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In mid-December, primary support for the L-NP Government rose 3% to 38.5% which is 7.9% below the L-NP result at the October 2004 Federal election. Primary support for the ALP was down 3.5% to 42% - 4.4% above the ALP result at the 2004 Federal Election. Had a Federal Election been held in mid-December, the ALP would have won with, the latest Morgan Poll finds.

If preferences of minor parties were allocated as they were at the 2004 Federal Election (ALP — 60.5%, L-NP — 39.5%) the ‘two-party’ preferred vote would be ALP - 54% and L-NP - 46%.

Among the minor parties, support for The Greens was 10% (up 1%), Australian Democrats 2% (unchanged), Family First 2.5% (up 0.5%), One Nation 1% (down 0.5%) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 4% (down 0.5%).

On the important question of who the electorate thinks will win the next Federal Election, now 54.5% (up 4.5%) think the L-NP will win, 33% (down 3.5%) think the ALP will win and 12.5% can’t say.

Gary Morgan says:

“With Industrial Relations and Voluntary Student Unionism no longer such hot topics, primary support for the L-NP has increased (up 3% to 38.5%), and the ‘two-party’ preferred vote has levelled out with the ALP still ahead (ALP — 54%, L-NP — 46%).

“During this period the Howard Government was criticised for not placing further pressure on the Singapore Government to prevent the execution of Van Nguyen. This did not have a negative effect on support for the Government. A Morgan Poll taken after the hanging showing the majority of Australians believe Van Nguyen should have been hanged.

“The next Morgan Poll will measure the effect on voting intention of the riots in Sydney .”

During the period:

•  Convicted drug trafficker, Van Nguyen, was hanged in Singapore on December 2, despite pressure by the Federal Government and civil rights movements to reduce the sentence.

•  The Senate passed the Federal Government's Industrial Relations bill.

•  The Voluntary Student Unionism (VSU) legislation also passed through the Senate after Family First Senator Steve Fielding voted in favour of the bill. Nationals Senator Barnaby Joyce crossed the floor to vote against the Coalition.

•  Foreign Affairs Minister Alexander Downer denied suggestions by the Opposition that the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade was involved in arranging kickbacks to sell Australian wheat overseas.

Special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research in which respondents gave their reason for voting was conducted on December 3/4, 2005.

L-NP supporters were typically satisfied with the performance of the Government, mentioning: “I like their policies on the economy. Industrial relations and Terrorism”, “I agree with their policies — attitudes to unionism”, “I think they are more for the individual and reward hardworking Australians”, “I approve of John Howard’s foreign policy. He is keeping Australia safe. We need to feel safe” and “John Howard is doing a good job. The Opposition are very weak. He is an honest and broad thinking and not scared to make a hard decision”.

Other Liberal Party supporters mentioned a dislike of Unions as a reason for supporting the L-NP, saying: “Liberals have better things to offer than Labor. Labor is too governed by the Unions”, “I’ve always voted Liberal — they don’t like Unions” and “Labor was OK in the 50’s when Unions first started. Now Unions dominate Labor and try to undermine the Government”.

Labor Party supporters continued to be dissatisfied with the Government’s proposed Industrial Relations reforms, with comments such as: “Young Johnny is taking over the country with the wrong Industrial Relations laws. Taking away what’s been fought for 30 years!”, “The workplace relations act is appalling”, “Workplace agreements — I don’t like it. If worker sand unions don’t agree with it then the agreements aren’t working for the right people”, “I don’t like the new rules the Government is introducing. How can a person bargain for a job against an employer” and “I will vote to the ALP for the first time because of the new Industrial Relations laws introduced. This will hurt our living standards even further”.

Other ALP supporters voiced a dislike of John Howard and the Liberal Party, saying: “I don’t think Howard is looking after the people. He’s been there too long”, “John Howard is on his way to messing up this country by not listening to the people”, “There is too much power and control by one man at the moment” and “John Howard is a bloody liar!”.

This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekends of December 3/4 and 10/11, 2005, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,984 electors. Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today - which party would receive your first preference?” Of all electors surveyed, a low 4% (unchanged) did not name a party.

For further information:

Gary Morgan	Office (03) 9224 5213	Mobile 0411 129 094	Home (03) 9419 3242
Michele Levine	Office (03) 9224 5215	Mobile 0411 129 093	Home (03) 9817 3066

THINK WILL WIN

Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"

Think Will Win	L-NP	ALP	Can't Say
	%	%	%
October 30/31 & November 6/7, 2004	56	28	16
November 13/14 & 20/21, 2004	55.5	30	14.5
November 27/28 & December 4/5, 2004	63.5	23	13.5
December 11/12 & 18/19, 2004	64	23.5	12.5
January 8/9 & 15/16, 2005	69.5	19.5	11
January 22/23 & 29/30, 2005	67	21.5	11.5
February 5/6 & 12/13, 2005	67	21.5	11.5
February 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	63.5	23.5	13
March 5/6, 2005	57	31	12
March 12/13, 2005	60	27.5	12.5
March 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	57.5	28	14.5
April 2/3 & 9/10, 2005	57.5	28	14.5
April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005	55	31.5	13.5
April 30/May 1 & May 7/8, 2005	59	29	12
May 14/15, 2005	63.5	23.5	13
May 21/22 & 28/29, 2005	59.5	27	13.5
June 4/5 & 11/12, 2005	61	27	12
June 18/19 & 25/26, 2005	59.5	27	13.5
July 2/3 & 9/10, 2005	60	27	13
July 16/17 & 23/24, 2005	61.5	26	12.5
July 30/31 & August 6/7, 2005	61.5	24.5	14
August 13/14 & 20/21, 2005	61	24.5	14.5
August 27/28 & September 3/4, 2005	64	23.5	12.5
September 10/11, 2005	60.5	27	12.5
September 17/18, 2005	66	21.5	12.5
September 24/25 & October 1/2, 2005	65	24	11
October 8/9 & 15/16, 2005	65	23.5	11.5
October 22/23 & 29/30, 2005	60	26.5	13.5
November 5/6, 2005	55	32.5	12.5
November 12/13, 2005	61	27.5	11.5
November 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	50	36.5	13.5
December 3/4 & 10/11, 2005	54.5	33	12.5

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

PRIMARY VOTE	L-NP	ALP	Aust. Dem.	The Greens	Family First	One Nation	Ind./ Others
Election March 2, 1996	47.3 (8.6)	38.8	6.8	1.7	*	N/A	5.4
Election October 3, 1998 1	39.5 (5.3)	40.1	5.1	2.1	*	8.5	4.7
Election November 10, 2001	43 (5.6)	37.8	5.4	4.4	*	4.3	5.1
Election October 9, 2004	46.4 (5.9)	37.6	1.2	7.2	2	1.2	4.4
MORGAN POLL
Oct 30/31 & Nov 6/7, 2004	44.5 (2.5)	39.5	2	8.5	2	1	2.5
Nov 13/14 & 20/21, 2004	44 (3)	39	2	8.5	1.5	1	4
Nov 27/28 & Dec 4/5, 2004	46.5 (2.5)	36	1.5	9	2.5	1	3.5
Dec 11/12 & 18/19, 2004	45.5 (3)	36.5	1.5	9.5	2	1.5	3.5
Jan 8/9 & 15/16, 2005	47 (3.5)	37	1.5	7.5	2	1	4
Jan 22/23 & 29/30, 2005	45 (2.5)	38	2	8	2	1.5	3.5
Feb 5/6 & 12/13, 2005	45 (2.5)	37.5	2	9	2	1	3.5
Feb 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	46 (2.5)	38.5	2	7.5	1	0.5	4.5
Mar 5/6, 2005	42 (2.5)	43	1.5	7	2.5	1	3
Mar 12/13, 2005	44.5 (2.5)	37	1	10	2.5	1	4
Mar 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	44 (2.5)	39	1.5	8	2	1	4.5
Apr 2/3 & 9/10, 2005	40.5 (1.5)	43	1.5	8	2	1.5	3.5
April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005	42 (2)	40	2	8.5	1.5	1	5
April 30/May 1 & May 7/8, 2005	42(2.5)	42.5	1.5	8	1.5	1	3.5
May 14/15, 2005	43(1.5)	41	1.5	8	2	0.5	4
May 21/22 & 28/29, 2005	45 (2)	39	1.5	7.5	1.5	0.5	5
June 4/5 & 11/12, 2005	43.5 (1.5)	39.5	1.5	7.5	2	1.5	4.5
June 18/19 & 25/26, 2005	42 (2.5)	39.5	2	9	2.5	1	4
July 2/3 & 9/10, 2005	42.5 (2)	40.5	1.5	7.5	2.5	1	4.5
July 16/17 & 23/24, 2005	41.5 (2.5)	38.5	2.5	8	1.5	2	6
July 30/31 & August 6/7, 2005	41.5 (4)	42	2	7.5	2	1	4
August 13/14 & 20/21, 2005	39 (2.5)	41.5	2	8	3	1.5	5
August 27/28 & September 3/4	44 (3.5)	37	1.5	8.5	3	1	5
September 10/11, 2005	39.5 (3)	41.5	1.5	7	3	0.5	7
September 17/18, 2005	44 (2.5)	34.5	2.5	10	2	1.5	5.5
September 24/25 & October 1/2, 2005	42 (3.5)	38.5	2.5	9	2	1.5	4.5
October 8/9 & 15/16, 2005	39.5 (2.5)	41.5	2	9	2	1.5	4.5
October 22/23 & 29/30, 2005	39 (3.5)	41	2.5	9.5	2	1	5
November 5/6, 2005	38.5 (3)	43	1.5	9.5	2	1	4.5
November 12/13, 2005	43.5 (3)	38	1.5	9	2	-	6
November 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	35.5 (2.5)	45.5	2	9	2	1.5	4.5
December 3/4 & 10/11, 2005	38.5 (2.5)	42	2	10	2.5	1	4
Note: National Party results are in brackets # Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution *The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004 1 October 3, 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle.

Morgan Poll sampling tolerance:

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample size	Percentage estimate
	25-75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
1000	Â ± 3	Â ± 2	Â ± 1½

# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution

Sample: 1,984 electors interviewed face-to-face on December 3/4 & 10/11, 2005 - 4% (unchanged) did not name a party.

View Federal Voting Intention Trend

Finding No. 3951 is taken from Computer Report No. 2078

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