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The first Morgan Poll taken since eighteen Australians were arrested on terrorism-related offences (Surveyed last weekend — November 12/13, 2005) shows the L-NP well in front at 43.5% (up 5% in a week) and ALP support falling 5% to 38%.

With preferences of minor parties allocated as they were at the 2004 Federal Election (ALP — 60.5%, L-NP — 39.5%) the ‘two-party’ preferred vote is L-NP — 51%, ALP — 49%. Had an Election been held in mid-November the L-NP would have won with minor party preferences, the latest Morgan Poll finds.

Gary Morgan says:

“The introduction of anti-terrorism laws and the subsequent terrorism-related arrests across Australia have overshadowed the continued controversy surrounding the Government’s proposed Industrial Relations (IR) reforms.

“The latest Morgan Poll taken after the terrorist arrests showed the L-NP would have won a close Federal Election.”

The Morgan Poll was conducted over the last two weekends (November 5/6 & 12/13, 2005) and showed dramatic changes in Voting Intention in response to major events. On the weekend of November 5/6, 2005 the Morgan Poll showed the highest support for the ALP since the last Federal Election. The Two-Party preferred vote was ALP — 54% (up 1%), L-NP — 46% (down 1%). In the week prior to the November 5/6 Morgan Poll the following occurred;

• The Howard Government introduced changes to existing anti-terrorism legislation on November 2. Citing urgent briefings from the nation’s police and security agencies, the legislation was passed in both Houses of Parliament - with Labor Party support - by the following day;

• The Prime Minister announced he had received briefings outlining a specific threat of terrorist action in Australia , but denied that arrests were imminent;

• The Howard Government’s Industrial Relations legislation was introduced to Parliament on the same day attracting criticism of the timing of the dual introductions;

• Further anti-terrorism legislation agreed to by State and Territory leaders was introduced on November 3. Concerns that some of the provisions of the legislation might unreasonably restrict civil liberties were raised across the political spectrum and elements of the bill were set aside for consideration by a Senate Committee;

• Debate about the merits of the Industrial Relations legislation continued with the Business Council of Australia joining the Howard Government in running advertisements in favour of reform;

• Allegations were made in a United Nations report that the Australian Wheat Board (AWB) had paid bribes to companies which fed monies back to the Saddam Hussein regime in Iraq . An inquiry into certain aspects of the payments was announced;

Special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research in which respondents gave their reason for voting was conducted on November 5/6, 2005 (before a number of Australians were arrested on terrorism-related offences) and showed the Government’s proposed Industrial Relations reforms to be an influencing factor for many electors.

Many ALP Supporters continued to be dissatisfied with the Government’s proposed Industrial Relations reforms, with comments such as: “I have always been a Liberal voter, but I am fed up to the back teeth — they are not looking after workers,” “The Government’s Industrial Relations policy will make us a third world country,” “I’m not happy with the new guidelines with the workplace awards. I’d be more vulnerable in a smaller company with what they are trying to push” and “I don’t agree with the contracts they are trying to force upon Australians."

Some ALP supporters were vocal about their dislike of the Howard Government, commenting: “I think John Howard has a bit too much power at the moment. He is going solo — not good,” “Mr Howard is getting a bit too big for his breeches,” “I really hate John Howard, what he stands for and what he is doing to the country."

Many L-NP supporters mentioned economic management and workplace reforms as reasons for supporting for the Government, with comments such as: “I like the Liberals. They took a hard job and turned it around economically,” “The Liberals may be better. The workers may get 40 hours back,” “They can count the till,” “The state of the economy is strong, low interest rates and inflation” and “I support the Industrial Relations reforms."

L-NP supporters were unimpressed with the Labor Party and leader Kim Beazley, saying: “I don’t like Kim Beazley — he’s smarmy, he big notes himself and argues for the sake of arguing”, “Labor is getting a lot of adverse publicity. They behave like kids”, “I am worried about the economy if Labor got in”, “ Australia would not be credible in the world under Labor” and “The ALP is a pack of a***, they keep promising things because they know they won’t get in."

However, in the week following this swing to the Labor Party;

• Eighteen Australians were arrested in a series of raids across NSW and Victoria amid mass media coverage and charged with terrorism-related offences;

• Criticism of proposed anti-terrorism legislation continued in particular from the Government’s backbenches over sections relating to sedition;

• The Industrial Relations legislation was vigorously debated in the House of Representatives and passed on November 9 th ; the results of a Senate vote on the legislation remain to be seen;

• November 11th saw Remembrance Day marked around the Nation without a living Australian World War I veteran. It also saw the 30 year anniversary of the dismissal of the Whitlam Government in 1975;

• Debate continued within and without of Federal Parliament on the possible lifting of the ban on abortion drug RU-486;

• Riots continued in the suburbs of Paris and other major cities in France . Rioters were largely young, disaffected, North African and African migrants. Commentators in Australia linked this unrest with the recent arrests of alleged terrorists and asked questions about the success of government policies integrating migrant communities within the Australian community;

• A bipartisan motion passed both Houses of Federal Parliament asking the Singapore Government for clemency for convicted Australian drug smuggler Nguyen Tuong Van awaiting execution.

The Morgan Poll taken last weekend (November 12/13, 2005) saw the swing against the L-NP reversed, with the two party preferred vote at L-NP — 51% (up 5% in a week), ALP — 49% (down 5%).

In the same week support for the Greens was 9% (down 0.5%), Australian Democrats 1.5% (unchanged), Family First 2% (unchanged), One Nation 0% (down 1%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 6% (up 1.5%).

On the question of who the electorate thinks will win the next Federal Election, the L-NP leads the ALP by 33.5% (up 11%). Now 61% (up 6%) of electors think the L-NP will win the Federal Election while 27.5% (down 5%) think the ALP will win (11.5% can’t say).

This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekends of November 5/6, 2005, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 866 electors and November 12/13, 2005,with an Australia-wide cross-section of 966 electors. Electors were asked: “If a Federal Election for the House of Representatives were being held today - which party would receive your first preference?” Of all electors surveyed on November 5/6, 2005, 4.5% (down 1%) did not name a party. Of all electors surveyed on November 12/13, 2005, 5% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.

For further information:

THINK WILL WIN

Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

Morgan Poll sampling tolerance:

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

#Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.

Sample: 866 electors interviewed face-to-face on November 5/6, 2005 - 4.5% (down 1%) did not name a party.
Sample: 966 electors interviewed face-to-face on November 12/13, 2005 - 5% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.

View Federal Voting Intention Trend

Finding No. 3933 is taken from Computer Report No. 2074

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