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Employees in Australia and New Zealand continue to be optimistic about their jobs, with 83% (up 4% since December 2004) of employed Australians and 84% (down 1%) of employed New Zealanders saying they feel confident that their present job is safe, the latest Morgan Poll finds.

Only 15% (down 4%) of Australians and 13% (unchanged) of New Zealanders believe there is a chance of unemployment (2% in Australia and 3% in New Zealand were unable to say).

Gary Morgan says:

“Despite the negative publicity surrounding the Government’s proposed Industrial Relations reforms, an increased proportion of employed Australians (up 4% to 83%) believe their present job is safe. This is the highest figure recorded since Roy Morgan Research began polling this issue in 1975.

“In New Zealand the story is also positive, with 84% of employed people confident that their job is safe”.

Although there has been an increase in the proportion of Australians who believe the number of unemployed will increase in the next twelve months, the outlook for unemployment at a national level remains relatively optimistic. Three-in-five Australians (60%, down 4%) believe the number of unemployed will fall or stay the same in 2006 (21% fall, 39% stay the same/unable to say) while those who expect unemployment to rise is up 4% to 40%.

In New Zealand , confidence in employment fell sharply from 2004. Forty-four percent (up a substantial 15%) of New Zealanders expect unemployment will rise, while 56% believe it will fall or stay the same in 2005 (19% fall, 37% stay the same/unable to say).

When respondents employed full or part time were asked “If you became unemployed, do you think you’d be able to find a new job fairly quickly — or do you think it might take longer?”, 62% (down 5%) of Australians and 71% (up 2%) of New Zealanders said they felt they would find a new job quickly. Thirty-four percent (up 6%) of Australians thought it might take longer to find a job, compared with 23% (down 1%) of New Zealanders.

These findings come from a special Morgan Poll conducted in Australia and New Zealand on employment in the year ahead.

For the Australian survey, an Australia-wide cross-section of 653 men and women aged 14 or over were interviewed by telephone on November 2/3, 2005. For the New Zealand survey, a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 1,094 men and women aged 14 or over were interviewed by telephone on November 15-27, 2005.

For further information:

Gary Morgan	Office (03) 9224 5213	Mobile 0411 129 094	Home (03) 9419 3242
Michele Levine	Office (03) 9224 5215	Mobile 0411 129 093	Home (03) 9817 3066

1. Unemployment

Respondents were first asked: “In the next 12 months, do you expect the number of unemployed in Australia (New Zealand) to increase a lot, to increase slightly, remain the same, fall slightly, or fall a lot?”

Two-in-five Australians (up 4% to 40%) expect unemployment to increase in the next twelve months, 39% (down 1%) believe there will be no change and 21% (down 3%) expect unemployment to fall.

In New Zealand , 44% (up 15% since December 2004) expect unemployment to increase, while 37% (down 5%) expect there will be no change and 19% (down 10%) expect it to fall.

Expect Unemployment to . . .	Increase	Fall	No change/ Can't say
	%	%	%
Australia:
1975	64	21	15
1976	60	19	21
1977	64	20	16
1978	73	10	17
1979	69	10	21
1980	67	11	22
Dec '82	88	5	7
Oct '83	54	23	23
Nov '84	44	30	26
Nov '85	49	27	24
Nov '86	63	13	24
Dec '87	59	16	25
Nov '88	48	22	30
Nov '89	50	18	32
Nov '90	81	10	9
Aug '91	65	17	18
Nov '91	62	22	16
Jul '92	54	24	22
Nov '92	55	22	23
Nov '93	44	27	29
Nov '94	32	42	26
Nov '95	49	23	28
Jul '97	47	25	28
Nov '97	45	26	29
Nov '98	53	20	27
Nov '99	38	29	33
Dec 2000	50	20	30
Dec 2001	60	16	24
Dec 2002	44	19	37
Dec 2003	39	22	39
Dec 2004	36	24	40
Nov 2005	40	21	39
New Zealand:
Aug '91	88	6	6
Nov '91	76	11	13
Nov '92	52	25	23
Nov '93	38	33	29
Nov '98	68	14	18
Nov '99	32	31	37
Dec 2000	33	30	37
Dec 2001	36	27	37
Dec 2002	37	31	32
Dec 2003	35	28	37
Dec 2004	29	29	42
Nov 2005	44	19	37

2. Job Security in Australia and New Zealand

Those respondents surveyed who work full-time or part-time were then asked: “Do you think your present job is safe, or do you think there's a chance you may become unemployed?”

Over four-in-five Australians (up 4% to 83%) who work full or part-time believe their present job is safe, while 15% (down 4%) believe there is a chance they may become unemployed and 2% (unchanged) don’t know.

In New Zealand , 84% (down 1% since December 2004) of workers believe their jobs are safe, while 13% (unchanged) believe there is a chance they may become unemployed and 3% (up 1%) don't know.

	Present	Chance of	Don't
Job Security	job safe	unemployment	know
	%	%	%
Australia:
1975	76	21	3
1976	78	17	5
1977	82	15	3
1978	79	19	2
1979	77	20	3
1980	73	23	4
Dec '82	72	25	3
Oct '83	79	18	3
Nov '84	82	17	1
Nov '85	79	18	3
Nov '86	80	17	3
Dec '87	80	18	2
Nov '88	81	18	1
Nov '89	82	17	1
Nov '90	70	28	2
Aug '91	70	28	2
Nov '91	69	27	4
Jul '92	69	29	2
Nov '92	65	32	3
Nov '93	73	25	2
Nov '94	74	22	4
Nov '95	74	23	3
Jul '97	73	24	3
Nov '97	77	21	2
Nov '98	81	16	3
Nov '99	74	25	1
Dec 2000	75	20	5
Dec 2001	75	22	3
Dec 2002	79	20	1
Dec 2003	78	20	2
Dec 2004	79	19	2
Nov 2005	83	15	2
New Zealand:
Aug '91	54	41	5
Nov '91	60	36	4
Nov '92	66	29	5
Nov '98	73	20	7
Nov '99	76	21	3
Dec 2000	80	17	3
Dec 2001	84	15	1
Dec 2002	81	14	5
Dec 2003	84	14	2
Dec 2004	85	13	2
Nov 2005	84	13	3

3. Finding a New Job If Unemployed

Those surveyed who work full-time or part-time were also asked: “If you became unemployed , do you think you'd be able to find a new job fairly quickly - or do you think it might take longer?”

In Australia, 62% (down 5%, since December 2004 ) of workers think that if they became unemployed they would be able to find a new job fairly quickly, while 34% (up 6%) believe it might take longer to find a new job and 4% (down 1%) either wouldn’t look for a new job or couldn’t say.

Seventy-one percent of New Zealander workers (up 2% since December 2004) think they would be able to find a new job fairly quickly, while 23% (down 1%) believe it might take longer and 6% (down 1%) either wouldn’t look for a new job or couldn’t say.

Finding a New Job if Unemployed	New job found quickly	May take longer	Wouldn't look/ Don't know
	%	%	%
Australia:
1975	57	33	10
1976	57	33	10
1977	55	35	10
1978	50	41	9
1979	54	36	10
1980	50	39	11
Dec '82	44	46	10
Oct '83	51	41	8
Nov '84	61	33	7
Nov '85	58	34	8
Nov '86	61	30	9
Dec '87	65	30	5
Nov '88	69	26	5
Nov '89	68	26	6
Nov '90	49	45	6
Aug '91	39	53	8
Nov '91	39	53	8
Jul '92	38	53	9
Nov '92	39	54	7
Nov '93	50	43	7
Nov '94	60	33	7
Nov '95	58	32	10
Jul '97	52	42	6
Nov '97	58	36	6
Nov '98	55	38	7
Nov '99	63	30	7
Dec 2000	59	33	8
Dec 2001	54	39	7
Dec 2002	66	29	5
Dec 2003	64	33	3
Dec 2004	67	28	5
Nov 2005	62	34	4
New Zealand:
Aug '91	30	58	12
Nov '91	35	54	11
Nov '92	39	50	11
Nov '98	50	40	10
Nov '99	64	29	7
Dec 2000	51	39	10
Dec 2001	58	31	11
Dec 2002	67	26	7
Dec 2003	66	28	6
Dec 2004	69	24	7
Nov 2005	71	23	6

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