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Opinions Unchanged After Massive Publicity and Debate On Industrial Relations Reforms - Only 10% Say They'll Be Better Off

Finding No. 3909 - October 18, 2005

The majority of Australians (80%) have heard about the Federal Government’s proposed Industrial Relations reforms, up only 1% since July, despite the continued massive publicity surrounding the proposed changes. Twenty percent of Australians say they have not heard about them, according to a special telephone Morgan Poll, conducted late last week and nearly two weeks after John Howard’s launch. N early half (49%) of Australians disagree with the proposed Industrial Relations reforms, only 17% saying they agree, and 14% unable to say.

The survey was conducted to assess whether public opinion had changed since the previous Morgan Poll was conducted in July.

Only 10% of Australians (unchanged since July, 2005) believe they and their families will be better off under the proposed Industrial Relations reforms, whilst 39% think they will not be better off and 31% are unsure (20% had not heard of the proposed reforms).

Union members were more likely than Non-Union members to disagree with the proposed Industrial Relations reforms (63% cf 47%) and less likely to believe that the Industrial Relations proposals would be a good thing for Australia (19% cf 31%).

Gary Morgan says:

“Despite the mass of publicity, debate, and advertising by the Federal Government and the Unions, the opinions of Australians have barely changed since the last Morgan Poll on the Industrial Relations reforms in July of this year. In fact, a slightly higher proportion of Australians now disagree with the Industrial Relations reforms (49%) than disagreed in July (47%). The percentage of Australians who agree with the reforms (17%) remains unchanged since the previous survey.”

Proposed Reforms

The Federal Government has proposed that unfair dismissal laws be abolished for employers with one hundred staff or less. Australians are overwhelmingly against this proposal, with 66% (down 4% since July, 2005) saying they disagree, compared with 26% of Australians who agree with the proposal and 8% who couldn’t say,

As part of the Industrial Relations reforms the Federal Government has proposed extending the probationary period for new employees from 3 to 6 months. The majority of Australians (54% - up 7% since July) disagree with this proposal while 41% (down 2%) agree. Five percent couldn’t say.

A majority of Australians (55% - unchanged) agree with the Government’s proposal that employees be able to cash in two weeks of their annual leave. Forty percent of Australians disagree with this proposal and 5% were unable to say.

The 20% of Australians who had not heard of the Industrial Relations reforms initially, were asked again if they agreed or disagreed with the reforms. The response was divided, with 6% disagreeing with the reforms, 6% agreeing and 8% unable to say.

When asked if, overall, they thought the Industrial Relations reforms would be a good or bad thing for Australia , 50% of Australians believe that they would be a bad thing, compared to 29% who believe they would be a good thing. Twenty-one percent of respondents were unable to say.

Those surveyed on October 12/13, 2005 were asked if they had any comments or reasons why they disagree with the proposed Industrial Relations reforms. Many respondents thought the Howard Government had abandoned the workers and were concerned about workers’ rights, with common responses being:

“John Howard does not have the worker’s benefits and interests at heart”, “The industrial revolution happened for a reason — to give workers better working conditions. Not all workers have that ability to fight for their rights”, “I believe they are throwing Australian workers to the wolves. The Australian worker will be seriously disadvantaged. They will be exploited even more than they are now”, “How would you go? Still a worker, you have to negotiate for your time off, your sick pay, your holiday pay. You have to haggle and fight your boss for all of those things. Not happy”, “The current Government is trying to put the battler into a weaker position. Little Johnny just wants more power” and “They are taking away the right of the employee”.

Other respondents commented that the shift in power to the employer would place workers in a position where they could be taken advantage of, saying:

“I think workers will be disadvantaged by the changes, making them more vulnerable”, “I think everyone needs protection. Employers are definitely going to try to screw the workers”, “It’s unfair in the long run. It gives employers too much power”, “The everyday workers will be worse off and employers will have too much control” and “I am concerned about the intimidation of workers — deregulation of workers rights”.

Others who disagree with the proposed Industrial Relations reforms mentioned job security as a reason, with comments such as:

“The average worker won’t have a say in things. Job security won’t be what they say it will be”, “It seems like people can be dismissed for inadequate reasons”, “From what I have seen there is too much casual work and not enough permanent jobs — there is no job security any more — this will make it worse!”, “I think it is providing more room for employers to dismiss employees for minor reasons” and “It makes it difficult for a new generation to find secure jobs”.

Some respondents were concerned about the ability of employees to negotiate with their employer, saying:

“Not everybody has the capacity to negotiate with their employer”, “It will disadvantage the people who can’t argue their case”, “It is one thing for a professional or somebody in a white collar to negotiate a contract, but a blue collar worker may not have the skills to do so”, “It assumes that things are equal — and they’re not. The workers and the bosses don’t have equal rights or equal bargaining power in negotiations” and “They are getting rid of leave loading. People who are not savvy at negotiating will miss out on their entitlements”.

Of those who agree with the Industrial Relations reforms, many believe they will benefit Australian employers — particularly small business employers, with common responses being:

“I think it is going to make small businesses more competitive and is going to lead to less unemployment”, “Something needs to be done. Things need to be changed — it’s too hard for an employer to get rid of someone who’s not doing their job right”, “The reforms are there to protect small business — small businesses need protection” and “There are s many cases where small businesses have gone through really hard times because of employees making it hard for them”.

Many believed the reforms will help improve productivity and be beneficial to the economy, saying:

“It’s the way of the world — we have to become more competitive”, “Industrial Relations reforms are designed to improve productivity and living standards”, “I think the reform is needed in order to continue the good economic capacity Australia currently has” and “There are real pressures on any Australian business these days coming from Asia and China - meaning that we need to reform out Industrial Relations systems in order to become more competitive in a globalizing labor market”.

Others who agree with the Industrial Relations reforms believe the Unions currently have too much power, with comments such as:

“Unions have had too much power over the last 20-30 years — it has been detrimental to the workers”, “The unions need their powers curbed”, “I think the unions have quite a bit of power in some industries. Lessen the union power in those areas to make them more productive “ and “I think the trade unions have outlived their original purpose and now business and small business in particular should be able to get rid of the people they want to”.

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted on the evenings of October 12/13, 2005, with 662 respondents aged 14 and over Australia-wide.     

For further information:

Gary Morgan :   Office (03) 9224 5213   Mobile 0411 129 094   Home (03) 9419 3242

Michele Levine :   Office (03) 9224 5215   Mobile 0411 129 093   Home (03) 9817 3066
 

Proposed Industrial Relations Reforms

Respondents were first asked: “Firstly, about the Federal Government’s proposed Industrial Relations reforms. Have you read or heard about this?”

Men were more likely than women (84% cf 77%) to have read or heard about the Federal Government’s proposed Industrial Relations reforms.

People aged 50 and over were the most likely (88%) to have heard about the proposed reforms.

Total All
People Aged 14+
 
Analysis by Sex &Age
July 20/21
October 12/13
 
 
 
 
2005
2005
Men
Women
14-17#
18-24
25-34
35-49
50+
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%

Yes

79
80
84
77
42
60
83
87
88

No

21
20
16
23
58
40
17
13
12

Total

100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Analysis by voting intention shows that a large majority of L-NP (85%) and ALP (85%) supporters have read or heard about the Federal Government’s proposed Industrial Relations reforms.

 

Total All
People Aged 14+
 
Analysis by Voting Intention
July 20/21
October 12/13
Aust
The
Family
Ind /
No
2005
2005
L-NP
ALP
Dem.#
Greens#
First#
Other#
Answer*
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%

Yes

79
80
84
85
79
89
78
85
56

No

21
20
16
15
21
11
22
15
44

Total

100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

*Includes all respondents who were undecided on voting intention, plus those ineligible to vote and those aged 14-17

White Collar workers were more likely than Blue Collar workers (88% cf 66%) to have read or heard about the proposed reforms while Union members were more likely than Non-Union members to have heard of the proposed reforms (91% cf 80%).


 
Total All
People Aged 14+
Analysis by Occupation & Union Membership
July 20/21
October 12/13
White
Blue
Union
Non-Union
2005
2005
Collar
Collar
Member
Member

 

%
%

%

%

%

%

Yes

79
80

88

66

91

80

No

21
20

12

34

9

20

Total

100
100

100

100

100

100

Agree Or Disagree With Industrial Relations Reforms?

Respondents who had read or heard about the proposed Industrial Relations reforms were then asked: “Do you agree or disagree with the proposed Industrial Relations reforms?”

Men were more likely than women (20% cf 15%) to agree with the proposed reforms.

Analysis by age shows those aged 35-49 were more likely (at 22%) than any other age group to agree with the proposed Industrial Relations reforms. Those in the 14-17 year age group were the least likely (at 5%) to agree with the reforms.

 

Total All
People Aged 14+
 
Analysis by Sex & Age
July 20/21
October 12/13
 
 
 
 
2005
2005
Men
Women
14-17#
18-24
25-34
35-49
50+
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%

Agree

17
17
20
15
5
11
16
22
19

Disagree

47
49
52
46
32
38
54
53
51

Can’t say

15
14
12
16
5
11
13
12
18

Haven’t heard of reforms

21
20
16
23
58
40
17
13
12

Total

100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100

Supporters of the L-NP were more likely than supporters of any other party to agree with the Government’s proposed Industrial Relations reforms, with 35% agreeing. Only 5% of supporters of the ALP agreed with the proposed reforms.

Total All
People Aged 14+
 
Analysis by Voting Intention
July 20/21
October 12/13
Aust
The
Family
Ind/
No
2005
2005
L-NP
ALP
Dem.#
Greens#
First#
Other#
Answer*
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%

Agree

17
17
35
5
21
8
20
9
10

Disagree

47
49
28
73
58
67
40
53
37

Can’t say

15
14
21
7
-
14
18
23
9

Haven’t heard of reforms

21
20
16
15
21
11
22
15
44

Total

100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

*Includes all respondents who were undecided on voting intention, plus those ineligible to vote and those aged 14-17

 

People living in capital cities were more likely than people living in country areas (18% cf 16%) to agree with the proposed Industrial Relations reforms.

On a State-by-state basis, those living in WA were most likely (at 24%) to agree with the proposed reforms. Those living in South Australia and Northern Territory were the least likely (7%) to agree with the proposed Industrial Relations reforms.

 

 

Total All

People Aged 14+

Analysis by Region & State

July 20/21

October 12/13

Capital

Country

2005

2005

Cities

Areas

NSW

Vic

Qld

SA/NT

WA

Tas

 

%
%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Agree

17
17

18

16

18

18

17

7

24

16

Disagree

47
49

50

47

51

51

52

47

36

35

Can’t say

15
14

15

14

13

12

15

16

20

14

Haven’t heard of reforms

21
20

17

23

18

19

16

30

20

35

Total

100
100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


White Collar workers were more likely than Blue Collar workers (20% cf 12%) to agree with the Industrial Relations reforms.

The majority of Union members (63%) disagree with the proposed reforms compared to 47% of Non-Union members.

 

 

Total All

People Aged 14+

Analysis by Occupation & Union Membership

July 20/21

October 12/13

White

Blue

Union

Non-Union

2005

2005

Collar

Collar

Member

Member

 

%
%

%

%

%

%

Agree

17
17

20

12

13

19

Disagree

47
49

52

44

63

47

Can’t say

15
14

16

10

15

14

Haven’t heard of reforms

21
20

12

34

9

20

Total

100
100

100

100

100

100


Family Better Off With Proposed Industrial Relations Reforms?

Respondents who had read or heard about the proposed Industrial Relations reforms were then asked: “In your opinion w ill you and your family be better off with the proposed Industrial Relations reforms, or not?”

Men were more likely than women (42% cf 35%) to believe that they and their family would not be better off under the proposed Industrial Relations reforms.

People aged 25 to 34 were slightly more likely than any other age group to think that they and their family would be better off under the proposed Industrial Relations reforms, with 16%.

 
Total All
People Aged 14+
 
Analysis by Sex and Age
 
July 20/21
October 12/13
 
 
 
 
 
2005
2005
Men
Women
14-17#
18-24
25-34
35-49
50+
 
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%

Yes, will be better off

10
10
10
11
7
6
16
13
7

No, will not be better off

42
39
42
35
13
27
45
44
41

Can’t say

27
31
32
31
22
27
22
30
40

Haven’t heard of reforms

21
20
16
23
58
40
17
13
12

Total

100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100

Supporters of the L-NP were most likely to think that they and their family would be better off under the proposed Industrial Relations reforms, with 17%, whilst only 1% of Greens supporters though that they and their family would be better off.

Total All
People Aged 14+
 
Analysis by Voting Intention
July 20/21
October 12/13
Aust
The
Family
Ind /
No
2005
2005
L-NP
ALP
Dem.#
Greens#
First#
Other#
Answer*
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%

Yes, will be better off

10
10
17
6
10
1
6
6
9

No, will not be better off

42
39
25
54
30
60
49
53
24

Can’t say

27
31
42
25
39
28
23
26
23

Haven’t heard of reforms

21
20
16
15
21
11
22
15
44

Total

100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

*Includes all respondents who were undecided on voting intention, plus those ineligible to vote and those aged 14-17

Those living in Tasmania and NSW were the most likely (14% and 13% respectively) to think that they and their families would be better off under the proposed reforms, whilst South Australia and Northern Territory residents were the least likely to think they and their families would be better off, with 4%.

 
Total All
People Aged 14+
Analysis by Region and State
20/21 July
October 12/13
Capital
Country
2005
2005
Cities
Areas
NSW
Vic
Qld
SA/NT
WA
Tas

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Yes, will be better off

10
10

9

11

13

9

9

4

6

14

No, will not be better off

42
39

40

37

41

36

42

44

34

28

Can’t say

27
31

33

29

28

36

33

22

41

23

Haven’t heard of reforms

21
20

18

23

18

19

16

30

19

35

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

White Collar workers were more likely than Blue Collar workers (12% cf 7%) to think that they and their family would be better off under the proposed Industrial Relations reforms.

The majority of union members (54%) think they will not be better off under the proposed Industrial Relations reforms compared to 37% of non-union members.

 
Total All
People Aged 14+
Analysis by Occupation of Respondent
20/21 July
October 12/13
White
Blue
Union
Non-Union
2005
2005
Collar
Collar
Member
Member

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

Yes, will be better off

10
10

12

7

12

10

No, will not be better off

42
39

41

34

54

37

Can’t say

27
31

35

25

25

33

Haven’t heard of reforms

21
20

12

34

9

20

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100


Probationary Period Extended From 3 To 6 Months

All respondents were then asked: “ It is proposed that the probationary period for new employees be extended from 3 to 6 months. Do you agree or disagree with this proposal?”

A majority of people (54%) disagree with the proposal that the probationary period for new employees be extended from 3 to 6 months.

Those aged 50 and over were the most likely to agree with proposal (48%)

 

Total All
People Aged 14+
 
Analysis by Sex and Age
July 20/21
October 12/13
 
 
 
 
2005
2005
Men
Women
14-17#
18-24
25-34
35-49
50+
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%

Agree

43
41
42
39
29
38
33
39
48

Disagree

47
54
52
56
62
59
66
55
45

Can’t say

10
5
6
5
9
3
1
6
7

Total

100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Fifty percent of L-NP and Australia Democrat supporters agreed with the proposal that the probationary period for new employees be extended from 3 to 6 months, compared with 36% of ALP supporters. Family First supporters were the least likely (15%) to agree with the proposal.

Total All
People Aged 14+
 
Analysis by Voting Intention
July 20/21
October 12/13
Aust
The
Family
Ind /
No
2005
2005
L-NP
ALP
Dem.#
Greens#
First#
Other#
Answer*
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%

Agree

43
41
50
36
50
39
15
32
37

Disagree

47
54
45
59
40
56
85
63
57

Can’t say

10
5
5
5
10
5
-
5
6

Total

100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

*Includes all respondents who were undecided on voting intention, plus those ineligible to vote and those aged 14-17

Analysis by State shows that those from Western Australia were the most likely (46%) to agree with the proposal that the probationary period for new employees be extended from 3 to 6 months, whilst Tasmanians were the least likely to agree (35%).

 
Total All
People Aged 14+
Analysis by Region and State
 
20/21 July
October 12/13
Capital
Country
2005
2005
Cities
Areas
NSW
Vic
Qld
SA
WA
Tas

 

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

Agree

43
41

42

39

42

38

39

41

46

35

Disagree

47
54

53

56

52

58

56

52

46

61

Can’t say

10
5

5

5

6

4

5

7

8

4

Total

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100


Cash In Annual Leave

Respondents were then asked: “It is proposed that employees will be able to cash in two weeks of their annual leave. Do you agree or disagree with the proposed idea?”

An analysis by age shows that people aged over 50 were least likely (44%) to agree with this proposal.

Total All
People Aged 14+
 
Analysis by Sex and Age
July 20/21
October 12/13
 
 
 
 
2005
2005
Men
Women
14-17#
18-24
25-34
35-49
50+
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%

Agree

55
55
57
52
85
67
59
53
44

Disagree

39
40
38
41
14
30
34
43
48

Can’t say

6
5
5
7
1
3
7
4
8

Total

100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100

Supporters of the L-NP were the most likely to agree with the proposal that employees be able to cash in two weeks of their annual leave, with 66%. Supporters of the ALP, the Greens, and the Australian Democrats (all 40%) were the least likely to agree.

Total All
People Aged 14+
 
Analysis by Voting Intention
July 20/21
October 12/13
Aust
The
Family
Ind /
No
2005
2005
L-NP
ALP
Dem.#
Greens#
First#
Other#
Answer*
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%

Agree

55
55
66
40
40
40
42
54
69

Disagree

39
40
27
54
50
56
58
44
26

Can’t say

6
5
7
6
10
4
-
2
5

Total

100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

*Includes all respondents who were undecided on voting intention, plus those ineligible to vote and those aged 14-17

A majority of people in both capital cities (53%) and country areas (57%) agree with the proposed idea that employees be able to cash in two weeks of their annual leave.

Tasmanians (74%) were most likely to agree with the proposal, whilst people from Victoria (49%) were the least likely.

 
Total All
People Aged 14+
Analysis by Region and State
20/21 July
October 12/13
Capital
Country
2005