[Roy Morgan Research] Morgan Poll

During September - October, support for the ALP in Western Australia fell 1% to 41.5% with support for L-NP also down 0.5% to 38.5%, the latest Morgan Poll finds.

On a two-party preferred basis, with preferences distributed as they were in the February State election, ALP support was 52.5% (down 0.5%), a 5% lead over the L-NP (47.5%, up 0.5%). If a Western Australian State election had been held in September - October, the ALP would have won.

Among the minor parties, support for the Greens was 10% (up 3%), Family First 1.5% (down 1.5%), Other Parties and Independent Candidates 4.5% (up 1.5%), the Christian Democratic Party 1.5% (down 0.5%), One Nation 1% (down 1.5%) and the Australian Democrats 1.5% (unchanged).

• The Federal Government launched the advertising campaign for its new Industrial Relations changes. The Labor Party continued to oppose the reforms at both Federal and State levels.

• Western Australian Treasurer, Eric Ripper, announced a record Budget surplus of $1.24 billion - $1 billion higher than the original estimate. The State’s debt also fell from $4 billion to $2 billion.

• Following the Budget surplus announcement, the Opposition called for a reduction in taxes and for the surplus to be spent on infrastructure. Labor Minister Vince Catania called for the some of the surplus to be spent on research into the merits of uranium mining.

• Labor Minister for Sports and Seniors, Bob Kucera, resigned as Minister after a conflict of interest involving the Alinta shares he and his wife held when Cabinet agreed to pay the company $88 million. The Opposition also called for the sacking of Senior Minister Alannah MacTiernan whose husband also held Alinta shares.

• The Western Australian Opposition called on the State Labor Government to ease the impact of rising fuel prices by cutting registration and licence fees.

• Liberal Member, Norman Moore, said he is concerned with how the Howard Government has intruded on the State’s Health, Education, and Industrial Relations responsibilities and that Western Australia would be better off if it broke away as a separate nation.

• Western Australian Nationals’ leader Brendon Grylls warned the Liberal Party that they will need to form a Coalition in order to win the next election.

• State Leaders met with the Prime Minister in Canberra to discuss anti-terrorism laws. The states approved the new legislation allowing police to detain terrorism suspects for up to two weeks without charge. The new laws will be reviewed after 5 years and will expire after 10 years.

• Western Australian Liberals announced they would not support the Federal Government’s Industrial Relations proposals.

• Former Federal Labor Opposition Leader Mark Latham released The Latham Diaries in which he attacked both Federal and State Labor Party figures.

Respondents gave reasons for voting for their preferred Party during special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research, conducted on September 10/11 and October 15/16, 2005.

ALP supporters were generally happy with the performance of the Labor Party, saying: “ They’re a safe and reliable Party” , “I think Labor has done some important things — things have happened and the Health system has improved” and “The State Government is doing a good job”.

Other ALP supporters expressed their belief that the Labor Party is more in tune with the people, with comments such as: “They are more inclined to think of me and people like me. They have a conscience”, “Labor is the people’s Party” “The ALP takes care of the people well” and “They are for the workers more than the other parties”.

Liberal Party supporters expressed their belief that the Liberals are stronger when it comes to the economy, saying; “The Liberals manage financial matters better”, “The Liberals make better use of all resources” and “Liberals take care of the living conditions of the people”.

Preferences of supporters of the Australian Democrats (ALP — 68% cf L-NP — 32%), Greens (ALP — 73.5% cf L-NP — 26.5%) and One Nation (ALP — 100%) favored the ALP State Government, while supporters of the Christian Democratic Party (L-NP — 89.5% cf ALP — 10.5%), Family First (L-NP— 59.5% cf ALP — 40.5%),and Other Parties and Independent candidates (L-NP — 63% cf ALP — 37%) favored the L-NP Opposition.

This Morgan Poll on Western Australia State Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face among 684 electors throughout Western Australia on the weekends of September and October, 2005. Electors were asked: “If a State election were being held today - which Party would receive your first preference?” Of all electors surveyed, 4% (up 0.5%) were undecided on voting intention.

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PRIMARY VOTE	ALP	L-NP	Aust Dem.#	The Greens#	One Nation#	Family First#	CDP	Ind./Others#

Election December 14, 1996	35.8	45.7	5.1	4.7	N/A	^	~	8.7
Election February 10, 2001	37.2	34.4	2.6	7.3	9.6	^	~	8.9
Election February 26, 2005	41.9	39.3	>	7.6	1.6	2	2.9	4.7

Morgan Poll
March - April 2005	48	35	0.5	8	1.5	1.5	2.5	3
May - June 2005	43.5	40	1	7	1.5	3	2	2
July - August 2005	42.5	39	1.5	7	2.5	2.5	2	3
September - October 2005	41.5	38.5	1.5	10	1	1.5	1.5	4.5

#Results from sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.

^Family First was launched in August 2004

> The Australian Democrats did not have anyone stand for the Legislative Assembly in 2005

~ The Christian Democratic Party had only a minor percentage of the vote before 2005 and were classed in ‘Other Parties and Independent Candidates’

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)

	ALP	L-NP

Election December 14, 1996	44.8	55.2
Election February 10, 2001	52.7**	47.3**
Election February 26, 2005	52.3**	47.7**

MORGAN POLL	Preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote		Preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2005 election
	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP
March - April 2005	57.5	42.5	57.5	42.5
May - June 2005	54	46	52.5	47.5
July - August, 2005	54.5	45.5	53	47
September - October 2005	53	47	52.5	47.5

**Malcolm Mackerras Estimate

Note: The Western Australian Electoral Commission has not released a Two-Party preferred vote for the February 10, 2001 State Election or the February 26, 2005 State Election.

TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES (%)
	May - June 2005		July - August 2005		September - October 2005
MORGAN POLL	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP
Australian Democrats ##	88	12	87	13	68	32
The Greens ##	82.5	17.5	84.5	15.5	73.5	26.5
One Nation ##	48	52	21	79	100	-
Family First ##	63.5	36.5	46	54	40.5	59.5
CDP##	16	84	29.5	70.5	10.5	89.5
Independent/Other##	46	54	82.5	17.5	37	63

## Results from sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.

Note: Pauline Hanson's One Nation Party did not stand candidates for the Legislative Assembly at the December 14, 1996 election.

Sample: 684 electors

Interviewed September - October 2005

4% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.

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