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L-NP Primary Support Down 1.5% to 42%, Election Would Be Too Close To Call
In late June, primary support for the ALP remained unchanged on 39.5%, 1.9% above the ALP result at the October 2004 Federal election. Support for the L-NP fell 1.5%, to 42%, which is 4.4% below the L-NP result at the Federal election. If preferences of minor parties were allocated as they were at the 2004 Federal election (ALP — 60.5%, L-NP — 39.5%) the ‘two-party’ preferred vote would be ALP — 50.5% (up 0.5%), L-NP — 49.5% (down 0.5%). Had an election been held in late June, the election would be too close to call, the latest Morgan Poll finds. Among the minor parties, support for the Greens was 9% (up 1.5%), Australian Democrats 2% (up 0.5%), Family First 2.5% (up 0.5%), One Nation 1% (down 0.5%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 4% (down 0.5%). Gary Morgan says: “Primary support for the L-NP fell a further 1.5% to 42%. This can be attributed to the continuing controversy surrounding the Government’s immigration policy and treatment of people in detention centres. On a ‘two-party’ preferred basis, an election held in late June would have been too close to call.” During the period: • Prime Minister John Howard announced major changes to Australia 's system of immigration detention. Families with children will be placed in community housing, and thousands of those on temporary protection visas will be allowed to stay in Australia permanently. The primary decision on an asylum seeker's case must be made within three months, and the Refugee Review Tribunal must also finalise decisions within three months. Long-term detainees who have been held for two years will have their cases referred to the Commonwealth ombudsman for review. • Liberal MP Petro Georgiou, said the proposed changes to Australia ’s system of immigration detention do not go far enough. Mr Georgiou proposed bills which would provide for the release of women and children from detention and quicker resolution of all cases to end long-term detention. Prime Minister John Howard said he was prepared to discuss the policy changes further. • A senior immigration official accused the Federal Government of trying to cover up the bungling of up to 200 cases of wrongful detention. The cases are under investigation by the inquiry headed by former Australian Federal Police commissioner Mick Palmer. Mr Palmer delayed handing in his initial findings in order to give those identified in the report an opportunity to respond to it. • Federal Labor and Greens Senators agreed to support an inquiry into the Government's handling of the defection of the former Chinese diplomat Chen Yonglin. Greens Senator Bob Brown said Labor's support of the inquiry means the Senate can scrutinise the circumstances surrounding Mr Chen's application for political asylum, and the way the Government is handling his case. • John Anderson resigned as Leader of the National Party due to family and health reasons. Mark Vaile was elected as his successor and will also take up the role of Deputy Prime Minister. • Australian hostage Douglas Wood, who had been held hostage in Iraq for more than six weeks, was rescued in a military operation conducted by Iraqi forces in cooperation with United States forces. Prime Minister John Howard said no ransom was paid for Mr Wood's release. • Labor Leader Clare Martin declared victory in the Northern Territory election and said she was surprised by the extent of the swing towards the ALP. Ms Martin attributed the Labor win to the commitment towards health and education and Labor's strong plans for the future. • Federal Labor leader Kim Beazley unveiled his new frontbench team. Simon Crean and Laurie Ferguson lost their high-profile trade and immigration portfolios. Former senior minister Lindsay Tanner will return to the frontbench as finance spokesman and Tony Burke, New South Wales MP, will move into immigration. Foreign affairs spokesman Kevin Rudd will add trade to his responsibilities, while Wayne Swan will remain in treasury. Mr Beazley said of his new team; "I'm setting up a team of heavy hitters at the heart of the development of Labor's economic policy". On the question of who the electorate thinks will win the next Federal election, the L-NP leads the ALP by 32.5%. Now 59.5% (down 1.5% since early June) of electors think the L-NP will win the Federal election while 27% (unchanged) think the ALP will win (13.5% can’t say). This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekend of June 18/19 & 25/26, 2005, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,789 electors. Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today - which party would receive your first preference?” Of all electors surveyed , 4% (up 1%) did not name a party. For further information:
THINK WILL WIN Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition ot the Labor Party?"
FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)
Morgan Poll sampling tolerance: The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution 4% (up 1%) did not name a party. View Federal Voting Intention Trend
Finding No. 3875 is taken from Computer Report No. 2049 |
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