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L-NP Primary Support Down 1.5% to 43.5%, Election Now Would Be Too Close To Call
In early June, primary support for the ALP rose 0.5% to 39.5%, 1.9% above the ALP result at the October 2004 Federal election. Support for the L-NP fell 1.5%, to 43.5%, which is 2.9% below the L-NP result at the Federal election. If preferences of minor parties were allocated as they were at the 2004 Federal election (ALP — 60.5%, L-NP — 39.5%) the ‘two-party’ preferred vote would be L-NP — 50% (down 1.5%), ALP — 50% (up 1.5%). Had an election been held in early June, the election would be too close to call, the latest Morgan Poll finds. Among the minor parties, support for the Greens was 7.5% (unchanged), Australian Democrats 1.5% (unchanged), Family First 2% (up 0.5%), One Nation 1.5% (up 1%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 4.5% (down 0.5%). Gary Morgan says: “Although primary support for the L-NP is still relatively high at 43.5%, Special Morgan Poll Qualitative Research shows the 1.5% fall in support is a reflection of the criticism surrounding the Government’s immigration policy and the treatment of people in detention centres. On a ‘two-party’ preferred basis, the election would be too close to call if held now.” During the period: • Prime Minister John Howard met with Liberal MP Petro Georgiou to discuss changes to the Government's immigration detention policy. Mr Georgiou was demanding the release of women, children and all long-term detainees from immigration detention centres, and said that if he was unhappy with the Prime Minister’s response he would introduce his private member’s bills to Parliament by June 20. • The Industrial Relations debate between the State and Federal Governments continued with State and Territory leaders gathering in Canberra for the Council of Australian Governments meeting. Agreements were reached in the areas of health, apprenticeships and infrastructure, however State and Federal Governments were unable to agree on Industrial Relations. • Prime Minister John Howard announced a $250 million package to help farmers affected by the drought. The package includes a doubling of the threshold for off-farm assets, a lift in interest rate subsidies from 50% to 80% and a change to the income test. Mr Howard said there will also be more money for special programs to help those affected by the drought and access to welfare will be easier. • Transport Minister John Anderson announced plans to significantly tighten security at Australia 's airports, after a 2004 Customs report, which found serious security breaches, was leaked. International security expert, Sir John Wheeler, will conduct a review and report findings to the Government by September. Mr Anderson said a new test for airport workers was being developed, and the Government will increase supervision at airports with help from the Australian Federal Police. • Prime Minister John Howard rejected accusations from a former SAS officer that Australia 's Defence Force was involved in a cover-up over a special forces operation in Afghanistan which ended with the deaths of 11 civilians. The Defence Force is re-investigating the incident which occurred in 2002. • Mr Chen, a Chinese diplomat seeking political asylum in Australia , claimed the Chinese Government has up to 1,000 spies operating in Australia . Mr Chen also claimed that his Government had kidnapped Chinese nationals working in Australia and forced them to return to China . These claims were supported by a former security officer who has defected from China . The Opposition said the Government must act immediately to protect Mr Chen regardless of current negotiations with China . • The Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates on hold at 5.5 per cent. Recent economic indicators, the impact of the drought and below target growth figures had indicated that there would be no change. • The Industrial Relations Commission held a minimum wage case hearing in which it announced that the nation's lowest paid workers will receive an extra $17 a week. The 3.6% increase will lift the minimum wage from $467.40 to $484.40. Special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research in which respondents gave their reason for voting was conducted on June 4/5, 2005. Many L-NP supporters mentioned satisfaction with current policies and the state of the economy as their reasons for voting for the Government, with comments such as: “They have good Industrial Relations policies”, “Border security, Immigration and Economic Management”, “I am satisfied with the Government’s balanced approach to economic policy, taxation etc”, “ They have done a good job with the economy - Low unemployment - Low Interest Rates” and “Good Economic Management - they are careful how money is spent”. L-NP supporters were generally satisfied with Mr Howard’s leadership of the L-NP, with common responses being: “John Howard is the best Prime Minister they have had in my lifetime”, “No-one better than Howard. He has managed all the difficult problems well”, “Howard has done well — kept Interest Rates down” and “I think John Howard is the man for the job”. Some L-NP supporters were critical of Labor Party policies and leadership, with comments such as: “I don’t trust the Labor Party because of their lack of good financial management”, “Labor has a poor history of economic management. The unions get too much power” and “I don’t like Beazley. I think he’s a clown”. Many ALP Supporters were dissatisfied with Mr Howard and the L-NP Government policies, particularly in regard to Immigration and Industrial Relations, with comments such as: “I disagree with Liberal policies. I don’t like the new Industrial Relations laws and GST”, “The way the present Government treats people in detention centres is not good”, “I am concerned about Industrial Relations changes. The refugee status is also very concerning”, “I am not particularly impressed with John Howard at the moment. I don’t agree with mandatory detention” and “You can’t print what I think of Howard, that scary little man. His powers are divisive”. ALP supporters were typically satisfied with the Labor Party and its policies, saying: “Labor will help those on a low budget. Struggling families need help”, “More focus on education and public health”, “Their education, health and foreign affairs policies appeal to me” and “I approve of their policies, particularly on immigration”. On the question of who the electorate thinks will win the next Federal election, the L-NP leads the ALP by 34%. Now 61% (up 1.5% since late May) of electors think the L-NP will win the Federal election while 27% (unchanged) think the ALP will win (12% can’t say). This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekend of June 4/5 & 11/12, 2005, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,883 electors. Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today - which party would receive your first preference?” Of all electors surveyed , 3% (down 1%) did not name a party.
For further information:
THINK WILL WIN Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition ot the Labor Party?"
FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)
Morgan Poll sampling tolerance: The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution 3% (down 1%) did not name a party. View Federal Voting Intention Trend
Finding No. 3868 is taken from Computer Report No. 2043 |
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