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NSW: Support For NSW Government Steady In October

Finding No. 3917 - October 29, 2005

During October, primary support for the NSW ALP State Government remained unchanged at 43.5% while support for the L-NP fell 0.5% to 36.5%.

On a two-party preferred basis, with preferences distributed as they were at the 2003 State Election, the ALP, with 55.5% (up 0.5%), had an 11% lead over the L-NP (44.5%, down 0.5%). If a NSW State Election had been held during October, the ALP would have won easily, the latest Morgan Poll finds.

Among the minor parties, primary support for the Greens was 9% (up 1%), Australian Democrats 1.5% (unchanged), One Nation 1% (unchanged), Family First 2% (up 0.5%) Christian Democrats 1.5%, and Independent Candidates and Other Parties 5% (down 2.5%)*.

During the period:

• The Federal Government launched the advertising campaign for its new Industrial Relations changes. The Labor Party continued to oppose the reforms at both Federal and State levels.

• Nationals MP Andrew Fraser was suspended from parliament for 8 days after he physically attacked Roads Minister Joe Tripodi. He later stepped down from the Opposition frontbench.

• NSW Roads Minister Joe Tripodi admitted too many compromises were made in negotiations with CrossCity Motorway over the CrossCity tunnel, which is seen as too expensive and “not working”. The NSW Government continued to negotiate with the owners of the tunnel to reduce the toll.

• State Leaders met with the Prime Minister in Canberra to discuss anti-terrorism laws. The States approved the new legislation allowing police to detain terrorism suspects for up to two weeks without charge. The new laws will be reviewed after 5 years and will expire after 10 years.

• Former NSW Liberal leader and Member for Pittwater, John Brogden, resigned from Parliament a month after his apparent suicide attempt. The ALP decided not to stand a candidate to contest the vacant seat.

• The NSW Government announced a recruitment drive to hire an extra 1,600 apprentices over the next 5 years so that the State will not be caught out by a skills shortage.

• The Iemma Government announced that it will deregulate its domestic rice market in order to avoid a $26 million dollar penalty from the Federal Government, however Sunrice will remain the sole exporter of rice grown in NSW.

• The NSW Government announced it would spend $25million to improve security on Sydney ’s buses.

Respondents gave reasons for voting for their preferred party during special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research, conducted on October 15/16, 2005.

Many ALP supporters were concerned with the state of the Liberal Party, saying: “The Liberals are in disarray”, “The Liberals aren’t strong enough in their vision at present”, “I don’t think the Liberal Party is up to the job”, and “The Liberal Party are in turmoil”.

Some ALP supporters agreed with the policies of the Labor Party, with comments such as: “I vote Labor because of their Health, Transport and Education policies”, “Social politics rather than Economic politics”, and “I’m against the Federal Industrial Relations reform and so are Labor”.

Many Liberal supporters commented that it is time for a change: “The State’s a complete mess. We need a change”, “They’ve got to be better than the one’s in now. It’s been a long time”, “The present Government has been in too long and is out of touch with the people” and “I’m sick of the Labor Party they’ve done nothing for the State. It’s time for a change”.

Other Liberal supporters were critical of the ALP policies, saying: “I don’t think Labor has any answers in this State”, “We need a change in Government for the sake of Transport, Health and Social issues”, “We need better policies on schools, health and infrastructure” and “Labor have done a poor job, mainly with hospitals and tunnels”.

Preferences of supporters of the Greens (ALP — 86% cf L-NP — 14%), the Australian Democrats (ALP — 73.5% cf L-NP — 26.5%) and One Nation (ALP — 60% cf L-NP — 40%) favored the ALP, while supporters of the Christian Democratic Party (L-NP — 84.5%, ALP — 15.5%), Family First (L-NP — 51% cf ALP — 49%) and Independent Candidates and Other Parties (L-NP — 51.5% cf ALP — 48.5%) favored the Opposition.

This latest Morgan Poll on New South Wales State Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face among 1,084 electors throughout New South Wales during October 2005. Electors were asked: “If a State election were being held today — which Party would receive your first preference?”

Of all electors surveyed 6% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.

* Independent Candidates and Other Parties formerly included the Christian Democratic Party.

For further information:

Gary Morgan

Office (03) 9224 5213

Mobile 0411 129 094

Home (03) 9419 3242

Michele Levine

Office (03) 9224 5215

Mobile 0411 129 093

Home (03) 9817 3066

NSW STATE VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY (%)

PRIMARY VOTE	ALP	L-NP	Aust. Dem.#	The Greens	One Nation#	Family First#	Christian Dems#	Ind./ Others#

Election March 25, 1995	41.3	43.9	2.9	2.6	n/a	+	~	9.3
Election March 27, 1999	42.2	33.7 (8.8)	3.3	3.9	7.5	+	~	9.4
Election March 22, 2003	42.6	34.6 (9.7)	0.9	8.3	1.3	+	~	12.3

Morgan Poll
February 2004	49.5	36(3)	1.5	6.5	1	+	~	5.5
March 2004	44	37.5(3.5)	2	8.5	1	+	~	7
April 2004	43.5	37.5(3.5)	1.5	10.5	0.5	+	~	6.5
May 2004	42.5	37.5(3)	2	9.5	1	+	~	7.5
June 2004	40.5	41(3)	2	8.5	0.5	+	~	7.5
July 2004	44	38 (4)	1.5	10	1	+	~	5.5
August 2004	41.5	40 (2.5)	2	8.5	0.5	+	~	7.5
September 2004	40	41 (3)	1.5	9	0.5	+	~	8
October 2004	42	43.5 (4.5)	1.5	7	1	+	~	5
November 2004	42.5	40.5 (3.5)	1	8.5	1	+	~	6.5
December 2004	36	44.5 (3)	1.5	9	1.5	+	~	7.5
January 2005	42.5	41.5 (2.5)	1.5	6.5	1	+	~	7
February 2005	41.5	42 (3)	1.5	8	0.5	+	~	6.5
March 2005	39.5	43.5 (3)	0.5	9	0.5	+	~	7
April 2005	42	40.5 (2.5)	1.5	7.5	1.5	+	~	7
May 2005	41	42 (3)	2	7.5	0.5	+	~	7
June 2005	42.5	39.5 (2.5)	1	8	0.5	+	~	8.5
July 2005	42	39 (4)	1	7	1	+	~	10
August 2005	48	35.5 (4)	0.5	7.5	1	2	~	5.5
September 2005	43.5	37 (5)	1.5	8	1	1.5	_	7.5
October 2005	43.5	36.5 (3)	1.5	9	1	2	1.5	5

Note: National Party results are in brackets

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)

	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP

Election March 25, 1995	49	51
Election March 27, 1999	56	44
Election March 22, 2003	56.2^**	43.8^**

MORGAN POLL	Preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote		Preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2003 election
February 2004	59.5	40.5	58	42
March 2004	57	43	55	45
April 2004	57	43	55	45
May 2004	56.5	43.5	54.5	45.5
June 2004	53	47	51.5	48.5
July 2004	56.5	43.5	55	45
August 2004	54	46	52.5	47.5
September 2004	54.5	45.5	51.5	48.5
October 2004	52.5	47.5	50.5	49.5
November 2004	54	46	52.5	47.5
December 2004	48.5	51.5	47.5	52.5
January 2005	53	47	52	48
February 2005	52	48	51.5	48.5
March 2005	51	49	49.5	50.5
April 2005	54	46	52.5	47.5
May 2005	53	47	51	49
June 2005	54.5	45.5	53	47
July 2005	54.5	45.5	53.5	46.5
August 2005	58	42	58	42
September 2005	55.5	44.5	55	45
October 2005	56.5	43.5	55.5	44.5

^Malcolm Mackerras Estimate

** The State Electoral Office of New South Wales has not released a two-party preferred vote from the March 2003 State election.

TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES (%)
	July 2005		August 2005		September 2005		October 2005
MORGAN POLL	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP
Australian Democrats #	69.5	30.5	44.5	55.5	85.5	14.5	73.5	26.5
The Greens	93.5	6.5	80.5	19.5	81	19	86	14
One Nation #	80.5	19.5	32.5	67.5	54.5	45.5	60	40
Family First#	+	+	49.5	50.5	56	44	49	51
Christian Democrats#	~	~	~	~	~	~	15.5	84.5
Independent/Other#	45.5	54.5	41	59	42.5	57.5	55.5	44.5

# Results from sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.

+ The Family First Vote was first split from the Independent/Other vote in New South Wales in September, 2005

Sample: 1,084 electors

Interviewed: October 2005

6% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.

Finding No. 3917 is taken from Computer Report No. 2068