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ALP Primary Support Up 3.5% To 42%, And Would Win With Minor Party Preferences
In early August, primary support for the ALP rose 3.5% to 42%, 4.4% above the ALP result at the October 2004 Federal election. Support for the L-NP remained unchanged on 41.5%, which is 4.9% below the L-NP result at the Federal election. If preferences of minor parties were allocated as they were at the 2004 Federal election (ALP — 60.5%, L-NP — 39.5%) the ‘two-party’ preferred vote would be ALP — 52% (up 1.5%), L-NP — 48% (down 1.5%). Had an election been held in early August , the ALP would have won with minor party preferences , the latest Morgan Poll finds. Among the minor parties, support for the Greens was 7.5% (down 0.5%), Australian Democrats 2% (down 0.5%), Family First 2% (up 0.5%), One Nation 1% (down 1%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 4% (down 2%). Gary Morgan says: “Although primary support for the L-NP remained stable on 41.5%, primary support for the ALP (up 3.5% to 42%) has risen at the expense of the minor parties. The increase in support for the ALP can be attributed to their stand against the Government’s proposed Industrial Relations reforms. Had an election been held in early August, the ALP would have won on a ‘two-party’ preferred basis.” During the period: • The State and Territory Governments announced they are prepared to fight the Federal Government in the High Court to stop a hostile takeover of their Industrial Relations systems. They demanded that Minister for Employment and Workplace Relations, Kevin A ndrews, give them a written guarantee that no worker will be worse off under the new system. • Prime Minister John Howard invited State and Territory leaders to a special meeting to discuss Australia 's response to terrorism. The issues to be discussed include counter-terrorism legal frameworks, surface transport security, identity security and more effective prevention of any advocacy of terrorism. • New Nationals leader Mark Vaile said he wants a $2 billion fund established to protect telecommunications services in regional areas before the party will agree to support the full sale of Telstra. Mr Vaile said the fund would be designed to produce $100 million in dividends each year to pay for rural telecommunications. • Prime Minister John Howard said the Federal Government would consider the Nationals' demands for a permanent fund to pay for future upgrades to telecommunications in the bush, and Federal Communications Minister Helen Coonan said the Government will only go ahead with the full sale of Telstra if ‘decent’ services are secured for people in rural and regional Australia . • Prime Minister John Howard made a brief and unannounced visit to Iraq to meet Australian troops and for talks with the Iraqi Government. Mr Howard's visit came after his recent meetings with US President George W Bush in Washington and British Prime Minister Tony Blair in London . • A Senate committee began an inquiry into the Federal Government's handling of Chinese defector Chen Yonglin's application for political asylum. The inquiry, instigated by the Greens with support from Labor and the Democrats, was held against the wishes of the Government. Special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research in which respondents gave their reason for voting was conducted on August 6/7, 2005. Supporters of the L-NP were generally satisfied with the performance of the Government and in particular with John Howard’s leadership, saying: “John Howard is a terrific Prime Minister — Liberals have the best leadership”, “Can’t do any better than John Howard at the moment”, “Howard is a fairly good international diplomat”, “The Liberal party under John Howard’s leadership has kept the Australian economy strong, with good business prospects” and “Interest Rates have never been so low”. Other L-NP supporters questioned the leadership and stability of the Labor Party, with comments such as: “The Opposition is not very organised. The leader is not very impressive”, “The Opposition has no clear agenda”, “I wouldn’t vote Labor because of the mess they are in”, “Labor is up in the air with their policies and seem unstable with their leadership” and “I don’t think the Labor Party has made any progress with Kim Beazley”. ALP Supporters were largely dissatisfied with the L-NP Government and the proposed Industrial Relations changes, saying: “At the moment John Howard is being an absolute moron”, “I am not in favour of the Coalition’s Industrial and Privatisation policies”, “I am not in favour of the Industrial Relations changes by the Liberal Government” and “Industrial Relations laws will affect the rights of workers”. Other ALP supporters were concerned about Australia ’s involvement in Iraq , sith comments such as: “I am dissatisfied with the Liberals current stance on the war in Iraq ”, “I am annoyed with the Liberals being involved in the war on Iraq ” and “We should not be involved in the war in Iraq ”. ALP supporters were typically satisfied with the Labor Party and its policies, saying: “I prefer Labor Party policies to that of the Coalition”, “They have better policies regarding employment and development issues” , “I like their policies — money goes to Government schools not private” and “I think it’s the only party the people have got any chance with. Their policies have been right in the past”. On the question of who the electorate thinks will win the next Federal election, the L-NP leads the ALP by 37%. Now 61.5% (unchanged since mid July) of electors think the L-NP will win the Federal election while 24.5% (down 1.5%) think the ALP will win (14% can’t say). This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekend of July 30/31 & August 6/7, 2005, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,814 electors. Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today - which party would receive your first preference?” Of all electors surveyed, 4% (down 0.5%) did not name a party.
For further information:
THINK WILL WIN Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"
FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)
Morgan Poll sampling tolerance: The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution 4% (down 0.5%) did not name a party. View Federal Voting Intention Trend
Finding No. 3885 is taken from Computer Report No. 2054 |
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