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3 News TNS Poll Most Accurate In New Zealand - Morgan Poll Accurately Predicted Small Lead To NZ Labour Party, But Overestimated Minor Parties
The most accurate poll in the New Zealand 2005 General Election was the 3 News TNS Poll conducted September 8-14. Their last poll showed Labour ahead of National (40.5% cf 38.7%) - a Labour lead of 1.8%. The 3 News TNS Poll had an average error for the major parties of 0.5% and of 0.69% for all parties. The Morgan Poll conducted each night during September 3-13 was the most accurate in predicting the small margin between the two major parties (a Labour lead of 1.5%), however it overestimated the vote for the minor parties, resulting in an average error for both the major parties (2.35%) and for all parties (1.37%) - the telephone Morgan Poll recorded the vote for non-major parties as 24.5%, the actual vote was 19.8%. Like the Morgan Poll and the 3 News TNS Poll, the Herald-DigiPoll also predicted a Labour lead, however they were inaccurate in predicting the margin between the two major parties (Labour — 44.6%, National — 37.4% (a large Labour lead of 7.2%). The One News/Colmar Brunton Poll (National — 44%, Labour — 38%) and the Fairfax New Zealand ACNielsen Poll (National — 43%, Labour — 37%) both inaccurately predicted the National Party would obtain a higher proportion of the Party Vote than the Labour Party.
NEW ZEALAND VOTING INTENTION
* Official Count Results - October 1, 2005 |
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