SA: ALP Set To Win Coming SA Election
| Finding No. 3989 -
March 04, 2006 |
In January — February, primary support for the ALP in South Australia rose 1.5% to 50.5%, while support for the Liberal Party also rose 1% to 33%.
On a two-party preferred basis, with preferences distributed as they were at the 2002 South Australian election ALP support is 59.5% with L-NP support 40.5% (both unchanged since August 2005). If a South Australian State election had been held in January — February, the ALP would have won easily, the latest Morgan Poll finds.
Among the minor parties support for the Greens was 4.5% (up 0.5%), Family First 3.5% (down 2%), Australian Democrats 3% (down 1%), One Nation 0.5% (down 0.5%) and Other Parties and Independent 5% (up 0.5%).
During the period:
- In mid- February South Australian Premier Mike Rann officially called for an election to be held on March 18. He announced that the Labor Party would focus on leadership, the economy and Labor's vision for the future during the re-election campaign and maintained that the economy, honesty and services are the key issues.
- Opposition Leader Rob Kerin launched the Liberal Party’s official election campaign with a focus on honesty and the economy. He also challenged the State Premier to extra debates which Premier Rann later accepted.
- The State Opposition accused the South Australian Government of running a pre-election advertising blitz.
- The State Opposition announced it would cut up to 4,000 public service, saving $300 million a year, if elected
- The South Australian Government promised to continue its policy of no privatisations if it is re-elected next month. Minister for Infrastructure and Energy, Pat Conlon, questioned whether the State Opposition could commit to the same policy.
- South Australian Correctional Services Minister, Terry Roberts, died of cancer. He was farewelled at a State Funeral in late February.
- The Rann Government was criticised for not resolving the State’s power crisis following power blackouts in both early and late January that affected tens of thousands throughout the State.in some cases for days on end.
- South Australia’s predicted budget surplus was cut by almost half, to $27 million despite an increase in tax revenue. Treasury documents show that nine Government Departments are on track to go over budget.
Respondents gave reasons for voting for their preferred Party during special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research, conducted on February 18/19, 2006.
Some respondents who supported the Labor Party agreed with Labor’s policies saying: “Labor Party meets the needs of the community better than Liberal for health, education and social welfare”, “I’m a socialist at heart” and “Feel that Labor is more reflective of my lifestyle”.
Other Labor supporters criticised the Liberal Party saying: “Liberals have nothing to offer over Labor”, “Liberal Party is in disarray” and “Liberals are incompetent”.
Some respondents who supported the Liberal Party didn’t like the Labor Government said: “Mike Rann is too slick”, “Don’t think Labor have done all that well”, “Present doing a bad job, mismanaging the economy” and “I don’t trust Mike Rann one little bit”.
Other Liberal Party supporters preferred Liberal policies commenting: “Liberals have better job creation programs, business people are against the union influence on Labor”, and “I took a little study in politics and my answers lean towards Liberal”, “they do a better job on unemployment”.
Preferences of supporters of the Greens (ALP — 93% cf Lib. — 7%), Australian Democrats (ALP — 80.5% cf Lib. — 19.5%) and Family First (ALP — 56.5% cf Lib. — 43.5%) all favoured the ALP State Government while preferences of supporters of One Nation (Lib. — 100% cf and ALP — 0%) Other Parties and Independent Candidates (Lib — 69% cf ALP — 31%) favoured the L-NP Opposition.
This Morgan Poll on South Australian State Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face among 558 electors throughout South Australia during the months of January and February 2006. Electors were asked: “If a State Election were being held today - which Party would receive your first preference?” Of all electors surveyed, 5% (up 2%) did not name a party.
For further information:
|
Gary Morgan |
Office (03) 9224 5213 |
Mobile 0411 129 094 |
Home (03) 9419 3242 |
|
Michele Levine |
Office (03) 9224 5215 |
Mobile 0411 129 093 |
Home (03) 9817 3066 |
SOUTH AUSTRALIAN STATE VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY (%)
| PRIMARY VOTE |
ALP |
Liberal |
Aust.
Dem.# |
Family
First#^ |
The
Greens# |
One
Nation# |
Ind./
Others#* |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
| Election February 9, 2002 |
36.3 |
40 |
7.5 |
2.6 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
8.8 |
| |
| May - June 2003 |
52 |
32 |
4 |
2 |
5 |
1 |
4.5 |
| July - August 2003 |
48 |
30 |
7 |
2 |
6 |
0.5 |
6.5 |
| September - October 2003 |
47 |
33 |
6 |
1.5 |
4 |
1.5 |
7 |
| November - December 2003 |
45 |
34.5 |
7 |
1 |
6.5 |
1 |
5 |
| January - February 2004 |
53 |
32.5 |
3.5 |
2 |
4 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
| March - April 2004 |
49.5 |
32.5 |
3.5 |
2 |
7.5 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
| May - June 2004 |
51 |
32.5 |
4.5 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
2 |
4 |
| July - August 2004 |
53 |
33 |
3.5 |
1.5 |
6 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
| September - October 2004 |
53.5 |
33 |
3 |
4 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
| November - December 2004 |
50.5 |
36 |
2 |
4 |
4 |
0.5 |
3 |
| January - February 2005 |
45 |
38.5 |
4 |
4 |
5.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
| March - April 2005 |
44.5 |
38 |
4 |
4 |
3.5 |
1 |
5 |
| May - June 2005 |
54 |
33 |
1 |
4 |
4 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
| July - August 2005 |
53 |
32 |
3 |
4 |
3.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
| September - October 2005 |
50 |
33 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
4.5 |
0.5 |
5 |
| November - December 2005 |
49 |
32 |
4 |
5.5 |
4 |
1 |
4.5 |
| January - February 2006 |
50.5 |
33 |
3 |
3.5 |
4.5 |
0.5 |
5 |
* Includes votes for the National Party
# Results from sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.
^ Family First was included as an option on South Australian State Voting Intention in November 2000. |
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE |
| |
ALP |
Liberal |
|
|
| |
% |
% |
|
|
| Election February 9, 2002 |
49.1 |
50.9 |
|
|
| MORGAN POLL |
Preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote |
Preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2002 election |
| |
ALP |
Liberal |
ALP |
Liberal |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
| July - August 2003 |
60 |
40 |
60 |
40 |
| September - October 2003 |
59 |
41 |
58 |
42 |
| November - December 2003 |
58 |
42 |
56 |
44 |
| January - February 2004 |
62 |
38 |
61 |
39 |
| March - April 2004 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
59 |
41 |
| May - June 2004 |
62.5 |
37.5 |
60 |
40 |
| July - August 2004 |
63 |
37 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
| September - October 2004 |
61 |
39 |
61 |
39 |
| November - December 2004 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
58 |
42 |
| January - February 2005 |
54 |
46 |
54 |
46 |
| March - April 2005 |
53.5 |
46.5 |
54 |
46 |
| May - June 2005 |
62 |
38 |
61 |
39 |
| July - August 2005 |
62 |
38 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
| September - October 2005 |
62.5 |
37.5 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
| November - December 2005 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
| January - February 2006 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
| TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES |
| |
Jul - Aug
2005 |
Sep - Oct
2005 |
Nov - Dec
2005 |
Jan - Feb
2006 |
| MORGAN POLL |
ALP |
Lib. |
ALP |
Lib. |
ALP |
Lib. |
ALP |
Lib. |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
| Australian Democrats## |
67.5 |
32.5 |
94.5 |
5.5 |
61.5 |
39.5 |
80.5 |
19.5 |
| Family First## |
38 |
62 |
57 |
43 |
43 |
57 |
56.5 |
43.5 |
| The Greens ## |
95 |
5 |
96.5 |
3.5 |
70.5 |
29.5 |
93 |
7 |
| One Nation ## |
83 |
17 |
55 |
45 |
76 |
24 |
- |
100 |
| Independent/Other ## |
57.5 |
42.5 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
68 |
32 |
31 |
69 |
## Results from sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.
Sample: 558 electors
Interviewed: January - February 2006.
5% (up 2%) did not name a party. |
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