Australian Consumer Confidence Continues To Fall, Down 8.9 Points To 105.4
| Article No. 416 -
October 08, 2005 |
In October, the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating fell to 105.4, down 8.9 points from 114.3 in September. This is the lowest level since directly after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on the New York World Trade Centre (102.3 points) .
The latest result is 23.5 points lower than a year ago and 0.7 points lower than the 30 year October average of 106.1.
Gary Morgan says:
“This fall in Consumer Confidence has been driven largely by continued high petrol prices and speculation about increases in the price of consumables — such as dairy products — with claims that some companies can’t absorb the increased costs caused by the high price of fuel.
“Pessimism now outweighs optimism for the Australian Economy. More Australians now expect bad economic times than good times for Australia in the coming 12 months and the next five years.”
The main driver of this decrease in consumer confidence is people’s expectations of economic conditions in Australia as a whole over the coming year. Thirty nine percent (up 11%) in October expect Australia to experience bad economic conditions over the coming year, with 28% (down 8%) expecting good economic times over the same period.
The proportion of Australians expecting good economic times over the next five years fell 5% to 25%. There was also an increase in the proportion of Australians expecting bad economic times, up 4% to 29%.
Australians’ attitude to their own financial situation and prospects is also negative, with 32% (unchanged) of Australians saying their personal financial situation is better now than it was last year, and 32% (up 2%) saying they are now worse off. Looking ahead, 39% (unchanged) expect to be better off financially this time next year, while 26% (up 5%) expect to be worse off.
The question on whether now is a good time to buy also experienced a large net decrease in confidence, with 50% (down 2% since September, and down 8% since October 2004) of Australians saying now is a good time to buy major household items, such as electrical appliances or furniture and 21% (up 7%) saying now is a bad time to buy major household items.
For further information:
|
Gary Morgan |
Office (03) 9224 5213 |
Mobile 0411 129 094 |
Home (03) 9419 3242 |
|
Michele Levine |
Office (03) 9224 5215 |
Mobile 0411 129 093 |
Home (03) 9817 3066 |
The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,033 face-to-face interviews conducted Australia-wide on the weekend of September 3/4, 2005.
|
Monthly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating Figures |
|
Year |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Yearly
Average |
|
1973 |
|
|
119.2 |
|
|
117.0 |
|
|
108.4 |
|
|
103.8 |
112.1 |
|
1974 |
|
|
103.2 |
|
|
95.6 |
|
|
90.6 |
|
|
92.2 |
95.4 |
|
1975 |
|
|
114.0 |
|
|
104.2 |
|
|
100.8 |
|
|
103.0 |
105.5 |
|
1976 |
113.6 |
|
107.0 |
110.2 |
|
107.0 |
105.6 |
|
108.0 |
108.8 |
101.2 |
|
107.7 |
|
1977 |
104.2 |
|
98.6 |
101.6 |
|
103.8 |
99.4 |
|
105.0 |
104.4 |
109.4 |
|
103.3 |
|
1978 |
119.2 |
|
114.8 |
110.8 |
|
109.6 |
101.6 |
|
91.2 |
104.4 |
103.6 |
|
106.9 |
|
1979 |
110.2 |
|
106.2 |
109.4 |
|
92.6 |
90.2 |
|
99.4 |
97.6 |
98.8 |
|
100.6 |
|
1980 |
98.8 |
|
100.8 |
97.4 |
|
101.6 |
98.2 |
|
104.4 |
109.8 |
106.4 |
|
102.2 |
|
1981 |
113.4 |
|
111.8 |
101.8 |
|
100.8 |
95.0 |
|
92.4 |
98.2 |
98.0 |
|
101.4 |
|
1982 |
92.4 |
|
91.8 |
93.6 |
|
92.2 |
80.4 |
|
84.6 |
81.2 |
75.2 |
|
86.4 |
|
1983 |
87.8 |
|
97.4 |
96.0 |
|
95.4 |
98.2 |
|
100.6 |
106.4 |
113.2 |
|
99.4 |
|
1984 |
124.6 |
|
120.8 |
120.8 |
|
115.6 |
116.6 |
|
118.2 |
117.8 |
114.6 |
|
118.6 |
|
1985 |
114.8 |
|
110.2 |
99.4 |
|
98.0 |
100.8 |
|
106.8 |
107.8 |
94.8 |
|
104.1 |
|
1986 |
105.4 |
|
103.8 |
94.6 |
94.8 |
91.6 |
79.8 |
79.8 |
78.8 |
89.8 |
85.6 |
88.8 |
90.3 |
|
1987 |
90.4 |
88.0 |
86.8 |
90.8 |
91.8 |
93.4 |
98.6 |
96.4 |
94.8 |
104.0 |
87.2 |
93.0 |
92.9 |
|
1988 |
100.4 |
98.8 |
103.6 |
106.2 |
104.0 |
104.0 |
107.6 |
108.2 |
112.4 |
108.8 |
104.2 |
105.8 |
105.3 |
|
1989 |
105.0 |
94.6 |
88.4 |
88.4 |
87.4 |
72.8 |
73.0 |
78.8 |
82.0 |
79.0 |
81.0 |
80.0 |
84.2 |
|
1990 |
101.6 |
95.6 |
83.4 |
88.3 |
84.7 |
83.1 |
79.6 |
83.9 |
75.6 |
71.4 |
73.1 |
71.3 |
82.6 |
|
1991 |
78.5 |
85.4 |
85.0 |
87.2 |
87.7 |
88.6 |
98.1 |
95.2 |
93.3 |
95.8 |
91.1 |
83.0 |
89.1 |
|
1992 |
93.6 |
95.9 |
96.2 |
105.4 |
101.6 |
97.7 |
95.4 |
96.9 |
96.8 |
101.2 |
93.6 |
92.9 |
97.3 |
|
1993 |
100.8 |
100.4 |
105.9 |
102.3 |
102.2 |
96.2 |
96.6 |
100.8 |
90.2 |
103.5 |
111.9 |
108.5 |
101.6 |
|
1994 |
120.5 |
127.5 |
125.7 |
127.7 |
125.2 |
128.0 |
127.6 |
123.8 |
123.6 |
124.6 |
118.1 |
118.0 |
124.2 |
|
1995 |
112.3 |
112.4 |
113.9 |
114.7 |
112.0 |
112.4 |
110.2 |
115.5 |
111.7 |
116.2 |
114.3 |
111.9 |
113.1 |
|
1996 |
116.7 |
119.1 |
123.7 |
121.5 |
118.8 |
117.8 |
112.3 |
114.4 |
113.2 |
111.3 |
113.4 |
113.2 |
116.3 |
|
1997 |
119.2 |
115.1 |
116.2 |
112.5 |
114.2 |
115.5 |
110.7 |
111.7 |
112.4 |
112.8 |
111.6 |
110.6 |
113.5 |
|
1998 |
117.8 |
116.0 |
114.9 |
110.2 |
114.4 |
109.8 |
107.6 |
111.1 |
111.0 |
113.9 |
114.2 |
114.7 |
112.8 |
|
1999 |
122.1 |
121.8 |
122.5 |
119.6 |
122.5 |
122.2 |
118.2 |
122.8 |
122.3 |
119.6 |
122.8 |
122.2 |
121.6 |
|
2000 |
122.3 |
119.9 |
112.9 |
116.6 |
112.0 |
108.7 |
114.8 |
119.1 |
115.8 |
115.6 |
110.3 |
112.3 |
115.0 |
|
2001 |
119.9 |
109.5 |
106.2 |
103.6 |
107.4 |
108.6 |
115.3 |
116.4 |
120.9* |
106.8 |
109.4 |
113.3 |
111.4 |
|
2002 |
124.8 |
123.0 |
122.3 |
123.2 |
124.0 |
116.4 |
123.4 |
119.9 |
122.1 |
117.2 |
114.0 |
109.6 |
120.0 |
|
2003 |
122.5 |
113.4 |
109.9 |
120.8 |
127.0 |
122.4 |
123.2 |
122.4 |
123.2 |
121.2 |
124.2 |
120.4 |
120.9 |
| 2004 |
126.0 |
126.8 |
130.4 |
124.4 |
125.0 |
125.6 |
128.9 |
127.6 |
126 |
128.9 |
124.8 |
125.5 |
126.7 |
| 2005 |
133.2 |
132.0 |
121.5 |
119.4 |
119.5 |
118.8 |
116.8 |
120.6 |
114.3 |
105.4 |
|
|
120.2 |
|
|
|
Monthly
Average |
110.4 |
110.3 |
108.2 |
107.3 |
108.8 |
105.1 |
104.1 |
108.3 |
104.6 |
106.1 |
104.1 |
104.0 |
106.1 |
* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for September 15/16, 2001, conducted by telephone, was 102.3. |
Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating*
for the component questions over the more recent surveys are as follows: |
|
2004 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Interviews |
|
1142 |
1038 |
1231 |
1160 |
1092 |
1246 |
1157 |
967 |
1187 |
1110 |
1120 |
|
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year? |
|
Over the past year |
better off |
|
33 |
34 |
33 |
33 |
35 |
36 |
35 |
38 |
35 |
34 |
36 |
|
|
worse off |
|
29 |
25 |
26 |
27 |
26 |
23 |
27 |
23 |
25 |
21 |
23 |
|
QUESTION 1 difference |
|
4 |
9 |
7 |
6 |
9 |
13 |
8 |
15 |
10 |
13 |
13 |
|
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now? |
|
|
better off |
|
44 |
46 |
42 |
42 |
44 |
43 |
46 |
46 |
46 |
40 |
46 |
|
|
worse off |
|
14 |
10 |
13 |
16 |
12 |
13 |
12 |
13 |
11 |
13 |
12 |
|
QUESTION 2 difference |
|
30 |
36 |
29 |
26 |
32 |
30 |
34 |
33 |
35 |
27 |
34 |
|
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in Australia as a whole. In the next 12 months, do you expect we?ll
have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad? |
|
|
good times |
|
47 |
48 |
43 |
43 |
41 |
44 |
43 |
39 |
45 |
45 |
46 |
|
|
bad times |
|
20 |
14 |
19 |
20 |
18 |
16 |
16 |
16 |
14 |
16 |
16 |
|
QUESTION 3 difference |
|
27 |
34 |
24 |
23 |
23 |
28 |
27 |
23 |
31 |
29 |
30 |
|
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in Australia as a whole, we?ll have continuous
good times during the next 5 years of so> or we?ll have bad times> or some good and some bad? |
|
|
good times |
|
41 |
39 |
35 |
35 |
35 |
37 |
37 |
33 |
37 |
34 |
33 |
|
|
bad times |
|
17 |
13 |
18 |
15 |
14 |
15 |
15 |
13 |
15 |
19 |
16 |
|
QUESTION 4 difference |
|
24 |
26 |
17 |
20 |
21 |
22 |
11 |
20 |
22 |
15 |
17 |
|
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time> or a bad time> for people to buy major household times? |
|
|
good time to buy |
|
62 |
59 |
60 |
60 |
56 |
62 |
58 |
53 |
58 |
53 |
51 |
|
|
bad time to buy |
|
13 |
12 |
13 |
10 |
13 |
10 |
11 |
14 |
13 |
13 |
18 |
|
QUESTION 5 difference |
|
49 |
47 |
47 |
50 |
43 |
52 |
47 |
39 |
45 |
40 |
33 |
|
|
|
Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating |
|
126.8 |
130.4 |
124.4 |
125.0 |
125.6 |
128.9 |
127.6 |
126 |
128.9 |
124.8 |
125.5 |
|
|
* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100.0 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give a favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions. |
Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating*
for the component questions over the more recent surveys are as follows: |
|
2005 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Interviews |
1,141 |
1,250 |
1,181 |
1,074 |
1,092 |
1,070 |
1,038 |
1,077 |
1,033 |
1,114 |
|
|
|
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year? |
|
Over the past year |
better off |
36 |
36 |
35 |
32 |
34 |
32 |
31 |
36 |
32 |
32 |
|
|
|
|
worse off |
21 |
21 |
24 |
26 |
28 |
24 |
30 |
27 |
30 |
32 |
|
|
|
QUESTION 1 difference |
15 |
15 |
11 |
6 |
6 |
8 |
1 |
9 |
2 |
0 |
|
|
|
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now? |
|
|
better off |
47 |
46 |
44 |
43 |
42 |
41 |
41 |
40 |
39 |
39 |
|
|
|
|
worse off |
11 |
11 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
20 |
16 |
21 |
26 |
|
|
|
QUESTION 2 difference |
36 |
35 |
29 |
28 |
27 |
25 |
21 |
24 |
18 |
13 |
|
|
|
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in Australia as a whole. In the next 12 months, do you expect we?ll
have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad? |
|
|
good times |
52 |
50 |
39 |
38 |
36 |
35 |
35 |
42 |
36 |
28 |
|
|
|
|
bad times |
14 |
15 |
23 |
26 |
24 |
25 |
27 |
23 |
28 |
39 |
|
|
|
QUESTION 3 difference |
38 |
35 |
16 |
12 |
12 |
10 |
8 |
19 |
8 |
-11 |
|
|
|
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in Australia as a whole, we?ll have continuous good times
during the next 5 years of so> or we?ll have bad times> or some good and some bad? |
|
|
good times |
41 |
41 |
36 |
33 |
33 |
30 |
30 |
32 |
30 |
25 |
|
|
|
|
bad times |
14 |
13 |
16 |
22 |
21 |
23 |
22 |
24 |
25 |
29 |
|
|
|
QUESTION 4 difference |
27 |
28 |
20 |
11 |
12 |
7 |
8 |
8 |
5 |
-4 |
|
|
|
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time> or a bad time> for people to buy major household times? |
|
|
good time to buy |
61 |
58 |
50 |
53 |
55 |
55 |
61 |
57 |
52 |
50 |
|
|
|
|
bad time to buy |
11 |
11 |
18 |
14 |
14 |
12 |
14 |
14 |
14 |
21 |
|
|
|
QUESTION 5 difference |
50 |
47 |
32 |
39 |
41 |
43 |
47 |
43 |
38 |
29 |
|
|
|
|
|
Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating |
133.2 |
132.0 |
121.5 |
119.4 |
119.5 |
118.8 |
116.8 |
120.6 |
114.3 |
105.4 |
|
|
|
|
* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100.0 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give a favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.
|
|
