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September Quarter Unemployment Steady At 7.1%

Finding No. 3905 - October 01, 2005

The Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate remained steady on 7.1% in the September 2005 Quarter, unchanged from the June 2005 Quarter and also unchanged from this time last year (both also 7.1%).

Although the unemployment rate was stable, there was a decrease in both the number of employed Australians and the number of Australians looking for work. The number of Australians who are now part of the workforce is down 74,000 since the June Quarter to 10,220,000.

The fall in the number of employed Australians (down 66,000 to 9,494,000 since the June Quarter) was driven by a decrease in part-time employment. In the September Quarter, the number of Australians working part-time fell 118,000 to 2,994,000, while the number of Australians working full-time rose 52,000 to 6,500,000 in the same period.

An estimated 726,000 Australians were looking for work in the September 2005 Quarter - 8,000 lower than in the June 2005 Quarter. The number of Australians seeking full-time employment in the September Quarter was 419,000 (up 26,000 since June) while 307,000 Australians (down 34,000) were seeking part-time work.

Unemployment in regional and rural areas (8.3%, down 0.3%) is still much higher than in capital cities (6.4%, up 0.1%).

South Australia (6.2%) had the lowest estimated unemployment for the September Quarter, followed by Victoria and New South Wales (6.8% each), Western Australia (7.5%), Queensland (7.9%) and Tasmania (9.6%).

For the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate during the September Quarter, 14,575 Australians aged 14 and over were interviewed face-to-face on the weekends of July to September, 2005.

 

For further information:

Gary Morgan

Office (03) 9224 5213

Mobile 0411 129 094

Home (03) 9419 3242

Michele Levine

Office (03) 9224 5215

Mobile 0411 129 093

Home (03) 9817 3066

 

The Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate is obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section by face-to-face interviews. An unemployed person is classified as part of the labour force if they are looking for work, no matter when. The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of monthly unemployment estimates in Australia .

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are obtained by mostly telephone interviews. Households selected for the ABS Survey are interviewed each month for eight months, with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each month. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.

The ABS classifies an unemployed person as part of the labour force only if, when surveyed, they have been actively looking for work in the four weeks up to the end of the reference week and if they were available for work in the reference week.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted.

For these reasons the Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are different from the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate.

Gary Morgan's concerns regarding the ABS Unemployment estimate is clearly outlined in his letter to the Australian Financial Review, which was not published!

/news/papers/2 0 03/20030801/

 

Roy Morgan Research vs ABS Unemployment Estimates

The Roy Morgan Unemployment Estimates The ABS Unemployment Estimates
 % of work force unemployed
  Total looking
For work
('000)
% of
Work force
Unemployed
Total Looking
For Work*
('000)
Original Adjusted*
2000  
January 983   10.6   655   7.4   6.9  
February 853   9.2   644   7.5   6.7  
March 868 (901) ** 9.4 (9.7) ** 700 (666) ** 7.3 (7.4) ** 6.9 (6.8) **
April 926   10.1   659   6.8   6.8  
May 912   9.8   643   6.7   6.7  
June 826 (888) ** 8.9 (9.6) ** 609 (637) ** 6.3 (6.6) ** 6.6 (6.7) **
July 870   9.3   610   5.9   6.3  
August 856   9.1   624   6.2   6.4  
September 869 (865) ** 9.4 (9.3) ** 614 (616) ** 6.4 (6.2) ** 6.3 (6.3) **
October 837   9.0   615   6.0   6.3  
November 909   9.6   637   6.2   6.6  
December 953 (900) ** 10.2 (9.6) ** 643 (632) ** 6.5 (6.2) ** 6.6 (6.5) **
2001  
January 974   10.4   647   7.2   6.6  
February 967   10.4   673   7.6   6.9  
March 989 (977) ** 10.6 (10.5)** 662 (661) ** 7.2 (7.3) ** 6.8 (6.8) **

April

970   10.2   669   6.8   6.8  

May

948   10.2   676   6.9   6.9  

June

908

(942)**

9.7

(10.0)**

681 (675) ** 6.7 (6.8) ** 6.9 (6.9) **

July

837   8.8   618   6.3   6.3  

August

918   9.7   644   6.6   6.6  

September

1006

(920) **

10.7

(9.7) **

672 (645) ** 6.8 (6.6) ** 6.7 (6.5) **
October 914   9.6   697   6.7   7.1  
November 889   9.1   661   6.4   6.7  
December 1003 (935) ** 10.5 (9.8) ** 665 (674) ** 6.6 (6.6) ** 6.7 (6.8) **
2002  
January 1075   10.9   693   7.4   7.0  
February 926   9.4   653   7.3   6.6  
March 841 (947) ** 8.9 (9.8)** 622 (656) ** 6.7 (7.1) ** 6.3 (6.6) **
April 812   8.4   622   6.4   6.3  
May 744   7.8   622   6.3   6.3  
June 794 (783) ** 8.3 (8.2)** 644 (629) ** 6.3 (6.3) ** 6.5 (6.4) **
July 750   7.6   609   5.6   6.2  
August 690   7.3   622   6.0   6.2  
September 703 (715) ** 7.3 (7.4)** 617 (616) ** 5.9 (6.2) ** 6.2 (6.2) **
October 748   7.8   599   5.7   6.0  
November 716   7.4   617   5.8   6.1  
December 730 (731) ** 7.7 (7.7) ** 628 (615) ** 6.1 (5.9) ** 6.2 (6.1) **
2003  
January 673   7.0   620   6.5   6.1  
February 808   8.4   610   6.7   6.0  
March 769 (750)** 8.0 (7.8)** 626 (619)** 6.5 (6.6)** 6.2 (6.1)**
April 744   7.7   623   6.2   6.1  
May 791   8.2   613   6.1   6.0  
June 764 (766)** 8.0 (8.0)** 620 (619)** 5.9 (6.1)** 6.1 (6.1)**
July 795   8.1   621   5.6   6.2  
August 774   8.1   594   5.6   5.9  
September 761 (776)** 7.8 (8.0)** 590 (602)** 5.8 (5.7)** 5.8 (6.0)**
October 711   7.1   577   5.4   5.7  
November 769   7.8   573   5.3   5.6  
December 863 (781)** 8.8 (7.9)** 575 (575)** 5.6 (5.4)** 5.6 (5.6)**
2004                    
January 973   9.5   584   6.2   5.8  
February 832   8.4   595   6.6   5.9  
March 892 (899)** 8.8 (8.9)** 574 (584)** 5.9 (6.2)** 5.6 (5.8)**
April 846   8.4   574   5.7   5.6  
May 786   7.9   561   5.5   5.5  
June 826 (819)** 8.5 (8.3)** 575 (570)** 5.5 (5.6)** 5.6 (5.6)**
July 757   7.4   582   5.2   5.7  
August 679   6.9   579   5.4   5.7  
September 698 (711)** 7.1 (7.1)** 572 (578)** 5.5 (5.4)** 5.6 (5.7)**
October 694   6.9   544   5.0   5.3  
November 632   6.4   536   4.9   5.2  
December 688 (671)** 6.8 (6.7)** 527 (536)** 5.0 (5.0)** 5.1 (5.2)**
2005                    
January 775   7.6   532   5.6   5.1  
February 715   7.0   533   5.7   5.1  
March 753 (748)** 7.5 (7.4)** 540 (535)** 5.4 (5.6)** 5.2 (5.1)**
April 797   7.7   540   5.2   5.1  
May 737   7.2   542   5.2   5.1  
June 669 (734)** 6.5 (7.1)** 527 (536)** 4.9 (5.1)** 5.0 (5.1)**
July 783   7.6   525   4.6   5.0  
August 715   7.0   530   4.8   5.0  
September 681 (726)** 6.7 (7.1)**            
* Seasonally Adjusted figures ** Average calculated for previous three months

Roy Morgan Employment Estimate - detailed

 

 

  Total Workforce
('000)
Total employed
('000)
Total looking
for work
('000)
% of workforce
Unemployed
2000  
January 9312   8329   983   10.6  
February 9270   8417   853   9.2  
March 9227 (9269) ** 8359 (8368) ** 868 (901) ** 9.4 (9.7) **
April 9165   8239   926   10.1  
May 9266   8354   912   9.8  
June 9277 (9236) ** 8451 (8348) ** 826 (888) ** 8.9 (9.6) **
July 9341   8471   870   9.3  
August 9454   8598   856   9.1  
September 9211 (9334) ** 8342 (8470) ** 869 (865) ** 9.4 (9.3) **
October 9251   8414   837   9.0  
November 9439   8530   909   9.6  
December 9314 (9334) ** 8361 (8434) ** 953 (900) ** 10.2 (9.6) **
2001  
January 9408   8434   974   10.4  
February 9280   8313   967   10.4  
March 9320 (9336) ** 8331 (9336) ** 989 (977) ** 10.6 (10.5) **
April 9466   8496   970   10.2  
May 9323   8375   948   10.2  
June 9344 (9377) ** 8436 (8435) ** 908 (942) ** 9.7 (10.0) **
July 9548   8711   837   8.8  
August 9466   8548   918   9.7  
September 9414 (9475) ** 8408 (8555) ** 1006 (920) ** 10.7 (9.7) **
October 9438   8524   914   9.6  
November 9768   8879   889   9.1  
December 9529 (9578) ** 8526 (8643) ** 1003 (935) ** 10.5 (9.8) **
2002  
January 9819   8744   1075   10.9  
February 9801   8875   926   9.4  
March 9470 (9696) ** 8629 (8749) ** 841 (947) ** 8.9 (9.8) **
April 9692   8880   812   8.4  
May 9557   8813   744   7.8  
June 9563 (9604) ** 8769 (8820) ** 794 (783) ** 8.3 (8.2) **
July 9842   9092   750   7.6  
August 9484   8794   690   7.3  
September 9637 (9654) ** 8934 (8939) ** 703 (715) ** 7.3 (7.4) **
October 9614   8867   748   7.8  
November 9623   8907   716   7.4  
December 9429 (9555) ** 8699 (8824) ** 730 (731) ** 7.7 (7.7) **
2003  
January 9637   8964   673   7.0  
February 9625   8817   808   8.4  
March 9565 (9609)** 8796 (8859)** 769 (750)** 8.0 (7.8)**
April 9681   8936   744   7.7  
May 9606   8815   791   8.2  
June 9551 (9612)** 8787 (8846)** 764 (766)** 8.0 (8.0)**
July 9847   9052   795   8.1  
August 9582   8808   774   8.1  
September 9729 (9719)** 8968 (8943)** 761 (776)** 7.8 (8.0)**
October 9972   9261   711   7.1  
November 9870   9100   769   7.8  
December 9799 (9880)** 8936 (9099)** 863 (781)** 8.8 (7.9)**
2004                
January 10212   9240   973   9.5  
February 9939   9108   832   8.4  
March 10089 (10080)** 9197 (9181)** 892 (899)** 8.8 (8.9)**
April 10040   9194   846   8.4  
May 9954   9167   786   7.9  
June 9701 (9898)** 8875 (9079)** 826 (819)** 8.5 (8.3)**
July 10219   9463   757   7.4  
August 9896   9217   679   6.9  
September 9791 (9969)** 9094 (9258)** 698 (711)** 7.1 (7.1)**
October 10027   9334   694   6.9  
November 9936   9304   632   6.4  
December 10120 (10028)** 9432 (9356)** 688 (671)** 6.8 (6.7)**
2005                
January 10162   9387   775   7.6  
February 10200   9485   715   7.0  
March 10086 (10149)** 9333 (9402)** 753 (748)** 7.5 (7.4)**
April 10382   9586   797   7.7  
May 10216   9478   737   7.2  
June 10288 (10294)** 9620 (9560)** 669 (734)** 6.5 (7.1)**
July 10367   9584   783   7.6  
August 10190   9476   715   7.0  
September 10103 (10220)** 9423 (9494)** 681 (726)** 6.7 (7.1)**
** Average calculated for previous three months
 

ABS Employment Estimates - detailed

 

  % of workforce unemployed
  Total workforce*
('000)
Total employed*
('000)
Total Looking
for work*
('000)
Original Adjusted*
2000  
January 9558   8903   655   7.4   6.9  
February 9606   8962   644   7.5   6.7  
March 9650 (9605) ** 8950 (8938) ** 700 (666)** 7.3 (7.4) ** 6.9 (6.8)**
April 9664   9005   659   6.8   6.8  
May 9659   9017   643   6.7   6.7  
June 9665 (9663) ** 9056 (9026) ** 609 (637)** 6.3 (6.6) ** 6.6 (6.7) **
July 9728   9118   610   5.9   6.3  
August 9766   9142   624   6.2   6.4  
September 9725 (9740) ** 9111 (9124) ** 614 (616)** 6.4 (6.2) ** 6.3 (6.3) **
October 9722   9106   615   6.0   6.3  
November 9684   9047   637   6.2   6.6  
December 9730 (9712) ** 9087 (9080) ** 643 (632)** 6.5 (6.2) ** 6.6 (6.5) **
2001  
January 9730   9083   647   7.2   6.6  
February 9773   9099   673   7.6   6.9  
March 9752 (9752) ** 9090 (9091) ** 662 (661)** 7.2 (7.3) ** 6.5 (6.7) **
April 9800   9140   671   6.8   6.8  
May 9818   9152   676   6.9   6.9  
June 9830 (9816) ** 9149 (9147) ** 681 (676)** 6.7 (6.8) ** 6.9 (6.9) **
July 9809   9191   618   6.3   6.3  
August 9768   9124   644   6.6   6.6  
September 9928 (9835) ** 9255 (9190) ** 672 (672)** 6.8 (6.6) ** 6.7 (6.5) **
October 9880   9183   697   6.7   7.1  
November 9848   9187   661   6.4   6.7  
December 9864 (9864) ** 9199 (9189) ** 665 (674)** 6.6 (6.6) ** 6.7 (6.8) **
2002  
January 9955   9263   693   7.4   7.0  
February 9936   9283   653   7.3   6.6  
March 9972 (9939) ** 9304 (9283) ** 622 (656)** 6.7 (7.1) ** 6.3 (6.6) **
April 9882   9261   621   6.4   6.3  
May 9928   9305   622   6.3   6.3  
June 9962 (9924) ** 9318 (9294) ** 643 (628)** 6.3 (7.1) ** 6.5 (6.4) **
July 9898   9289   609   5.6   6.2  
August 10000   9378   622   6.0   6.2  
September 9964 (9954) ** 9347 (9338) ** 617 (616)** 6.2 (5.9) ** 6.2 (6.2) **
October 9962   9363   599   5.7   6.0  
November 10040   9424   617   5.8   6.1  
December 10104 (10035) ** 9476 (9421)** 628 (615) ** 6.1 (5.9) ** 6.2 (6.1) **
2003  
January 10196   9576   620   6.5   6.1  
February 10173   9564   610   6.7   6.0  
March 10146 (10172)** 9521 (9554)** 626 (619)** 6.5 (6.6)** 6.2 (6.1)**
April 10129   9506   623   6.2   6.1  
May 10148   9535   613   6.1   6.0  
June 10128 (10135)** 9508 (9516)** 620 (619)** 5.9 (6.1)** 6.1 (6.1)**
July 10102   9481   621   5.6   6.2  
August 10129   9535   594   5.6   5.9  
September 10144 (10125)** 9555 (9524)** 590 (602)** 5.8 (5.7)** 5.8 (6.0)**
October 10190   9613   577   5.4   5.7  
November 10209   9637   573   5.3   5.6  
December 10241 (10213)** 9666 (9639)** 575 (575)** 5.6 (5.4)** 5.6 (5.6)**
2004                    
January 10156   9571   584   6.2   5.8  
February 10168   9573   595   6.6   5.9  
March 10211 (10178)** 9637 (9594)** 574 (584)** 5.9 (6.2)** 5.6 (5.8)**
April 10271   9696   574   5.7   5.6  
May 10216   9655   561   5.5   5.5  
June 10221 (10236)** 9646 (9666)** 575 (570)** 5.5 (5.6)** 5.6 (5.6)**
July 10244   9662   582   5.2   5.7  
August 10233   9654   579   5.4   5.7  
September 10290 (10256)** 9717 (9678)** 572 (578)** 5.5 (5.4)** 5.6 (5.7)**
October 10312   9768   544   5.0   5.3  
November 10329   9793   536   4.9   5.2  
December 10349 (10330)** 9822 (9794)** 527 (536)** 5.0 (5.0)** 5.1 (5.2)**
2005                    
January 10402   9870   532   5.6   5.1  
February 10422   9890   533   5.7   5.1  
March 10488 (10437)** 9948 (9903)** 540 (535)** 5.4 (5.6)** 5.2 (5.1)**
April 10508   9968   540   5.2   5.1  
May 10524   9982   542   5.2   5.1  
June 10550 (10527)** 10023 (9991)** 527 (536)** 4.9 (5.1)** 5.0 (5.1)**
July 10560   10035   525   4.6   5.0  
August 10597   10067   530   4.8   5.0  
* Seasonally Adjusted figures ** Average calculated for previous three months

 

 


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