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In late May, primary support for the L-NP rose 2% to 45%, 1.4% below the L-NP result at the October 2004 Federal election. Support for the ALP fell 2%, now at 39%. This is 1.4% above the ALP result at the Federal election.

If preferences of minor parties were allocated as they were at the 2004 Federal election (ALP — 60.5%, L-NP — 39.5%) the ‘two-party’ preferred vote would be L-NP — 51.5% (up 2%), ALP — 48.5% (down 2%). Had an election been held in late May, the L-NP would have won with a reduced majority, the latest Morgan Poll finds.

Among the minor parties, support for the Greens was 7.5% (down 0.5%), Australian Democrats 1.5% (unchanged), Family First 1.5% (down 0.5%), One Nation 0.5% (unchanged) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 5% (up 1%).

Gary Morgan says:

“Primary support for the L-NP continues to rise since the Budget tax cuts. The L-NP is experiencing their highest level of support since February, whilst primary support for the ALP has continued to fall over the past two months. On a ‘two-party’ preferred basis, the L-NP would win with a reduced majority, perhaps indicating a favourable public response towards the upcoming tax cuts.”

During the period:

•  The Australian Tax Office (ATO) came up with a way for the tax cuts announced in the Federal Budget to be delivered on July 1. The ATO will give employers a form allowing for tax cuts to be implemented in July, regardless of whether legislation has been passed. This would be tabled in Parliament and Labor could vote to strike it down. If the tax office form is disallowed, the tax cuts could be brought in by legislation in August.

•  Schapelle Corby was sentenced to 20 years in prison and fined $13,875 for smuggling 4.1 kilograms of marijuana into Bali . Both the defence and the prosecution are planning to appeal against the sentence. Ms Corby's Australian lawyer, Robin Tampoe, says an offer of legal help from the Federal Government will probably be accepted.

•  Prime Minister John Howard outlined changes to the Industrial Relations laws governing Australian workplaces. Under the changes, awards would be simplified, with long service leave, notice of termination, superannuation and jury duty no longer covered. Businesses with up to 100 employees would be exempt from unfair dismissal laws. There will be new arrangements for setting minimum wages, with the establishment of a new Fair Pay Commission.

•  Proposed changes to the Industrial Relations laws were condemned by Labor and the union movement, whilst an Australian Industry Group survey showed that manufacturing firms strongly backed the Federal Government's plan to reshape workplace relations laws.

•  Prime Minister John Howard toured drought-hit properties in Western New South Wales . The Federal Cabinet then met to discuss a package to help farmers survive the drought. The Federal Government said it will also be seeking help from the states to fund the support for farmers.

•  Deputy Prime Minister, John Anderson, acknowledged he did not tell the states about a Government plan to take over regulation of Australia 's major port facilities. The New South Wales and Queensland governments reacted angrily to the news. Mr Anderson said he wants the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) to take control of the country's port facilities, such as Queensland 's Dalrymple Bay and Port Botany in New South Wales , to ease bottlenecks and improve capacity.

•  Three year old Naomi Leong was released from Villawood Detention centre, after being detained there since birth. The Opposition criticised the Government’s handling of the situation and called for Senator Vanstone to be sacked over the management of recent immigration detention cases. Prime Minister John Howard defended Ms Vanstone and expressed his strong support for her administration of what he believes to be a very difficult portfolio.

•  The Australian Muslim cleric (Sheik Taj el-Din Al Hilaly) said he spoke on the phone to a man identifying himself as Australian hostage Douglas Wood. A spokesperson for Sheik Taj el-Din Al Hilaly said that the abductors put a man on the phone who spoke English and who identified himself as Mr Wood.

On the question of who the electorate thinks will win the next Federal election, the L-NP is leading the ALP by 32.5%. Now 59.5% (down 4% since mid May) of electors think the L-NP will win the Federal election while 27% (up 3.5%) think the ALP will win (13.5% can’t say).

This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekend of May 21/22 & 28/29, 2005, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,887 electors. Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today - which party would receive your first preference?” Of all electors surveyed , 4% (down 1%) did not name a party.

For further information:

Gary Morgan	Office (03) 9224 5213	Mobile 0411 129 094	Home (03) 9419 3242
Michele Levine	Office (03) 9224 5215	Mobile 0411 129 093	Home (03) 9817 3066

THINK WILL WIN

Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition ot the Labor Party?"

Think Will Win	L-NP	ALP	Can't Say
	%	%	%
October 30/31 & November 6/7, 2004	56	28	16
November 13/14 & 20/21, 2004	55.5	30	14.5
November 27/28 & December 4/5, 2004	63.5	23	13.5
December 11/12 & 18/19, 2004	64	23.5	12.5
January 8/9 & 15/16, 2005	69.5	19.5	11
January 22/23 & 29/30, 2005	67	21.5	11.5
February 5/6 & 12/13, 2005	67	21.5	11.5
February 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	63.5	23.5	13
March 5/6, 2005	57	31	12
March 12/13, 2005	60	27.5	12.5
March 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	57.5	28	14.5
April 2/3 & 9/10, 2005	57.5	28	14.5
April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005	55	31.5	13.5
April 30/May 1 & May 7/8, 2005	59	29	12
May 14/15, 2005	63.5	23.5	13
May 21/22 & 28/29, 2005	59.5	27	13.5

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

PRIMARY VOTE	L-NP	ALP	Aust. Dem. #	The Greens	Family First#	One Nation #	Ind./ Others#
Election March 2, 1996	47.3 (8.6)	38.8	6.8	1.7	*	N/A	5.4
Election October 3, 1998 1	39.5 (5.3)	40.1	5.1	2.1	*	8.5	4.7
Election November 10, 2001	43 (5.6)	37.8	5.4	4.4	*	4.3	5.1
Election October 9, 2004	46.4 (5.9)	37.6	1.2	7.2	2	1.2	4.4
MORGAN POLL
Oct 30/31 & Nov 6/7, 2004	44.5 (2.5)	39.5	2	8.5	2	1	2.5
Nov 13/14 & 20/21, 2004	44 (3)	39	2	8.5	1.5	1	4
Nov 27/28 & Dec 4/5, 2004	46.5 (2.5)	36	1.5	9	2.5	1	3.5
Dec 11/12 & 18/19, 2004	45.5 (3)	36.5	1.5	9.5	2	1.5	3.5
Jan 8/9 & 15/16, 2005	47 (3.5)	37	1.5	7.5	2	1	4
Jan 22/23 & 29/30, 2005	45 (2.5)	38	2	8	2	1.5	3.5
Feb 5/6 & 12/13, 2005	45 (2.5)	37.5	2	9	2	1	3.5
Feb 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	46 (2.5)	38.5	2	7.5	1	0.5	4.5
Mar 5/6, 2005	42 (2.5)	43	1.5	7	2.5	1	3
Mar 12/13, 2005	44.5 (2.5)	37	1	10	2.5	1	4
Mar 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	44 (2.5)	39	1.5	8	2	1	4.5
Apr 2/3 & 9/10, 2005	40.5 (1.5)	43	1.5	8	2	1.5	3.5
April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005	42 (2)	40	2	8.5	1.5	1	5
April 30/May 1 & May 7/8, 2005	42(2.5)	42.5	1.5	8	1.5	1	3.5
May 14/15, 2005	43(1.5)	41	1.5	8	2	0.5	4
May 21/22 & 28/29, 2005	45 (2)	39	1.5	7.5	1.5	0.5	5
Note: National Party results are in brackets # Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution *The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004 1 October 3, 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.

Morgan Poll sampling tolerance:

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample size	Percentage estimate
	25-75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
1000	Â ± 3	Â ± 2	Â ± 1½

# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution
Sample: 1,887 electors interviewed face-to-face on May 21/22 & 28/29, 2005

4% (down 1%) did not name a party.

View Federal Voting Intention Trend

Finding No. 3865 is taken from Computer Report No. 2042

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