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| COMPANY ONLINE STORE PRODUCTS SERVICES INDUSTRIES MORGAN POLL PAPERS PRESS RELEASES CONSUMER CONFIDENCE READERSHIP UNEMPLOYMENT THE REACTOR CAREERS | ||||
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Election Would Be Close If Held Now, Slight Fall In Support For Both Major Parties
In mid July, primary support for the ALP fell 2% to 38.5%, 0.9% above the ALP result at the October 2004 Federal election. Support for the L-NP fell 1% to 41.5%, which is 4.9% below the L-NP result at the Federal election. If preferences of minor parties were allocated as they were at the 2004 Federal election (ALP — 60.5%, L-NP — 39.5%) the ‘two-party’ preferred vote would be ALP — 50.5% (down 0.5%), L-NP — 49.5% (up 0.5%). Had an election been held in mid July , it would have been too close to call, the latest Morgan Poll finds. Among the minor parties, support for the Greens was 8% (up 0.5%), Australian Democrats 2.5% (up 1%), Family First 1.5% (down 1%), One Nation 2% (up 1%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 6% (up 1.5%). Gary Morgan says: “Although primary support for both major parties fell slightly during this latest Morgan Poll, primary support for the L-NP is the lowest it has been since early in April 2005. On a ‘two-party’ preferred basis an election would have been too close to call.” During the period: • Prime Minister John Howard argued the ‘economic case’ for Industrial Relations reform at an address to the Sydney Institute. Mr Howard said that building a culture of enterprise in the workplace is a never-ending challenge and without the Government's changes Australia will continue to lag behind the United States , China and India in terms of productivity. Mr Howard also said he believes the changes will deliver higher living standards while easing the burden on taxpayers. • In the wake of the London bombings John Howard said he is prepared to discuss the issue of a National Identity Card as part of the fight against terrorism. The suggestion generated division within the Coalition, with Defence Minister Robert Hill saying he would not support an identity card that was unnecessarily intrusive, but would keep an open mind. • The Palmer inquiry's final report into the cases of Cornelia Rau and Vivian Solon was released. Prime Minister John Howard accepted the recommendations of the report and apologised to Ms Rau and Ms Solon. Mr Howard said a new team will be put in place at the top of the department to implement the changes rendered important. The changes will include a 28-day limit for holding immigration detainees in state jails and detainees will be fingerprinted as part of a new processes for identification. • The Federal Opposition renewed calls to remove Amanda Vanstone from her position as Immigration Minister after two children, Janie & Ian Whang, who were taken from a Sydney classroom and placed in immigration detention in March, were released. They had been locked up for four months before the department discovered they had valid visas. • Melbourne businessman Steve Vizard who was facing civil charges for using confidential information for share trading, told the Federal Court he made a fundamental error in judgement when he used confidential Telstra information for share trading five years ago and said he was deeply sorry for letting down his fellow directors, colleagues, family and the community. The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) said Mr Vizard's admission of guilt and his genuine statement of contrition merit a lesser penalty than the maximum. • Prime Minister John Howard announced that Australia will send 150 elite SAS troops and supporting officers to Afghanistan by September for a 12-month deployment. The Australian Defence Force will also look at sending up to 200 soldiers to work on reconstruction, dependent on discussions with Australia 's allies. • Prime Minister John Howard and United States President George Bush announced during a joint press conference in Washington that troops would remain in Iraq ‘until they job is done’. On the question of who the electorate thinks will win the next Federal election, the L-NP leads the ALP by 35.5%. Now 61.5% (up 1.5% since early July) of electors think the L-NP will win the Federal election while 26% (down 1%) think the ALP will win (12.5% can’t say). This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekend of July 16/17 & 23/24, 2005, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,847 electors. Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today - which party would receive your first preference?” Of all electors surveyed , 4.5% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.
For further information:
THINK WILL WIN Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"
FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)
Morgan Poll sampling tolerance: The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution 4.5% (up 0.5%) did not name a party. View Federal Voting Intention Trend
Finding No. 3880 is taken from Computer Report No. 2051 |
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