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In late-November, with a small increase in Consumer Confidence, support for the NZ Labour Party was 39%, up 1.5% since mid-November but 2.1% below the Labour result at the September 2005 General Election. Support for the National Party was 40.5% (up 0.5%) and 1.4% above the National result at the General Election the latest Morgan Poll finds.

Among the other minor parties, support for Jim Anderton’s Progressive Party was 1% (up 0.5%), the Green Party 8.5% (up 1.5%), New Zealand First 5.5% (down 1.5%), United Future New Zealand 2% (down 1%), the Maori Party 1% (down 1%), ACT New Zealand 1.5% (down 0.5%), and Other Parties 1% (unchanged).

This latest Morgan Poll on Voting Intention was conducted in New Zealand from November 15 - 27, 2005, with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 946 electors. Electors were asked ‘If an election were held today which party would receive your party vote?’ Of electors who said they were likely to vote (93%), 2% were undecided.

The following table compares the latest NZ Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the September 17, 2005 General Election.

VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY

PRIMARY VOTE	Labour	National	Progressive Party	NZ First	Green Party	United Future	Maori Party*	ACT NZ	Other
	%	%		%	%	%	%	%	%
General Election, July 27, 2002	41.3	20.9	1.7	10.4	7	6.7	n/a	7.1	6.6
General Election, September 17, 2005	41.1	39.1	1.16	5.72	5.3	2.67	2.12	1.51	2.48
MORGAN POLL
September 20 — October 2, 2005	36.5	41.5	1	4.5	9	3	1	1.5	3
October 4 - 16, 2005	39	40.5	1	5	7	3.5	2	1.5	0.5
October 18 - 31, 2005	37.5	40	0.5	6	9	3.5	1	1	1.5
November 1 - 14, 2005	37.5	40	0.5	7	7	3	2	2	1
November 15 - 27, 2005	39	40.5	1	5.5	8.5	2	1	1.5	1

* The Maori Party was launched in July 2004

The Morgan Poll was the most accurate in predicting the small margin between the two major parties (a Labour lead of 1.5%) for the September 2005 General Election.

For further information:

Gary Morgan	Office (03) 9224 5213	Mobile 0411 129 094	Home (03) 9419 3242
Michele Levine	Office (03) 9224 5215	Mobile 0411 129 093	Home (03) 9817 3066

Morgan Poll sampling tolerance:

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample size	Percentage estimate
	25-75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
1000	Â ± 3	Â ± 2	Â ± 1½

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY

Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

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