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A Special Morgan Poll taken over the last two nights finds a majority of Australians (56%) believe the Howard Federal Government was not ethical in its handling of the AWB Ltd. affair; and 53% (up 3% from last week’s Morgan Poll) believe AWB Ltd. did not act ethically. Only 13% (up 1%) believe the AWB acted ethically and 16% believe the Government acted ethically. Of all people, 34% down 4% were unable to say whether AWB Ltd. had acted ethically and 28% were unable to say if the Government had acted ethically.

A Morgan Poll released yesterday shows the Government’s primary vote down 1.5%, while the ALP’s primary vote was up 4%. Had an election been held, the ALP would have won with 52.5% of the ‘two-party’ preferred vote to the L-NP’s 47.5%.

In a week public awareness of the Cole Royal Commission was up 7%, with 75% now saying they have heard of it.

Of those Australians who are aware of the Royal Commission, 63% believe AWB Ltd. did not act ethically in their negotiations to sell wheat to the Iraqi Government, while 15% believe they acted ethically and 22% can’t say. Of those Australians who are aware of the Royal Commission 64% believe the Government did not act ethically on the issue, while 17% believe they acted ethically and 19% can’t say.

Gary Morgan says:

“The Cole Royal Commission has now drawn blood — not only has the first AWB Ltd. executive (Andrew Lindberg) resigned and as seen in yesterday’s Morgan Poll the ALP would win a Federal election if held today.

Fifty-six percent of Australians think the Government acted unethically in its role in the scandal, 3% more than the 53% who believe AWB Ltd. acted unethically! Opinions matter — the number of people who say AWB Ltd. acted ethically is 13% with 34% undecided.

In just a week, the heat is now on the Howard Government.”

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted on the evenings of February 8-9, 2006, with an Australia-wide sample of 667 respondents aged 14 and over.

Are You Aware Of The Royal Commission Into The AWB’s Dealings With The Iraqi Government?

Respondents were first asked:  "Next about the Royal Commission into AWB Ltd.’s (formerly the Australian Wheat Board) dealings with the Iraqi Government under the United Nations oil-for-food program.  Are you aware of the Royal commission or not?”

Men were more likely than women (80% cf 71%) to be aware of the Royal Commission into AWB Ltd.’s dealings with the Iraqi Government under the United Nations oil-for-food program.  Analysis by age shows that Australians aged over 50 were the most likely (88%) to be aware of the Royal Commission. 

	Total All People 14+	Total All People 14+	Analysis by Sex and Age
	1-2 Feb 2006	8-9 Feb 2006	Men	Women	14-17#	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%		%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Yes, aware	68	75	80	71	31	42	77	83	88
No, not aware	32	25	20	29	69	58	23	17	12
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

People living in capital cities were more likely that those in country areas (77% cf 73%) to be aware of the Royal Commission.  On a state-by-state basis, People from Western Australia were more likely (78%) to be aware of the Royal Commission, with South Australians and Territorians the least likely (69%).

	Total All People 14+	Total All People 14+	Analysis by Region and State
	1-2 Feb 2006	8-9 Feb 2006	Capital Cities	Country Areas	NSW	Vic	Qld	SA/NT	WA	Tas#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Yes, aware	68	75	77	73	77	75	74	69	78	74
No, not aware	32	25	23	27	23	25	26	31	22	26
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

 # Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Analysis by voting intention shows that Independent and Other Candidate supporters were the most likely (92%) to be aware of the Royal Commission, with Family First supporters the least likely (72%) to be aware. 

	Total All People 14+	Total All People 14+	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	1-2 Feb 2006	8-9 Feb 2006	L-NP	ALP	Aust. Dems#	The Greens	One Nation#	Family First#	Ind/ Other#	No Answer
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Yes, aware	68	75	78	81	82	83	86	72	92	45
No, not aware	32	25	22	19	18	17	14	28	8	55
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Did AWB Ltd. Act Ethically In Their Negotiations To Sell Wheat To The Iraqi Government?

Respondents were then asked:  " In your opinion, did AWB Ltd. act ethically in their negotiations to sell wheat to the Iraqi Government, or not?”

Men were more likely (58%) than women (49%) to believe AWB Ltd. did not act ethically in their negotiations to sell wheat to the Iraqi Government.  Analysis by age shows that those aged over 35 were the most likely (60%) to believe AWB Ltd. did not act ethically.

	Total All People 14+	Total All People 14+	Analysis by Sex and Age
	1-2 Feb 2006	8-9 Feb 2006	Men	Women	14-17#	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Yes acted ethically	12	13	16	10	18	14	6	12	16
No, did not act ethically	50	53	58	49	31	34	50	60	60
Can’t say	38	34	26	41	51	52	44	28	24
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

People living in capital cities were more likely that those in country areas (56% cf 49%) to believe AWB Ltd. did not act ethically. On a state by state basis, people in Victoria were the most likely (56%) and South Australians and Territorians the least likely (46%) to believe AWB Ltd. did not act ethically.

	Total All People 14+	Total All People 14+	Analysis by Region and State
	1-2 Feb 2006	8-9 Feb 2006	Capital Cities	Country Areas	NSW	Vic	Qld	SA/NT	WA	Tas#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Yes acted ethically	12	13	12	15	13	16	11	14	18	12
No, did not act ethically	50	53	56	49	53	55	51	46	60	47
Can’t say	38	34	32	36	34	39	38	40	22	41
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

 Analysis by voting intention shows that Australian Democrat supporters were the most likely (83%) to believe AWB Ltd. did not act ethically, whilst L-NP supporters were the least likely (37%) to believe AWB Ltd. did not act ethically.

	Total All People 14+	Total All People 14+	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	1-2 Feb 2006	8-9 Feb 2006	L-NP	ALP	Aust. Dems#	The Greens	One Nation#	Family First#	Ind/ Other#	No Answer
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Yes acted ethically	12	13	22	7	-	5	-	-	12	15
No, did not act ethically	50	53	37	70	83	65	76	56	67	37
Can’t say	38	34	41	23	17	30	24	44	21	48
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Australians who were aware of the Royal Commission were more likely to believe AWB Ltd. did not act ethically than those who were not aware (63% cf 22%).

	Total All People 14+	Total All People 14+	Analysis by Whether Aware Of The Royal Commission
	1-2 Feb 2006	8-9 Feb 2006	Aware	Not Aware
	%	%	%	%
Yes acted ethically	12	13	15	8
No, did not act ethically	50	53	63	22
Can’t say	38	34	22	70
Total	100	100	100	100

Did The Federal Government Act Ethically On This Issue Or Not?

Respondents were then asked:  “Recently there has been discussion about whether or how much the Federal Government knew of AWB Ltd. paying bribes to the Iraqi Government in their negotiations to sell wheat.  From what you know or have heard, do you think the Federal Government acted ethically on this issue, or not?”

Men were more likely (58%) than women (55%) to believe the Government did not act ethically on the issue.  Analysis by age shows that those aged 35-49 were the most likely (62%) to believe the Government did not act ethically.

	Total All People 14+	Analysis by Sex and Age
	8-9 Feb 2006	Men	Women	14-17#	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Yes acted ethically	16	20	11	17	16	10	14	19
No, did not act ethically	56	58	55	43	45	54	62	60
Can’t say	28	22	34	40	39	36	24	21
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

On a state by state basis, people in Western Australia were the most likely (64%) and people in New South Wales the least likely (53%) to believe the Government did not act ethically.

	Total All People 14+	Analysis by Region and State
	8-9 Feb 2006	Capital Cities	Country Areas	NSW	Vic	Qld	SA/NT	WA	Tas#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Yes acted ethically	16	13	20	18	16	16	14	10	13
No, did not act ethically	56	58	54	53	60	54	54	64	62
Can’t say	28	29	26	29	24	30	31	26	25
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

 # Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Analysis by voting intention shows that One Nation supporters were the most likely (86%) to believe the Government did not act ethically, whilst L-NP supporters were the least likely (34%) to believe the Government did not act ethically.

	Total All People 14+	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	8-9 Feb 2006	L-NP	ALP	Aust. Dems#	The Greens	One Nation#	Family First#	Ind/ Other#	No Answer
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Yes acted ethically	16	33	6	-	2	-	7	-	15
No, did not act ethically	56	34	76	75	72	86	55	82	44
Can’t say	28	33	18	25	26	14	38	18	41
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Australians who were aware of the Royal Commission were more likely to believe the Government did not act ethically than those who were not aware (64% cf 33%).

	Total All People 14+	Analysis by Whether Aware Of The Royal Commission
	8-9 Feb 2006	Aware	Not Aware
	%	%	%
Yes acted ethically	16	17	12
No, did not act ethically	56	64	33
Can’t say	28	19	55
Total	100	100	100

The above tables show Australians’ attitudes towards AWB Ltd’s dealings with the Iraqi Government under the United Nations oil-for-food program, analysed by Sex, Age, Region, State and Federal Voting Intention.

The complete analysis of results by demographics and regions is available on subscription.

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian member of the Gallup International Association.

No Other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:       Office (03) 9224 5213         Mobile 0411 129 094       Home (03) 9419 3242

Michele Levine:   Office (03) 9224 5215         Mobile 0411 129 093       Home (03) 9817 3066

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian member of the Gallup International Association.

No Other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.

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