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VIC: Victorian ALP Primary Support Up 5.5% To 50% - Highest Since June 2004

Finding No. 3918 - October 29, 2005

During October primary support for the Victorian ALP Government rose 5.5% to 50% while primary support for the Liberal Party fell 3%% to 32%. ALP primary support is the highest since July 2004 when support was 50.5% Primary support for the Liberal Party is at its lowest since September 2004 (32%).

On a two-party preferred basis (preferences distributed as they were at the 2002 State Election) ALP support increased 3% to 60.5%, a 21% lead over the L-NP (39.5%). If a Victorian State Election had been held in October, the ALP would have won easily, the latest Morgan Poll finds.

Amongst the minor parties, primary support for the Greens was 7% (down 1%), Family First 3% (unchanged), the Australian Democrats 1.5% (unchanged), the National Party 3% (up 0.5%) and Independent Candidates and Other Parties 3.5% (down 2%).

During the period:

• Controversy continued over Victorian Opposition Leader Robert Doyle’s decision to back down from his promise to remove tolls from the Mitcham-Frankston Freeway.

• The Federal Government launched the advertising campaign for its new Industrial Relations changes. The Labor Party continued to oppose the reforms at both Federal and State levels.

• The Bracks Government released its 2004-05 financial report showing a budget surplus of $795 million - $266 million above the expected surplus figure.

• The Victorian Opposition accused the State Labor Government of trying to avoid scrutiny before next year’s election by limiting the number of days parliament will sit next year.

• The Victorian Government began establishing broadband Internet connections to Government schools as part of its $89 million program announced in the May Budget.

• State Leaders met with the Prime Minister in Canberra to discuss anti-terrorism laws. The States approved the new legislation allowing police to detain terrorism suspects for up to two weeks without charge. The new laws will be reviewed after 5 years and will expire after 10 years.

• The Victorian Government reached a deal with emergency services unions to stop Police, Fire and Ambulance workers from striking during the Phillip Island MotoGP/Caulfield Cup weekend.

Respondents gave reasons for voting for their preferred Party during special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research, conducted on October 15/16, 2005.

ALP supporters were largely happy with the ALP and their policies, particularly education, saying: “The ALP policies are to our benefit”, “The ALP is better for the people”, “I like the education policies of the Labor party”, “The Labor education policies are better” and “I think the Labor Party offers more for my family” .

Other ALP supporters expressed their disappointment with the Liberal Party, saying; “There is a lack of leadership in the Liberal Party”, “The Liberal Opposition is inadequate” , and “I give the Liberals the thumbs down at the moment” . Others were more forceful in their views, with comments such as: “The Leader of the Liberal Party is an idiot” and “I have a deep ingrained hatred for the Liberal Party”.

Many Liberal Party supporters were unhappy with Premier Steve Bracks’ leadership, particularly in relation to the Eastlink Freeway, with comments such as ; “You can’t trust Bracks - too many broken promises”, “Bracks has told too many lies especially about freeway tolls”, “Bracks bends with the wind” and “I don’t like Labor attitudes or their back-flips on policies like the toll roads”.

Other Liberal Party supporters were of the belief that it is time for a change in Government, some citing financial management reasons, saying, “I don’t believe Steve Bracks has done much for business”, “I don’t like the financial direction Labor is taking the State” and “We need a change in Government”.

Preferences of supporters of the Australian Democrats (ALP — 88.5% cf L-NP — 11.5%), the Greens (ALP — 79.5% cf L-NP — 20.5%) Family First (ALP — 59.5% cf L-NP — 40.5), and Independent Candidates and Other Parties (ALP — 60.5% cf L-NP — 39.5%) all favored the State Government.

This latest Morgan Poll on Victorian State Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face among 866 electors throughout Victoria during October 2005. Electors were asked: “If a State election were being held today — which Party would receive your first preference?”

Of all electors surveyed, 6% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.

For further information:

Gary Morgan	Office (03) 9224 5213	Mobile 0411 129 094	Home (03) 9419 3242
Michele Levine	Office (03) 9224 5215	Mobile 0411 129 093	Home (03) 9817 3066

VICTORIAN STATE VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY (%)

PRIMARY VOTE	ALP	Lib.	NP	Dem.#	Greens#	Family First#	Others#

Election September 18, 1999	45.5	42.2	4.9	0.3	1.1	^	6
Election November 30, 2002	47.9	33.9	4.3	0.1	9.7	^	4.1

Morgan Poll
January 2004	48	34.5	2	1.5	9	*	5
February 2004	53	31.5	2	3	6.5	*	4
March 2004	48.5	35.5	2.5	2	7.5	*	4
April 2004	52	33	1.5	1.5	7	*	5
May 2004	49	35	2.5	2.5	7.5	*	3.5
June 2004	47	35.5	1.5	1.5	7.5	*	7
July 2004	50.5	34	2	2.5	6.5	*	4.5
August 2004	47	35	2	2	9	*	5
September 2004	48	32	3	2.5	10.5	*	4
October 2004	42.5	42	2.5	1	7.5	*	4.5
November 2004	41.5	41	2	1	9.5	*	5
December 2004	45	35.5	3	1	9	2.5	4
January 2005	43.5	40.5	2.5	1.5	7	2	3
February 2005	48.5	37	1	1.5	7.5	1.5	3
March 2005	45.5	37.5	1.5	2	8	2.5	3
April 2005	43.5	35.5	3	1	8.5	2.5	6
May 2005	46.5	35.5	3	1.5	7	2.5	4
June 2005	43.5	36	2.5	1.5	9.5	3	4
July 2005	45.5	37	2.5	2	6.5	2	4.5
August 2005	47	36	2.5	1	7	2.5	4
September 2005	44.5	35	2.5	1.5	8	3	5.5
October 2005	50	32	3	1.5	7	3	3.5

^Family First was launched in August 2004

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)

	ALP	Lib.

Election September 18, 1999	50.2	49.8
Election November 30, 2002	57.8	42.2

MORGAN POLL	Preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote		Preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2002 election
	ALP	Lib.	ALP	Lib.
January 2004	58.5	41.5	59	41
February 2004	62.5	37.5	62.5	37.5
March 2004	58.5	41.5	58	42
April 2004	60.5	39.5	61.5	38.5
May 2004	59	41	58.5	41.5
June 2004	58.5	41.5	58.5	41.5
July 2004	58.5	41.5	60	40
August 2004	59	41	51.5	48.5
September 2004	60.5	39.5	60	40
October 2004	52	48	51.5	48.5
November 2004	52.5	47.5	52.5	47.5
December 2004	57.5	42.5	56.5	43.5
January 2005	52	48	53	47
February 2005	56.5	43.5	58	42
March 2005	56.5	43.5	56.5	43.5
April 2005	55.5	44.5	56.5	43.5
May 2005	57	43	57	43
June 2005	55.5	44.5	56.5	43.5
July 2005	55	45	56	44
August 2005	57	43	57.5	42.5
September 2005	55.5	44.5	57.5	42.5
October 2005	60.5	39.5	60.5	39.5

TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES (%)
	July 2005		August 2005		September 2005		October 2005
MORGAN POLL	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP
The Greens #	79	21	89.5	10.5	70.5	29.5	79.5	20.5
Australian Democrats #	48	52	52.5	47.5	77.5	22.5	88.5	11.5
Family First #	47.5	52.5	73	27	33.5	66.5	59.5	40.5
Independent/Other #	55	45	44.5	55.5	63	37	60.5	39.5

# Results from sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.

Sample: 866 electors

Interviewed: October 2005

6% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.

ALP

Lib.

ALP

Lib.