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Qld ALP Primary Support Down 4% To 49%, But Beattie Would Still Win Easily
Finding No. 3920 - October 29, 2005

During September - October, primary support for the Queensland ALP State Government fell 4% to 49%, while support for the reformed L-NP Coalition rose 4% to 35.5% (Liberals - 25%, up 3.5%, Nationals - 10.5%, up 0.5%).

On a two-party preferred basis, with preferences distributed as they were at the 2004 State election, support for the ALP was down 4% to 56.5%, while L-NP support was 43.5% (up 4%). If a Queensland State election had been held in September - October the ALP would have won easily, the latest Morgan Poll finds.

Among the minor parties, support for the Greens rose 0.5% to 5.5%, Family First support was 2% (unchanged), One Nation 2.5% (up 1%), Other Parties and Independent Candidates 4.5% (down 1%) and Australian Democrats 1% (down 0.5%).

During the period:

•  The Federal Government launched the advertising campaign for its new Industrial Relations changes. The Labor Party continued to oppose the reforms at both Federal and State levels.

•  The Queensland Liberal and National Parties reformed their Coalition after 18 months apart. National Party Leader, Lawrence Springborg, remained leader of the Opposition. Twelve Nationals and Six Liberals were announced as Ministers of the Shadow Cabinet.

•  The Forster review of Queensland Health was released, recommending a $1.5 billion increase in health spending.

•  Premier Beattie unveiled his plans to overhaul the State health system, which would involve the means testing of patients. The plans were described as “illegal” by the Federal Health Minister Tony Abbott.

•  The Morris Health Inquiry collapsed, decreasing the likelihood of the extradition of Dr. Jayant Patel. Premier Beattie announced an extra $3 million compensation for victims of Dr. Patel.

•  The Queensland Opposition accused Premier Peter Beattie of covering up the true state of Queensland Health and called on him to front the public hospital inquiry following the collapse of the Morris Inquiry.

•  State Leaders met with the Prime Minister in Canberra to discuss anti-terrorism laws. The states approved the new legislation allowing police to detain terrorism suspects for up to two weeks without charge. The new laws will be reviewed after 5 years and will expire after 10 years.

•  Former Federal Labor Opposition Leader Mark Latham released The Latham Diaries in which he attacked both Federal and State Labor Party figures.

Respondents gave reasons for voting for their preferred Party during special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research, conducted on September 10/11 & October 15/16, 2005.

Many ALP supporters were happy with Premier Beattie’s leadership, commenting: “I like Peter Beattie. He’s a strong leader and open-minded”, “Beattie is going well, he’s a decisive leader”, “I like the Premier, he’s doing a good job” and “Mr. Beattie is an honest person and takes responsibility”.

Other ALP supporters expressed disappointment with the Opposition Parties, saying : “I don’t think the Opposition has the ability to do the job”, “The Nationals and Liberals are no opposition”, “I’m disenchanted with the Liberals”, and “The Coalition is pitiful and has no leadership”.

Many Liberal Party supporters expressed dissatisfaction with the performance of the current Government and Premier Peter Beattie, with comments such as: “Peter Beattie passes the buck”, “I’m disgusted with the current Government”, “Labor isn’t up to the job, they can’t handle money”, “The Labor Party is dishonest” and “I’m becoming disillusioned with the way things are being run at the moment”.

Some supporters of the Liberals specifically expressed concern over Labor’s management of the health system, saying: “ I don’t like what Labor has done with health, “The health issue has not been addressed” and “I think Beattie is hiding too much about the health situation”.

Preferences of supporters of the Australian Democrats (ALP — 62% cf L-NP — 38%) and the Greens (ALP — 60.5% cf L-NP — 39.5%) favored the ALP State Government, while preferences of supporters of Family First (L-NP — 66% cf ALP — 34%), One Nation (L-NP — 53.5% cf ALP — 46.5%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates (L-NP — 51.5% cf ALP — 48.5%) favored the L-NP Opposition.

The latest Morgan Poll on Queensland State Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face among 1,564 electors throughout Queensland on the weekends of September and October 2005. Electors were asked: “If a State election were being held today — which Party would receive your first preference?” Of all electors surveyed, 4.5% (down 0.5%) were undecided on voting intention.

For further information:

Gary Morgan

Office (03) 9224 5213

Mobile 0411 129 094

Home (03) 9419 3242

Michele Levine

Office (03) 9224 5215

Mobile 0411 129 093

Home (03) 9817 3066


 

QUEENSLAND STATE VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY (%)

PRIMARY VOTE ALP L-NP Liberal National One Nation## Aust.
Dem.##		 The
Greens		 Family First## Ind./
Other
  % % % % % % % % %
Election June 13, 1998 38.9 31.3 16.1 15.2 22.7 1.6 2.3 ^ 3.2
Election February 17, 2001 48.9 28.5 14.3 14.2 8.7 0.3 2.5 ^ 11.1
Election February 7, 2004 47.0 35.5 18.5 17

4.9

 -

6.8

 ^ 5.8
MORGAN POLL
March - April 2004 53 33 21.5 11.5 2.5 1 6 * 4.5
May - June 2004 56.5 30 22 8 2.5 1 5.5 * 4.5
July - August 2004 56 31.5 22.5 9 2.5 1 4 * 5
September - October 2004 52 33 27 6 3 1.5 5.5 * 5
November - December 2004 49.5 34.5 25 9.5 2 0.5 6 3 4.5
January - February 2005 51.5 32.5 22.5 10 2.5 1 4.5 2.5 5.5
March - April 2005 53 32 24 8 2 0.5 6 2.5 4
May - June 2005 51 33.5 23.5 10 2 1 4.5 3.5 4.5
July - August 2005 53 31.5 21.5 10 1.5 1.5 5 2 5.5
September - October 2004 49 35.5 25 10.5 2.5 1 5.5 2 4.5

##Results from sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution

^Family First was launched in August 2004

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE

ALP L-NP    
MORGAN POLL
  % %    
Election February 7, 2004* 55.5 45.5    
MORGAN POLL
 Preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote Preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2004 election
  ALP L-NP ALP L-NP
March - April 2004 61.5 38.5 60 40
May - June 2004 65 35 63 37
July - August 2004 64 36 62 38
September - October 2004 59.5 40.5 59 41
November - December 2004 58 42 57 43
January - February 2005 59.5 40.5 59.5 40.5
March - April 2005 61.5 38.5 60.5 39.5
May - June 2005 58.5 41.5 58.5 41.5
July - August 2005 61.5 38.5 60.5 39.5
September - October 2005 56.5 43.5 56.5 43.5

Note: The Electoral Commission of Queensland has not released a two-Party preferred vote.

*Malcol Mackerras' estimate


TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES                
March - April 2005

May - June

2005

July - August

2005

 September - October 2005
MORGAN POLL ALP L-NP ALP L-NP ALP L-NP ALP L-NP
% % % % % % % %
Australian Democrats ## 72 28 50 50 55 45 62 38
The Greens 64.5 35.5 74.5 25.5 81 19 60.5 39.5
One Nation ## 59.5 40.5 30 70 46.5 53.5 46.5 53.5
Family First ## 50.5 49.5 30 70 41.5 58.5 34 66
Independent/Other 47 53 47.5 52.5 41 59 48.5 51.5

## Results from sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.
Sample: 1,564 electors were interviewed on the weekends of September - October 2005
4.5% ( down0.5%) did not name a party

Finding No. 3920 is taken from Computer Report No. 2070

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