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NSW ALP Government Primary Support Down 0.5% to 42% in July, ALP Would Win

Finding No. 3882 - July 30, 2005

During July, before Bob Carr resigned, the NSW ALP State Government’s primary support fell 0.5% to 42% and support for the L-NP also fell 0.5% to 39%.

On a two-party preferred basis, with preferences distributed as they were at the 2003 State election, the ALP, with 53.5%, had a 7% lead over the L-NP (46.5%). If a NSW State election had been held during July, the ALP would have won, the latest Morgan Poll finds.

Among the minor parties, primary support for the Greens was 7% (down 1%), Australian Democrats 1% (unchanged), One Nation 1% (up 0.5%) and Independent Candidates and Other Parties 10% (up 1.5%).

Gary Morgan says:

“Primary support for the ALP Government remained relatively stable during July. It will be interesting to see how NSW voters react in the next Morgan Poll, after the resignation of Premier Bob Carr earlier this week (Wednesday 27th July).”

During the polling period:

• The New South Wales Government continued their standoff with the Federal Government in the debate about distribution of GST revenue. Federal Treasurer Peter Costello renewed his threat to take action against New South Wales and Western Australia - the only two States continuing to refuse to abolish State taxes in return for GST revenue.

• The Federal Government threatened to withhold more than $3 billion of funding for New South Wales Schools. The Federal Education Minister, Brendan Nelson, said the Carr Government is not implementing the new school report system quickly enough.

• The New South Wales Government chose a site in southern Sydney for the proposed $2 billion desalination plant. The plant will supply Sydney with drinking water if the drought continues.

• The New South Wales Opposition said a report given to Sydney Water more than 25 years ago shows that the ALP Government had more than a decade to act to prevent Sydney 's water shortages. The report warned unless urgent measures were put in place, Sydney would run out of water by the year 2000.

• The New South Wales Government boosted security across the Sydney rail network in the wake to the London terrorist attacks.

Respondents gave reasons for voting for their preferred party during special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research, conducted on July 16/17, 2005.

ALP supporters were largely critical of the L-NP Opposition and their leader John Brogden, saying; “John Brogden fires shots but doesn’t have his own original ideas”, “The Opposition are hopeless” and “There are not many arguments posed by the Opposition”.

Liberal supporters were largely critical of Mr Carr’s leadership, with comments such as; “I distrust Bob Carr — he has been there too long”, “I am not happy with the way the Carr Government has been going ie. High taxes”, “Anyone other than Carr” and “Carr has lost the plot”.

Current Government policies and the New South Wales economy were of concern for many Liberal supporters, with comments such as; “Bob Carr has stuffed the lot up — transport, health and water”, “The Liberals keep the economy strong with low unemployment”, “I am unsatisfied with Carr’s views towards water and health” and “The ALP are spending money in the wrong places. They should put more money into roads”.

Preferences of supporters of the Greens (ALP — 93.5% cf L-NP — 6.3%), One Nation (ALP — 80.5% cf L-NP — 19.5%) and the Australian Democrats (ALP — 69.5% cf L-NP — 30.5%) favoured the ALP State Government, whilst supporters of Independent Candidates and Other Parties (L-NP — 54.5% cf ALP — 45.5%) favoured the Opposition.

This latest Morgan Poll on New South Wales State Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face among 1,204 electors throughout New South Wales during July 2005. Electors were asked: “If a State election were being held today — which Party would receive your first preference?”

Of all electors surveyed 4.5% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.

For further information:

Gary Morgan

Office (03) 9224 5213

Mobile 0411 129 094

Home (03) 9419 3242

Michele Levine

Office (03) 9224 5215

Mobile 0411 129 093

Home (03) 9817 3066

NSW STATE VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY (%)

PRIMARY VOTE	ALP	L-NP	Aust. Dem.#	The Greens	One Nation#	Ind./ Others

Election March 25, 1995	41.3	43.9	2.9	2.6	n/a	9.3
Election March 27, 1999	42.2	33.7 (8.8)	3.3	3.9	7.5	9.4
Election March 22, 2003	42.6	34.6 (9.7)	0.9	8.3	1.3	12.3

Morgan Poll
February 2004	49.5	36(3)	1.5	6.5	1	5.5
March 2004	44	37.5(3.5)	2	8.5	1	7
April 2004	43.5	37.5(3.5)	1.5	10.5	0.5	6.5
May 2004	42.5	37.5(3)	2	9.5	1	7.5
June 2004	40.5	41(3)	2	8.5	0.5	7.5
July 2004	44	38 (4)	1.5	10	1	5.5
August 2004	41.5	40 (2.5)	2	8.5	0.5	7.5
September 2004	40	41 (3)	1.5	9	0.5	8
October 2004	42	43.5 (4.5)	1.5	7	1	5
November 2004	42.5	40.5 (3.5)	1	8.5	1	6.5
December 2004	36	44.5 (3)	1.5	9	1.5	7.5
January 2005	42.5	41.5 (2.5)	1.5	6.5	1	7
February 2005	41.5	42 (3)	1.5	8	0.5	6.5
March 2005	39.5	43.5 (3)	0.5	9	0.5	7
April 2005	42	40.5 (2.5)	1.5	7.5	1.5	7
May 2005	41	42 (3)	2	7.5	0.5	7
June 2005	42.5	39.5 (2.5)	1	8	0.5	8.5
July 2005	42	39 (4)	1	7	1	10

Note: National Party results are in brackets

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)

	ALP	L-NP

Election March 25, 1995	49	51
Election March 27, 1999	56	44
Election March 22, 2003	56.2^**	43.8^**

MORGAN POLL	Preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote		Preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2003 election
February 2004	59.5	40.5	58	42
March 2004	57	43	55	45
April 2004	57	43	55	45
May 2004	56.5	43.5	54.5	45.5
June 2004	53	47	51.5	48.5
July 2004	56.5	43.5	55	45
August 2004	54	46	52.5	47.5
September 2004	54.5	45.5	51.5	48.5
October 2004	52.5	47.5	50.5	49.5
November 2004	54	46	52.5	47.5
December 2004	48.5	51.5	47.5	52.5
January 2005	53	47	52	48
February 2005	52	48	51.5	48.5
March 2005	51	49	49.5	50.5
April 2005	54	46	52.5	47.5
May 2005	53	47	51	49
June 2005	54.5	45.5	53	47
July 2005	54.5	45.5	53.5	46.5

^Malcolm Mackerras Estimate

** The State Electoral Office of New South Wales has not released a two-party preferred vote from the March 2003 State election.

TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES (%)
	April 2005		May 2005		June 2005		July 2005
MORGAN POLL	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP
Australian Democrats #	69	31	90	10	61	39	69.5	30.5
The Greens	89	11	81	19	88.5	11.5	93.5	6.5
One Nation #	24	76	74	26	54	46	80.5	19.5
Independent/Other	56.5	43.5	58	42	50	50	45.5	54.5

# Results from sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.

Sample: 1,204 electors

Interviewed: July 2005

4.5% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.

Finding No. 3882 is taken from Computer Report No. 2052