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ALP Would Win Election As Support For Major Parties Falls Slightly Amidst Anti-Terror Debate
In late October, following controversy surrounding the Government’s proposed anti-terrorism legislation, primary support for the L-NP Government fell 0.5% to 39% which is 7.4% below the L-NP result at the October 2004 Federal election. The ALP, which supported the new terrorism legislation after amendments, also suffered a fall in support of 0.5%, to 41%, which is 3.4% above the ALP result at the Federal election. Had a Federal Election been held in mid-October, the ALP would have won, the latest Morgan Poll finds. If preferences of minor parties were allocated as they were at the 2004 Federal election (ALP — 60.5%, L-NP — 39.5%) the ‘two-party’ preferred vote would be unchanged from early October, L-NP — 47% and ALP — 53%. Among the minor parties, support for the Greens was 9.5% (up 0.5%), Australian Democrats 2.5% (up 0.5%), Family First 2% (unchanged), One Nation 1% (down 0.5%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 5% (up 0.5%). Gary Morgan says: “The big issue over the survey period was the anti-terrorism legislation. We saw the impact the Industrial Relations reforms had on voting intentions in early October however with both the L-NP and the ALP supporting the new anti-terror laws, both parties lost slight support to the minor parties. If an election had been held in late October, the ALP would have won.” During the period: • Controversy surrounded the Federal Government’s proposed anti-terrorism laws which included a shoot to kill provision for Police and would allow Police to detain terrorism suspects for up to two weeks without charge. • Legal Experts and the ALP Opposition questioned whether the drafted anti-terrorism bill was constitutional and whether it violated human rights laws. Liberal MP Petro Georgiou also asked for amendments to the bill. The bill was redrafted. • John Howard said Australia must be prepared for a bird flu pandemic but must not panic. Health Minister Tony Abbott suggested that a mass vaccination program might be considered for all Australians if a bird flu vaccine is developed. • Federal Health Minister Tony Abbott called for mental health responsibilities to be transferred from the States to the Commonwealth following the release of a report which was critical of the current system. • The Singapore Government rejected the Australian Government’s pleas for leniency for convicted Australian heroine smuggler, Nguyen Tuong Van, who faces the death penalty in Singapore . • Labor Senator John Faulkner attacked the ALP’s factional system and called for reforms to the Party. • Freight remained stuck on Australian docks following the introduction of a new computer system by customs. Kim Beazley said the backlog was costing the New South Wales economy $15 million a week. • Debate continued surrounding the Government’s proposed Industrial Relations reforms. • John Howard said he would consider Labor suggestions of a different site for a proposed nuclear waste facility in the Northern Territory . Legislation went before Parliament removing the Northern Territory ’s right to oppose the facility. On the question of who the electorate thinks will win the next Federal Election, the L-NP leads the ALP by 33.5% (down 8%). Now 60% (down 5%) of electors think the L-NP will win the Federal Election while 26.5% (up 3%) think the ALP will win (13.5% can’t say). This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekends of October 22/23 & 29/30, 2005 , with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,917 electors. Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today - which party would receive your first preference?” Of all electors surveyed, 5.5% (up 1%) did not name a party. For further information:
THINK WILL WIN Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"
FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)
Morgan Poll sampling tolerance: The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution 5.5% (up 1%) did not name a party. View Federal Voting Intention Trend
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