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COMPANY ONLINE STORE PRODUCTS SERVICES INDUSTRIES MORGAN POLL PAPERS PRESS RELEASES CONSUMER CONFIDENCE READERSHIP UNEMPLOYMENT THE REACTOR 
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In Wake Of Latham Diaries L-NP Recovers Ground Lost After Telstra Debacle. In A Week: L-NP Primary Support Up 4.5% To 44%, 'Two-Party' Preferred L-NP Vote At 52.5%, ALP Primary Support Fell 7% To 34.5%.
The first Morgan Poll taken since details of the Latham Diaries were released (Surveyed last weekend - September 17/18, 2005) shows L-NP well in front at 44% (up 4.5% in a week) and ALP support plunging 7% to 34.5%. With preferences of minor parties allocated as they were at the 2004 Federal Election (ALP — 60.5%, L-NP — 39.5%) the ‘two-party’ preferred vote is L-NP — 52.5%, ALP — 47.5%. Had an election been held in mid-September the L-NP would have won, the latest Morgan Poll finds. Gary Morgan says: “The Coalition have benefited greatly from the publicity surrounding the release of the Latham Diaries, with a 4.5% increase in primary support to 44%. For the Labor Party, the timing of the release of Mark Latham’s Diaries could not have been worse. The criticisms of the Labor Party and Opposition Leader Kim Beazley have reversed the political advantage the ALP gained from the Government’s failure to disclose what it knew about the Telstra profit warning. “Tomorrow Roy Morgan Research will release a Special Telephone Morgan Poll which shows only a third of Australians think Latham should have published his diaries and more Australians than not think the diaries will be damaging to the Labor Party, and in particular, to Kim Beazley.” The Morgan Poll was conducted over the last two weekends (September 10/11 & 17/18, 2005) and showed dramatic changes in Voting Intention in response to major events. In the week prior to the September 10/11 Morgan Poll the following occurred; • Telstra announced a profit warning for the current fiscal year. • The ALP Opposition strongly criticised Prime Minister John Howard for continuing to push for the sale of Telstra after it was revealed the Government (a 51.8% Telstra shareholder) had prior knowledge of Telstra’s announced profit downgrade. Mr Howard responded that it would have been illegal for the Government to disclose what it knew about the state of the telecommunications company and the responsibilities for disclosure were with Telstra. • Senator Barnaby Joyce advised he had ‘second thoughts’ on passing the Telstra Legislation. • The Prime Minister ruled out both a cut to the excise on petrol and a reduction to the GST on petrol. The Morgan Poll taken following these events (September 10/11) showed the two party preferred vote would be ALP — 53%, L-NP — 47%. However, in the week following this swing to the Labor Party; • News Limited’s The Australian published extracts from the Latham Diaries, which criticised the culture within the Labor Party and dismissed the Party as "irreparably broken". • ABC TV’s Enough Rope and Lateline programs aired interviews with Mark Latham discussing the controversial ‘Latham Diaries’. Mr Latham accused Mr Beazley of "waging a six-year campaign of smear and innuendo" against him. • The Coalition-dominated Senate Committee investigating the Telstra Legislation recommended the Senate pass the bills authorising the sale of the telecommunications company. • The National Farmers Federation (NFF) threw its support behind the Government's plan for the full sale of Telstra. • The Senate passed legislation authorising the full sale of Telstra, after key Nationals Senator Barnaby Joyce voted with the Federal Government. The Morgan Poll taken last weekend (September 17/18) saw the swing against the L-NP reversed, with the two party preferred vote at L-NP — 52.5% (up 5.5 % in a week), ALP — 47.5% (down 5.5%). In the same week, there were major shifts in support for minor parties. Support for the Greens was 10% (up 3%), Australian Democrats 2.5% (up 1%), Family First 2% (down 1%), One Nation 1.5% (up 1%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 5.5% (down 1.5%). On the question of who the electorate thinks will win the next Federal election, the L-NP leads the ALP by 44.5%. Now 66% (up 5.5%) of electors think the L-NP will win the Federal election while 21.5% (down 5.5%) think the ALP will win (12.5% can’t say). This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekend of September 17/18, 2005, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,018 electors. Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today - which party would receive your first preference?” Of all electors surveyed, 4.5% (down 0.5%) did not name a party. For further information:
THINK WILL WIN Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"
FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)
Morgan Poll sampling tolerance: The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution 4.5% (down 0.5%) did not name a party. View Federal Voting Intention Trend
Finding No. 3899 is taken from Computer Report No. 2063 |
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