ALP Set To Win SA Election
| Finding No. 3995 -
March 17, 2006 |
During February and March, primary support for the ALP in South Australia was stable on 50.5%, while support for the Liberal Party fell 2% to 31%. Analysis of the latest Morgan Poll results shows support for the Labor Party remained on 50.5% after the announcement of the State election on February 20, while support for the Liberal Party dropped 1% from 31.5% before the election to 30.5% during the election campaign.
Support for the Greens was 6% during February and March up 3.6% on their result at the last election. The Greens final vote will depend on whether they distribute how-to-vote cards at all polling booths across the State. Democrats’ support over the period was 3.5%, while support for Family First was 3%.
On a two-party preferred basis, with preferences distributed as they were at the 2002 South Australian election ALP support is 61% (up 1.5%) with L-NP support 39% (down 1.5%). If a South Australian State election had been held in February - March, the ALP would have won easily, the latest Morgan Poll finds.
Gary Morgan says:
“It appears Premier Rann will be comfortably re-elected this weekend. With more than half (50.5%) of the primary vote across South Australia and 61% of the two-party preferred vote, Labor holds what looks like an unassailable lead.
A week is however a long time in politics and voters change their minds right up until they enter the voting booth.”
During the period:
- On February 20 South Australian Premier Mike Rann officially called for an election to be held on March 18. There will be 269 candidates for 22 House of Assembly electorates and 54 candidates for 11 seats in the Legislative Council.
- Premier Rann announced that the Labor Party would focus on economic management, law and order, health and education during the election campaign. Opposition Leader Rob Kerin launched the Liberal Party’s official election campaign with a focus on honesty, services and the economy. He also challenged the State Premier to extra debates which Premier Rann later accepted.
- The State Opposition accused the South Australian Government of running a pre-election advertising blitz.
- The State Opposition announced it would cut up to 4,000 public service, saving $300 million a year, if elected
- The South Australian Government promised to continue its policy of no privatisations if it is re-elected next month. Minister for Infrastructure and Energy, Pat Conlon, questioned whether the State Opposition could commit to the same policy.
- South Australian Correctional Services Minister, Terry Roberts, died of cancer. He was farewelled at a State Funeral in late February.
- South Australia’s predicted budget surplus was cut by almost half, to $27 million despite an increase in tax revenue. Treasury documents show that nine Government Departments are on track to go over budget.
Preferences of supporters of the Greens (ALP — 91.5% cf Lib. — 8.5%), Australian Democrats (ALP — 81% cf Lib. — 19%) favoured the ALP State Government, while preferences of supporters of One Nation (Lib. — 100% cf ALP — 0%) Other Parties and Independent Candidates (Lib — 71% cf ALP — 29%) favoured the L-NP Opposition, preferences of Family First voters were evenly divided (ALP — 50% cf Lib. — 50%).
This Morgan Poll on South Australian State Voting Intention was conducted face-to-face among 420 electors throughout South Australia on the weekends between February 4/5 and March 11/12, 2006. Electors were asked: “If a State Election were being held today - which Party would receive your first preference?” Of all electors surveyed, 5% (unchanged) did not name a party.
For further information:
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Gary Morgan |
Office (03) 9224 5213 |
Mobile 0411 129 094 |
Home (03) 9419 3242 |
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SOUTH AUSTRALIAN STATE VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY (%)
| PRIMARY VOTE |
ALP |
Liberal |
Aust.
Dem.# |
Family
First#^ |
The
Greens# |
One
Nation# |
Ind./
Others#* |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
| Election February 9, 2002 |
36.3 |
40 |
7.5 |
2.6 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
8.8 |
| |
| May - June 2003 |
52 |
32 |
4 |
2 |
5 |
1 |
4.5 |
| July - August 2003 |
48 |
30 |
7 |
2 |
6 |
0.5 |
6.5 |
| September - October 2003 |
47 |
33 |
6 |
1.5 |
4 |
1.5 |
7 |
| November - December 2003 |
45 |
34.5 |
7 |
1 |
6.5 |
1 |
5 |
| January - February 2004 |
53 |
32.5 |
3.5 |
2 |
4 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
| March - April 2004 |
49.5 |
32.5 |
3.5 |
2 |
7.5 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
| May - June 2004 |
51 |
32.5 |
4.5 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
2 |
4 |
| July - August 2004 |
53 |
33 |
3.5 |
1.5 |
6 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
| September - October 2004 |
53.5 |
33 |
3 |
4 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
| November - December 2004 |
50.5 |
36 |
2 |
4 |
4 |
0.5 |
3 |
| January - February 2005 |
45 |
38.5 |
4 |
4 |
5.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
| March - April 2005 |
44.5 |
38 |
4 |
4 |
3.5 |
1 |
5 |
| May - June 2005 |
54 |
33 |
1 |
4 |
4 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
| July - August 2005 |
53 |
32 |
3 |
4 |
3.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
| September - October 2005 |
50 |
33 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
4.5 |
0.5 |
5 |
| November - December 2005 |
49 |
32 |
4 |
5.5 |
4 |
1 |
4.5 |
| January - February 2006 |
50.5 |
33 |
3 |
3.5 |
4.5 |
0.5 |
5 |
| February — March 11/12 2006 |
50.5 |
31 |
3.5 |
3 |
6 |
0.5 |
5.5 |
- Before election announcement
|
50.5 |
31.5 |
5 |
3.5 |
4 |
- |
5.5 |
- After election announcement
|
50.5 |
30.5 |
2 |
2 |
8 |
0.5 |
6.5 |
* Includes votes for the National Party
# Results from sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.
^ Family First was included as an option on South Australian State Voting Intention in November 2000. |
|
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE |
| |
ALP |
Liberal |
|
|
| |
% |
% |
|
|
| Election February 9, 2002 |
49.1 |
50.9 |
|
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| MORGAN POLL |
Preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote |
Preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2002 election |
| |
ALP |
Liberal |
ALP |
Liberal |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
| July - August 2003 |
60 |
40 |
60 |
40 |
| September - October 2003 |
59 |
41 |
58 |
42 |
| November - December 2003 |
58 |
42 |
56 |
44 |
| January - February 2004 |
62 |
38 |
61 |
39 |
| March - April 2004 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
59 |
41 |
| May - June 2004 |
62.5 |
37.5 |
60 |
40 |
| July - August 2004 |
63 |
37 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
| September - October 2004 |
61 |
39 |
61 |
39 |
| November - December 2004 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
58 |
42 |
| January - February 2005 |
54 |
46 |
54 |
46 |
| March - April 2005 |
53.5 |
46.5 |
54 |
46 |
| May - June 2005 |
62 |
38 |
61 |
39 |
| July - August 2005 |
62 |
38 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
| September - October 2005 |
62.5 |
37.5 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
| November - December 2005 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
| January - February 2006 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
59.5 |
40.5 |
| February — March 11/12 2006 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
61 |
39 |
- Before election announcement
|
61.5 |
38.5 |
60 |
40 |
- After election announcement
|
61.5 |
38.5 |
61 |
39 |
| TWO-PARTY PREFERENCES OF MINOR PARTIES |
| |
Sep - Oct
2005 |
Nov - Dec
2005 |
Jan - Feb
2006 |
Feb - Mar 11/12
2006 |
| MORGAN POLL |
ALP |
Lib. |
ALP |
Lib. |
ALP |
Lib. |
ALP |
Lib. |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
| Australian Democrats## |
94.5 |
5.5 |
61.5 |
39.5 |
80.5 |
19.5 |
81 |
19 |
| Family First## |
57 |
43 |
43 |
57 |
56.5 |
43.5 |
50 |
50 |
| The Greens ## |
96.5 |
3.5 |
70.5 |
29.5 |
93 |
7 |
91.5 |
8.5 |
| One Nation ## |
55 |
45 |
76 |
24 |
- |
100 |
- |
100 |
| Independent/Other ## |
58.5 |
41.5 |
68 |
32 |
31 |
69 |
29 |
71 |
## Results from sample sizes under 50 should be treated with caution.
Sample: 420 electors
Interviewed: February - March 11/12, 2006.
5% (unchanged) did not name a party. |
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