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| NEWS : Morgan Poll : | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
L-NP Primary Support Down 2.5% To 39.5% In Wake Of IR Reforms - ALP Would Win Election
In mid-October primary support for the L-NP Government fell 2.5% to 39.5% which is 6.9% below the L-NP result at the October 2004 Federal election. Support for the ALP rose 3% to 41.5%, 3.9% above the ALP resultat the Federal election. Had a Federal Election been held in mid-October, the ALP would win, the latest Morgan Poll finds. If preferences of minor parties were allocated as they were at the 2004 Federal election (ALP — 60.5%, L-NP — 39.5%) the ‘two-party’ preferred vote would be L- NP — 47% (down 2.5%), ALP — 53% (up 2.5%). Among the minor parties, support for the Greens was 9% (unchanged), Australian Democrats 2% (down 0.5%), Family First 2% (unchanged), One Nation 1.5% (unchanged) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 4.5% (unchanged). Gary Morgan says: “The Coalition has lost support in the wake of public debate over the Industrial Relations reforms. The Morgan Poll released earlier this week showed that public opinion is still strongly against the reforms and hasn’t changed since July, despite the massive publicity and advertising by the Government. The ALP support is now 2% above L-NP support, if an election were held now the ALP would win.” During the period: - The Federal Government launched the advertising campaign for its new Industrial Relations changes. A two-week Senate inquiry into the proposed changes was flagged. - ACT Chief Minister, Jon Stanhope, published the draft anti-terrorism legislation agreed to by the Labor Premiers and Chief Ministers in September. The legislation provided to State and Territory governments in confidence by the Federal Government was released in an environment of increasing disquiet over the legislation’s potential to infringe civil liberties in the name of domestic security. - Queensland Senator Barnaby Joyce crossed the floor to defeat Government-sponsored changes to trade practices legislation. Senator Joyce also flagged his discomfort with proposed Government legislation establishing voluntary student unionism in Australian universities. - The Federal Opposition accused Treasurer Peter Costello of deliberately holding back tax cuts until closer to the next election. - Prime Minister John Howard said the introduction of voluntary voting is not on the Government's agenda. - Debate was renewed within Federal Parliament about the possible legalisation of abortion pill RU-486. - The Federal Minister for Immigration and her Department came under renewed scrutiny following the publication of a report by Former Victorian police Commissioner Neil Comrie into the way it dealt with suspected illegal residents in Australia. - Bird ‘flu spread from Asia to Turkey and Romania while questions were raised about the Federal Government’s preparedness for an Australian Bird ‘flu pandemic. - Bali dominated Australia’s international horizons as alleged Australian drug traffickers were put on trial, Schapelle Corby saw her 20-year sentence for drug trafficking reduced by five years, the third anniversary of the 2002. - Bali bombings was marked in ceremonies around the country and the aftermath of the most recent Bali bombings was felt. Special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research in which respondents gave their reason for voting was conducted on October 8/9, 2005. L-NP supporters were largely happy with the Government’s proposed Industrial Relations reforms, with comments such as: “I am happy with the Liberal’s support of small business — they are not as union orientated”, “We are a family run business and it suits us”, “I am a great believer in free enterprise” and “The unions have caused too much damage to the country”. Many L-NP supporters were impressed with the L-NP Government and the leadership of John Howard, saying: “John Howard is a very fine man”, “Even though John Howard is in with George Bush, I feel Australia is quite safe. He is a reasonable family man”, “Mr Howard is a family man and understands families with children” and “John Howard reasons things out and genuinely cares about country and people”. ALP Supporters continued to be dissatisfied with the L-NP Government and their policies, with comments such as: “I don’t agree with the Liberal policies in general — specifically policies in Education, Health, International policies:, “I am not particularly fond of Labor, but I am not happy with the Liberals who take Australia back to the 50’s. I don’t like their attitude towards the vulnerable people of society” and “The Liberals are often liars. They are caught out too often and they keep stuffing up financially”. Some ALP supporters were concerned about the Government’s proposed Industrial Relations changes, commenting: “I always liked the unions”, “I don’t like what John Howard is doing to Industrial Relations”, and “I am concerned by the unfair dismissal laws”. ALP supporters preferred Labor Party policies, saying: “I believe in ALP policies”, “ALP policies make it easier for new mums to return to work”, “I believe what the ALP stand for — social justice”, “I believe the ALP look after the people of Australia”, “The ALP looks after the workers”, and “I like their policies but they need a good leader”. On the question of who the electorate thinks will win the next Federal Election, the L-NP leads the ALP by 41.5% (up 0.5%). Now 65% (unchanged) of electors think the L-NP will win the Federal Election while 23.5% (down 0.5%) think the ALP will win (11.5% can’t say). This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekends of October 8/9 & 15/16, 2005, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,772 electors. Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today - which party would receive your first preference?” Of all electors surveyed, 4.5% (down 1.5%) did not name a party.
For further information:
THINK WILL WIN Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"
FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)
Morgan Poll sampling tolerance: The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution 6% (up 1.5%) did not name a party. View Federal Voting Intention Trend
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