8/9 & 15/16, 2005	47 (3.5)	37	1.5	7.5	2	1	4
Jan 22/23 & 29/30, 2005	45 (2.5)	38	2	8	2	1.5	3.5
Feb 5/6 & 12/13, 2005	45 (2.5)	37.5	2	9	2	1	3.5
Feb 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	46 (2.5)	38.5	2	7.5	1	0.5	4.5
Mar 5/6, 2005	42 (2.5)	43	1.5	7	2.5	1	3
Mar 12/13, 2005	44.5 (2.5)	37	1	10	2.5	1	4
Mar 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	44 (2.5)	39	1.5	8	2	1	4.5
Apr 2/3 & 9/10, 2005	40.5 (1.5)	43	1.5	8	2	1.5	3.5
April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005	42 (2)	40	2	8.5	1.5	1	5
April 30/May 1 & May 7/8	42(2.5)	42.5	1.5	8	1.5	1	3.5
May 14/15, 2005	43(1.5)	41	1.5	8	2	0.5	4
Note: National Party results are in brackets # Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution *The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004 1 October 3, 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.

Morgan Poll sampling tolerance:

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample size	Percentage estimate
	25-75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
1000	Â ± 3	Â ± 2	Â ± 1½

# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution
Sample: 1,007 electors interviewed face-to-face on May 14/15, 2005

5% (up 1%) did not name a party.

View Federal Voting Intention Trend

Finding No. 3862 is taken from Computer Report No. 2039

© 2007 Roy Morgan Research. All Rights Reserved
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