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| NEWS : Morgan Poll : | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Election Would Be Close If Held Now - Increase In Support For Both Major Parties
In early July, primary support for the ALP rose 1% to 40.5%, 2.9% above the ALP result at the October 2004 Federal election. Support for the L- NP rose 0.5% to 42.5%, which is 3.9% below the L-NP result at the Federal election. If preferences of minor parties were allocated as they were at the 2004 Federal election (ALP — 60.5%, L-NP — 39.5%) the ‘two-party’ preferred vote would be ALP — 51% (up 0.5%), L-NP — 49% (down 0.5%). Had an election been held in early July , the election would have been too close to call, the latest Morgan Poll finds. Among the minor parties, support for the Greens was 7.5% (down 1.5%), Australian Democrats 1.5% (down 0.5%), Family First 2.5% (unchanged), One Nation 1% (unchanged) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 4.5% (up 0.5%). Gary Morgan says: "Despite continued criticism of the Government’s proposed Industrial Relations reforms, primary support for the L-NP rose slightly (0.5%). Special Morgan Poll Qualitative Research shows economic stability is a driving force behind this. It is interesting to note that none of the L-NP supporters mentioned concerns with the proposed Industrial Relations reforms. "Primary support for the ALP also rose (1%). This increase in support is a reflection of public reaction towards the L-NP’s proposed Industrial Relations changes. "This latest Morgan Poll shows primary support polarising towards the major parties at the expense of the Greens and other minor parties." During the period: • At least 54 people were killed in London and hundreds injured when four bombs exploded on a bus and the London Underground. The Secret Organisation of Al Qaeda in Europe claimed responsibility for the bombings in a statement posted on the Internet. The group said Britain is burning because of its role in Afghanistan and Iraq . They have also threatened further attacks across Europe . • Tens of thousands of people took part in rallies across Australia protesting against the Federal Government’s proposed Industrial Relations changes. • Opposition Leader Kim Beazley called on the Government to guarantee Australian workers will still have four weeks holiday each year under proposed Industrial Relations changes. Workplace Relations Minister Kevin Andrews responded by saying the changes would still require employers to offer at least four weeks leave, but would give workers the option of being paid out if they want to reduce their leave entitlement. • The Federal Government began an advertising campaign which defends plans to change Australian workplace laws. Newspaper advertisements said the changes to Industrial Relations will not take away workers rights to strike or join a union, or cut four weeks' annual leave or award wages. (See Article published in The Australian Financial Review) • Former Labor Leader Mark Latham launched his new biography. The book is scathing in its criticism of Opposition Leader Kim Beazley, the Labor Party and several State Labor Premiers. Mr Beazley dismissed Mr Latham’s criticism of his performance and said he doubts he will be reading the book. Mr Beazley also denied Mr Latham’s claims that Labor is a spent force in Australian politics. • Celebrations were launched across London after the city won the right to host the 2012 Olympics ahead of Paris, the closest rival. • The tax cuts introduced in the 2005/2006 Federal Budget came into effect, along with changes to the superannuation laws which enable employees to choose which superannuation fund they contribute to. • The Reserve Bank left interest rates unchanged on 5.5% for the fourth month in a row. Economists tipped that the next movement in official interest rates will be down, but not until the second half of next year. • Changes to the Federal Government's frontbench were made official with a swearing-in ceremony at Government House in Canberra . New Nationals leader Mark Vaile replaced John Anderson as Deputy Prime Minister and retained the Trade portfolio, whilst Warren Truss was sworn in as the Minister for Transport and Regional Services. Peter McGauran and John Cobb also took their oath of office in front of the Governor-General and Senator Sandy MacDonald was sworn in as a member of the executive council and as a parliamentary secretary, along with Bruce Billson. Special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research in which respondents gave their reason for voting was conducted on July 9/10, 2005. L-NP supporters were generally satisfied with the state of the economy and current L-NP policies, with common responses being: “The L-NP are the only party economically sound enough to govern the country”, “They have kept interest rates and inflation low”, “The Liberals are better financial managers and I like their policies”, “They are responsible and are doing a good job leading the country economically” and “I am satisfied with the L-NP’s policies and don’t trust any of the alternatives”. L-NP supporters were also in favour of Mr Howard’s leadership, with comments such as: “John Howard has integrity”, “I’m a John Howard supporter. He shows a lot of interest in a whole range of issues. He has always given it a go and done his best for Australia ”, “What Mr Howard says, he does. He has guts to stand up for what he thinks is right” and “The Prime Minister has a progressive attitude to most things”. Some L-NP supporters questioned the stability of the Labor Party, saying: “I don’t think the Labor Party know where they are at present. They are not credible”, “The Labor Party is in a bit of a shambles”, “Labor needs to be more stable before I will consider them” and “The opposition is very disorganised”. Despite publicity surrounding the proposed Industrial Relations changes, supporters of the L-NP did not mention concerns on this issue. ALP Supporters were largely dissatisfied with the L-NP Government and the proposed Industrial Relations changes, with comments such as: “The Liberals will cause instability within families and the nation”, “The Liberals are lying bastards”, “The Industrial Relations Reforms terrify me”, “I don’t like the Industrial Relations Reforms the Government is bringing in. There will be a lot more casual workers because employers will be able to drop people. People will lose their permanent entitlements.” and “The Liberals are liars. They are deceitful and the Industrial Relations laws are unacceptable”. ALP supporters were typically satisfied with the Labor Party and its policies, saying: “The Labor Party policies align most closely with my social conscience”, “Through the Labor Party my hopes and aspirations are reflected” and “I think the Labor Party have honest policies for working people”. On the question of who the electorate thinks will win the next Federal election, the L-NP leads the ALP by 33%. Now 60% (up 0.5% since late June) of electors think the L-NP will win the Federal election while 27% (unchanged) think the ALP will win (13% can’t say). This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekend of July 2/3 & 9/10, 2005, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,049 electors. Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today - which party would receive your first preference?” Of all electors surveyed , 4% (unchanged) did not name a party.
For further information:
THINK WILL WIN Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition ot the Labor Party?"
FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)
Morgan Poll sampling tolerance: The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution 4% (unchanged) did not name a party. View Federal Voting Intention Trend
Finding No. 3876 is taken from Computer Report No. 2050 |
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