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The most accurate poll in the New Zealand 2005 General Election was the 3 News TNS Poll conducted September 8-14. Their last poll showed Labour ahead of National (40.5% cf 38.7%) - a Labour lead of 1.8%. The 3 News TNS Poll had an average error for the major parties of 0.5% and of 0.69% for all parties.

The Morgan Poll conducted each night during September 3-13 was the most accurate in predicting the small margin between the two major parties (a Labour lead of 1.5%), however it overestimated the vote for the minor parties, resulting in an average error for both the major parties (2.35%) and for all parties (1.37%) - the telephone Morgan Poll recorded the vote for non-major parties as 24.5%, the actual vote was 19.8%.

Like the Morgan Poll and the 3 News TNS Poll, the Herald-DigiPoll also predicted a Labour lead, however they were inaccurate in predicting the margin between the two major parties (Labour — 44.6%, National — 37.4% (a large Labour lead of 7.2%).

The One News/Colmar Brunton Poll (National — 44%, Labour — 38%) and the Fairfax New Zealand ACNielsen Poll (National — 43%, Labour — 37%) both inaccurately predicted the National Party would obtain a higher proportion of the Party Vote than the Labour Party.

 

For further information:

 

Gary Morgan :      Office (03) 9224 5213  Mobile 0411 129 094  Home (03) 9419 3242

Michele Levine :   Office (03) 9224 5215  Mobile 0411 129 093  Home (03) 9817 3066

NEW ZEALAND VOTING INTENTION

Party Vote Predictions
	National Election	Morgan Poll		Herald-DigiPoll		One News/Colmar Brunton Poll		3 News TNS		Fairfax New Zealand ACNielsen Poll
	Sept 17, 2005	Sept 3-13, 2005		Sept 9-14, 2005		Sept 12-14, 2005		Sept 8-14, 2005		Sept 13, 2005
Sample Size		1084		1000		996		901		992
	Result*	%	error	%	error	%	error	%	error	%	error
Labour	41.1	38.5	-2.6	44.6	3.5	38	-3.1	40.5	-0.6	37	-4.1
National	39.1	37	-2.1	37.4	-1.7	44	4.9	38.7	-0.4	43	3.9
New Zealand First	5.72	6.5	0.78	4.5	-1.22	6	0.28	6.8	1.08	7	1.28
The Green Party	5.3	7.5	2.2	4.6	-0.7	5	-0.3	6.9	1.6	6	0.7
ACT New Zealand	1.51	3	1.49	1.3	-0.21	1.9	0.39	0.9	-0.61	1	-0.51
United Future New Zealand	2.67	2.5	-0.17	2.6	-0.07	2.5	-0.17	3	0.33	3	0.33
Maori party	2.12	1.5	-0.62	2.3	0.18	1.7	-0.42	1.4	-0.72	1	-1.12
Jim Anderton’s Progressive Alliance	1.16	0.5	-0.66	1.1	-0.06	0.6	-0.56	0.4	-0.76	1	-0.16
Other	1.32	3	1.68	1.1	-0.22	1.1	-0.22	1.4	0.08	1	-0.32
Labour lead over National	2	1.5	-0.5	7.2	5.2	-6	-8	1.8	-0.2	-6	-8
Av. error on major parties (Labour, National)			2.35		2.6		4		0.50		4
Av. error on all parties			1.37		0.87		1.15		0.69		1.38

* Official Count Results - October 1, 2005

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