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In mid-February, following an historic fortnight in Parliament and the ongoing Cole Royal Commission into AWB Ltd.’s grain deals with Iraq, primary support for the L-NP Government fell 0.5% to 40% - 6.4% below the result at the October 2004 Federal election. Primary support for the ALP was also down 1.5% to 40.5% - 2.9% higher than their result at the 2004 Federal election.

If preferences of minor parties are allocated as they were at the 2004 Federal election (ALP — 60.5%, L-NP — 39.5%) the ‘two-party’ preferred vote would be unchanged from early February, ALP — 52.5% and L-NP — 47.5%. Had a Federal election been held in mid-February, the ALP would have won.

Among the minor parties, support for The Greens was 8% (unchanged), Australian Democrats 2.5% (up 1%), Family First 2% (unchanged), One Nation 1% (unchanged) and Other Parties and Independent Candidates 6% (up 1%).

On the important question of who the electorate thinks will win the next Federal election, now 60% (down 2%) think the L-NP will win, 27% (unchanged) think the ALP will win and 13% (up 2%) can’t say.

Gary Morgan says:

“In a fortnight not short on news, support was slightly down for the major parties. The RU486 bill made Parliamentary  history, Kerry Packer was farewelled at a State Memorial in Sydney, rumblings about Government knowledge of AWB kickbacks continued and the “Bali 9” were sentenced, yet overall  the political landscape remains almost unchanged from two weeks  ago.”

“The AWB scandal dominates the headlines- if an election were held today Labor would win.”

During the period:

• The Senate and the House of Representatives voted to pass a Private Member's Bill ending the Health Minister's ability to ban the abortion pill RU486 placing the decision to introduce it with the Therapeutic Goods Administration instead. The conscience vote was the first time a successful Private Members Bill has been sponsored by members of four different political parties.
• The Cole Royal Commission into AWB Ltd.’s (formerly the Australian Wheat Board) agreements to sell grain to Iraq under the United Nations’ ‘Oil-for-Food’ programme continued with managing director of AWB, Andrew Lindberg, announcing his resignation following revelations that around $300 million in kickbacks were paid by AWB to the regime of Saddam Hussein. Government officials including Prime Minister John Howard denied having prior knowledge of the kickbacks.
• State, Territory and Federal Governments agreed to increase spending by over $1 billion on new health initiatives following a Council of Australian Governments (COAG) meeting in Canberra.
• Convicted drug smugglers, “the Bali 9”, faced sentencing in Indonesia. Alleged ring-leaders, Andrew Chan and Myuran Sukumaran, were sentenced to death by firing squad, while the seven others were sentenced to life in prison for their involvement in smuggling heroin out of Indonesia.
• Kerry Packer, formerly Australia’s wealthiest man, was farewelled in a State Memorial in Sydney.

Special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research in which respondents gave their reason for voting was conducted on February 11/12, 2005.

Some ALP supporters continued to voice concern with the policies and leadership of the L-NP, saying: “The Howard Government have lost my complete trust due to ‘children overboard’, the new Industrial Relations reforms and what they are doing to people with disabilities”, “I do not like Industrial Relations changes and I’m sceptical about the Wheat Board”, “The Liberals are too manipulative.  They are the worse of two evils”, “I do not like John Howard.  He makes promises before the election and then does not keep them” and “I think the Federal Government has a history of not telling the truth.  They also have policies that I don’t agree with - i.e. the treatment of refugees”.

ALP Supporters were largely satisfied with the policies and values of the Labor Party, with comments such as: “The ALP are more committed to issues that effect people”, “Labor are the only Party who will look after the environment and the average person”, “I prefer them to Liberals — their ideals are better.  They offer a better deal for Uni students” and “Labor is more concerned with family values”.

Supporters of the L-NP were satisfied with the performance of the Government and the leadership of John Howard, saying: “John Howard has the brains”, “They are probably the most trusted Party — probably still got some principles”, “Howard is honourable and has done well in the hard trying times.  Economically, no-one has done more for the people of this country” and “Because of Mr Howard — he has been a brilliant man.  They think of both Parties, not just themselves.  I like their international policies.  They did the right thing with Iraq — protecting our country”.

Other L-NP supporters continued to be concerned about stability and unification within the Labor Party, and believed there is not a viable alternative: “I don’t think the other choice is viable.  The ALP don’t seem to have definite policies or financial policies”, “There are no options.  They are the only Party capable of running the country”, “The Opposition has nothing going for it at the moment.  They’ve recycled Beazley and all they do is ‘nit-pick’ and “Labor is incompetent and corrupt”.

This latest Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekend of February 11/12 & 18/19, 2006, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 2,056 electors. Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today - which party would receive your first preference?” Of all electors surveyed, 5.5% (up 1%) did not name a party.

Gary Morgan	Office (03) 9224 5213	Mobile 0411 129 094	Home (03) 9419 3242
Michele Levine	Office (03) 9224 5215	Mobile 0411 129 093	Home (03) 9817 3066

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)
	L-NP	ALP
Election March 2, 1996	53.6	46.4
Election October 3, 1998	49	51
Election November 10, 2001	51	49
Election October 9, 2004	52.7	47.3
MORGAN POLL	Preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote		Preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2004 election
Oct 30/31 & Novr 6/7, 2004	50.5	49.5	50.5	49.5
Nov 13/14 & 20/21, 2004	50	50	50.5	49.5
Nov 27/28 & Dec 4/5, 2004	52.5	47.5	53	47
Dec 11/12 & 18/19, 2004	51	49	52.5	47.5
Jan 8/9 & 15/16, 2005	53.5	46.5	53	47
Jan 22/23 & 29/30, 2005	51.5	48.5	51.5	48.5
Feb 5/6 & 12/13, 2005	51.5	48.5	52	48
Feb 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	52	48	52	48
Mar 5/6, 2005	47.5	52.5	48	52
Mar 12/13, 2005	51.5	48.5	52	48
Mar 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	50.5	49.5	50.5	49.5
April 2/3 & 9/10, 2005	46	54	47	53
April 16/17 & 23/24, 2005	48	52	49	51
April 30/May 1 & May 7/8, 2005	47.5	52.5	48	52
May 14/15, 2005	47.5	52.5	49.5	50.5
May 21/22 & 28/29, 2005	51	49	51.5	48.5
June 4/5 & 11/12, 2005	49.5	50.5	50	50
June 18/19 & 25/26, 2005	48	52	49.5	50.5
July 2/3 & 9/10, 2005	48.5	51.5	49	51
July 16/17 & 23/24, 2005	48.5	51.5	49.5	50.5
July 30/31 & August 6/7, 2005	47	53	48	52
August 13/14 & 20/21, 2005	46.5	53.5	46.5	53.5
August 27/28 & September 3/4, 2005	51	49	51.5	48.5
September 10/11, 2005	46.5	53.5	47	53
September 17/18, 2005	52	48	52.5	47.5
September 24/25 & October 1/2, 2005	48.5	51.5	49.5	50.5
October 8/9 & 15/16, 2005	46.5	53.5	47	53
October 22/23 & 29/30, 2005	45.5	54.5	47	53
November 5/6, 2005	43.5	56.5	46	54
November 12/13, 2005	50	50	51	49
November 19/20 & 26/27, 2005	41.5	58.5	43	57
December 3/4 & 10/11, 2005	45	55	46	54
December 17/18, 2005	48	52	48	52
January 7/8 & 14/15, 2006	45	55	46	54
January 21/22 & 24/25, 2006	51	49	50	50
February 4/5, 2006	45.5	54.5	47.5	52.5
February 11/12 & 18/19, 2006	47.5	52.5	47.5	52.5

TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES (%)
	January 7/8 & 14/15		January 21/22 & 28/29		February 4/5		February 11/12 & 18/19
MORGAN POLL	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP	ALP
Australian Democrats #	28.5	71.5	53.5	46.5	30.5	69.5	30.5	69.5
The Greens	18	82	31	69	11.5	88.5	28.5	71.5
Family First#	52	48	51.5	48.5	56.5	43.5	58	42
One Nation #	56.5	43.5	60	40	52	48	53.5	46.5
Independent/Other	39.5	60.5	49.5	50.5	33.5	66.5	45.5	54.5