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Following over a week of publicity and controversy over the Latham Diaries and a seven point swing away from the ALP, the Australian electorate is divided on whether or not the diaries should have been published.

Forty percent of Australians believe Mark Latham should have published his diaries, 49% believe he should not have published them and 11% are undecided.

When asked if they believe Mark Latham’s diaries will be damaging to the Labor Party, the majority of Australians (53%) think they will be damaging, with 36% thinking they will not be damaging and 11% undecided. A large proportion of respondents (48%) also believe the Latham Diaries will be damaging to Kim Beazley, whilst 36% believe they will not be damaging to him, and 16% are unable to say.

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted on September 21/22 with an Australia-wide cross-section of 607 men and women aged 18 and over.

Gary Morgan says:

“More Australians than not believe Mark Latham’s diaries will be damaging to the Labor Party and to Opposition Leader Kim Beazley. However the damage is already done. The Morgan Poll released yesterday showed a large swing (7%) away from the Labor Party in the week following the release of the Latham Diaries. This neutralized the damage to the L-NP of the Telstra debacle.”

Preferred Prime Minister

When electors were asked who they preferred as Prime Minister nearly twice as many electors said Mr Howard (59%) would make a better Prime Minister than said Mr Beazley (30%). When the Morgan Poll last asked this question in January 2005, 57% of electors said Mr Howard would make the better Prime Minister, while 33% named Mr Beazley.

Approval of Leaders

Approval of the way Mr Howard is handling his job as Prime Minister has fallen to 54% (down 5%), while 40% disapprove (up 6%) and 6% can’t say.

Approval of Mr Beazley’s performance is 47% (up 12% since 2001 when Mr Beazley was last Opposition Leader), 42% (down 12% since 2001) disapprove and 11% (unchanged) are unable to say.

Preferred Leader of L-NP and ALP

John Howard is the preferred Leader of the L-NP by 37% of all electors and 60% of L-NP supporters. Mr Howard’s closest rival for the position, Peter Costello, was preferred by 18% of all electors, but just 15% of L-NP supporters.

Kim Beazley is the preferred ALP Leader by 30% of all electors and 42% of ALP supporters. Julia Gillard is Mr Beazley’s closest rival for the position (preferred by 20% of all electors and 19% of ALP supporters) followed closely by Kevin Rudd who was preferred by 19% of all electors and 14% of ALP supporters.

When those surveyed on September 21/22 were asked if they had any comments or reasons why they would prefer John Howard as the Leader of the Coalition for the next Federal election, respondents gave comments such as: “John Howard handles himself on the world stage admirably”, “I believe he has leadership qualities, makes decisions on the information received at the time and makes decisions to improve Australia as a whole”, “We have got to chose a man who is honest with integrity and as far as I’m concerned he’s the one”, “Because they’re going to put up bloody Costello — no way would I want him”, “I am a Howard supporter. I admire his tenacity and consummate political skill” and “John Howard is a good leader — he has gained respect from other leaders over the years”.

Of those who preferred Peter Costello as Leader of the L-NP, many commented: “He has done a wonderful job for the economy. He could make it on the world stage and be a leader”, “Because he is a Republican”, “I think he is a very clever man and his morals and ideals are very good. I think he would lead Australia very, very well” and “I think Mr Howard probably won’t be staying on — he is coming to the end of his term and I think Peter Costello would be good”.

Of those respondents who preferred Kim Beazley as the Labor Leader for the next Federal Election many responded with comments such as: “I think he is pretty honest and upfront with the issues and he has handled himself well with the debacle with Mark Latham”, “I think he’s got a bit of balls about him. He seems to have an understanding of the situation in the country determining our economy”, “He’s been in long enough — he should be fairly good at his job by now”, “I feel that Mr Beazley will overturn this Industrial Relations Bill and leave things as they are today”, “Labor doesn’t have too many bright stars on the horizon, and he shines” and “He seems to be less interested in his own political gain and more interested in trying to unify a party”.

Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd are perceived very differently by the electorate.

Respondents who preferred Julia Gillard as leader of the ALP gave reasons such as: “She has a fresh face — not a recycled politician. She has good leadership qualities”, “She seems more geared towards positive action. Beazley is a counter puncher and doesn’t come up with any new policies — he’s very negative”, “They need to get out of the boys club mentality. She presents well and will bring new ideas” and “The Labor Party could use a woman at the helm for a change. I like her spirit — she seems to tell it like it is”.

Of those who preferred Kevin Rudd to lead the Labor Party for the next Federal Election, many commented: “He seems to have his finger on the pulse and never baulks at anything. He always has his answers well formulated”, “Highly intelligent sensible man with a good political attitude”, “When he is asked questions he comes up with honest answers. He does not try to hide anything — if he doesn’t know something he will endeavour to find out” and “From his interviews he seems to have good leadership qualities”.

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted on the evenings of September 21/22, 2005, with an Australia-wide sample of 607 respondents aged 18 and over (564 electors).

For further information:

Gary Morgan : Office (03) 9224 5213 Mobile 0411 129 094 Home (03) 9419 3242
Michele Levine : Office (03) 9224 5215 Mobile 0411 129 093 Home (03) 9817 3066

The Latham Diaries — Should they have been published or not?
Respondents were asked: “In your opinion, should Mark Latham have published his diaries or not?”

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Will the Latham Diaries be damaging to the Labor Party?
Respondents were asked: “Based on what you have read and heard about Mark Latham’s diaries, do you believe they will be damaging to the Labor Party or not?”

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Will the Latham Diaries be damaging to Kim Beazley?
Respondents were then asked: “Do you believe Mark Latham’s diaries will be damaging to Kim Beazley or not?”  

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Preferred Prime Minister — Mr Howard or Mr Beazley?
Respondents were asked: “Thinking of Mr Howard and Mr Beazley. In your opinion, who would make a better Prime Minister — Mr Howard or Mr Beazley?”

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mr Howard is handling his job as Prime Minister?
Respondents were asked: “Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mr Howard is handling his job as Prime Minister?”

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mr Beazley is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition?
Respondents were asked: “Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mr Beazley is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition?”

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Preferred Coalition Leader
Respondents were asked: “If you were a Liberal of National Party voter and helping to choose the Coalition leader for the next Federal election, who would you prefer?”

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution
* Less than 0.5%

Preferred Labor Leader
Respondents were asked: “If you were a Labor Party voter and helping to choose the Labor leader for the next Federal election, who would you prefer?”

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

The above tables show Australians’ attitudes towards whether or not Mark Latham should have published his diaries, Preferred Prime Minister, Approval of Leaders and Preferred Leaders analysed by Federal Voting Intention, Sex and Age.

The complete analysis of results by demographics and regions is available on subscription.

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the
ONLY Australian or New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand
has this qualification.

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